NotW LVII - Tempus Fugit (game thread)

[Lohrenswald]

I don't accept a luck based strategy

 

[Snerk]

Manoeuvring through life is a luck based strategy.

 

[Lohrenswald]

1. no it's not
2. mafia game isn't life

 

[Snerk]

1. yes
2. yes
3. there is no rule three

 

[Lohrenswald]

Well I'm not voting unless something convincing shows up

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

Lots of serious-sounding questions posed in my general direction.

Generic response to all:

I read those players and got a feeling in my gut that we shouldn't lynch most of them. And then Spaceman and choxxy made me feel icky.

I don't have additional info besides that. And to be fair, neither do any of you. (except mafia)

 

[BSmith1068]

Well I'm not voting unless something convincing shows up

From a statistical perspective it is better to lynch someone over no one. There is always a positive chance that even a random selection will result in a scum lynch. If there is no lynch there is effectively zero chance of killing a scum. By not participating in the lynch you are effectively resigning yourself to the zero chance side of the coin, which is inherently anti-town.

 

[Lohrenswald]

well see what I figure is that if nobody gets lynched, fewer town members die per day/night cycle, which leads to more ground to work with (night abilities)

 

[DuffKilligan]

But then we have absolutely nothing to base cases on in future days, because most cases are built on votes and how people react to them.

 

[Lohrenswald]

I primarily build cases on night actions

 

[Murska]

well see what I figure is that if nobody gets lynched, fewer town members die per day/night cycle, which leads to more ground to work with (night abilities)

Fact is, the game is generally balanced so that the scum have more power in the night than the town do, for the reason that the town has control over the day lynch. That is essentially the whole idea of the game. So if we ignore day phases, most of the time, we'll lose.

 

[Lohrenswald]

yea, but the town at this point has really no basis to make sound judgement

like we'll just have to start with stupid votes, but then some people get more votes on them for reasons, but mafia would never jump on a bandwagon day 1 because it'd be stupid to expose themselves like that, many say, and then what is there?

What is there to base something on?
I've never located the mafia team until it's too late

 

[Kennigit]

Most cases are built on people ignoring game mechanics

Eg it's why it is impossible for me to ever read takhisis as town because he *always* scummily posts things that like could be a slight mislead when I know he knows otherwise (but i can never know what he does have)

Eg today he was one of the "well it is only day 1" when I bet he is sitting on some silly day-affecting ability

Like honestly i bet if people are just truthful and don't pretend to all be cruddy little vanillas when we know everyone has a passive or active role, we'd win easily and crush the varethites

 

[Kennigit]

Like understanding how the game works in a game like this (i doubt any 1 person's individual life is important) is orders of magnitude better for the town than "oh let's see if X is scum. Oh well he wasn't! Toodaloo~~"

 

[Autolycus]

Enough of Cuth, I think I meant Cass anyway. This is the problem with time.

Lohrenswald looks tasty and obstinate.

 

[Lohrenswald]

I'm not entierly sure what you mean, Kennigit

and

well there's something I'd kinda like to say, but I'm afraid to discuss role PMs

Requesting a tally

 

[Arakhor]

Late Afternoon Tally

Spaceman98 (5): Kennigit, atheotes, ATPG, Mat93, Jarrema
Lohrenswald (4): Lassie, Cuthillius, Takhisis, Autolycus

Autolycus (3): Sprig, Snerk, BSmith1068
Jarrema (3): Al Sipsclar, Golden1Knight, DuffKilligan
Cuthillius (2): Murska, spaceman98

choxorn (1): Zack
Mat93 (1): choxorn
Murska (1): Newyn
dicetosser1 (1): Cass_
Zack (1): dicetosser1

Not Voting: Lohrenswald
Not Posting: KingMorgan


There are now less than four hours left in Day One!

 

[Lohrenswald]

Not Alive (0)
Nobody

Dead (0)
Nobody (yet)

curious

for all the people that read a lot into this, I'm sorry

Spaceman98, why should I not vote against you?

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

@ Lohrenswald

Spoiler :

From a statistical perspective it is better to lynch someone over no one. There is always a positive chance that even a random selection will result in a scum lynch. If there is no lynch there is effectively zero chance of killing a scum. By not participating in the lynch you are effectively resigning yourself to the zero chance side of the coin, which is inherently anti-town.

In my opinion even if this isn't persuasive,

By not voting you are giving the mafia greater control over the day's lynch, and during the night they have a distinct advantage.

Town has to have an advantage somewhere, and that is by having enough people to outvote the mafia and also allow for the usual guessing mistakes (margin of error). That's why you should vote.

It's not super critical d1, the difference between not voting and voting someone with no other votes is negligible here. However, there is something to be said for even those sorts of votes-

Should you vote a mafioso, for example, early enough in the round for it to matter (right now, probably doesn't matter unless you're joining a wagon) then it helps others understand you intended to lynch a mafioso that day.

That's helpful to your team in reading you.

Sure the odds are low, and mafia can vote for other mafia members, but you have increased the odds a mafia gets lynched that day. That sometimes is all you can do.


That's more along the lines of "what is good strategy" and can be discussed after the game in more detail.

It is also a viable idea to deliberately give the mafia more control over the vote by not voting, and keeping the tally votes on any given candidate low to see what they do with it. The problem with that is that it's easy for the mafia to counter that strategy by also not voting, and now there's less data to work with all game. Voting analysis is one of the few villagery things I'm good at, nothing to analyze is particularly bad for me and others who rely on it.

 

[Mat93]

@ Lohrenswald

Am I correct that Lohrens is questioning the value of lynching on day 1, when they are also playing in a game where a scum was lynched day 1?

unvote; vote: Lohrens