Prediction Thread

IglooDude said:
Resulting in a case that goes to SCOTUS in near-record time, and I like to think that it'll go 9-0 against Trump because even the originalist/textualist wing will concede that it simply never occurred to the founders that someone elected president would be so openly corrupt as to try to pardon themselves. And if that goes Trump's way, I then predict a constitutional amendment proposed and passing to correct the founders' lack of vision in that regard.
Click to expand...

There is zero chance of this. Heads of state have immunity for a number of reasons, some actually good. And none would want to have that even so much as questioned, much less would a court confirm dropping it.
 
I predict that neither of the two fantasies postulated by Trump's opponents:

(a) he fixes the result and stays on (nightmare)
(b) he is imprisoned for crimes (wet dream)

will come to pass.

I predict that Dobald Trump will go quietly, most of his businesses will go bankrupt,
but he will have enough dosh secreted away to comfortably live out his days.

I predict that historians will discuss how it was that both parties were so
disorganised as to allow such a larger than life chancer to become POTUS,
but likely conclude that his presidency had no long term impact.
 
I predict Trump will be reelected and appoint another Supreme Court Justice or two.
 
I’ll go bold and say 55-41 now.

The great thing about outlandish predictions is that you only need to get ONE right to be hailed as a genius, a visionary, a sage. All the ones that stink, well, they get swept under the rug. After all, they’re a genius!

I call this the “Jim Cramer Effect.”
 
Okay, let's do a prediction game

2 points if you successfully hard call a state/EC district (ie Maine and Nebraska). You lose 5 points if you hard call a state and get it wrong.
1 point if you successfully soft call a state. You lose 2 points if you soft call a state and get it wrong
You can also leave a state a toss-up, and neither gain nor lose any points.

https://www.270towin.com/

My own prediction is

https://www.270towin.com/maps/1koj3

Being a bit bold, with only 1 tossup.

Hard call all Clinton 2016 states, Nebraska swing district, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

Soft call Maine 2nd, Georgia, Iowa and Texas

Tossup Ohio.

For Trump soft call South Carolina, Montana and Alaska. It's not that there is an amazing chance of them flipping as they are all fairly red states, but there is an outside possibility, and this leaves it open for a 2008 style Indiana flip that comes semi out of the blue.

The reminder, hard call for Trump.
 
Last edited:
I’m calling a prediction I did not make here.

Here in Osaka they held a referendum on abolishing the city and turning it into special wards like Tokyo. The particulars of the plan I won’t get into, but had its merits.

This was not necessarily a left-right kind of thing: the Osaka Restoration Association (the governing party of the city and prefecture, overwhelmingly popular) is considered right. Them and the Komeito, a right-centrist party with strong backing from Soka Gakkai (a Buddhist religious organization) both approved of the plan.

The Liberal Democratic Party, the face of national politics for nearly six decades is a mostly conservative party and opposed it. The Constitutional Democratic Party (center-left) and Japanese Communist Party also opposed it.

Public opinion polls had support at 6-7 points ahead of oppose, but ultimately oppose won by a margin of about 10,000 votes (same as the last time the referendum was held back in 2015.) I thought the polls overestimated support, and I was right!

I think Governor Yoshimura and Mayor Matsui picked a bad time to have it. That was just a gut feeling.

So in the end, I won’t be needing to update my address labels.
 
Drakle said:
Okay, let's do a prediction game
Click to expand...
https://www.270towin.com/maps/Kn2Yn

I think Joe is going to flip some states like Georgia and Texas.
Spoiler :
2020 map prediction.png

If this does come to pass, does anyone think the GOP will reform itself or will keep on marching to the tune of overt racism?

amadeus said:
I’m calling a prediction I did not make here.

Here in Osaka they held a referendum on abolishing the city and turning it into special wards like Tokyo. The particulars of the plan I won’t get into, but had its merits.

This was not necessarily a left-right kind of thing: the Osaka Restoration Association (the governing party of the city and prefecture, overwhelmingly popular) is considered right. Them and the Komeito, a right-centrist party with strong backing from Soka Gakkai (a Buddhist religious organization) both approved of the plan.

The Liberal Democratic Party, the face of national politics for nearly six decades is a mostly conservative party and opposed it. The Constitutional Democratic Party (center-left) and Japanese Communist Party also opposed it.

Public opinion polls had support at 6-7 points ahead of oppose, but ultimately oppose won by a margin of about 10,000 votes (same as the last time the referendum was held back in 2015.) I thought the polls overestimated support, and I was right!

I think Governor Yoshimura and Mayor Matsui picked a bad time to have it. That was just a gut feeling.

So in the end, I won’t be needing to update my address labels.
Click to expand...
What % margin was the 10,000 votes?
 
Last edited:
hobbsyoyo said:
What % margin was the 10,000 votes?
Click to expand...
Less than 1%.

Last numbers I saw were something like 600,000-something vs. another 600,000-something.

I had predicted the referendum would be rejected by 2-3%. I was off on the numbers but still got the ultimate result right.
 
I'm seeing some unexpected ass-covering among the media in the US, akin to the maneuvers of the FBI just prior to the last election: appeasing both sides just in case the unexpected won. Weird as the second wave of the virus ought to have been a fatal setback to Trump.
My prediction is that the polls in the US will again turn out to be wrong. But no prediction on who will win. Probably private polls are showing a tighter race, else this ass-covering would not be happening.
Early votes only start to be counted on election day right?
 
onejayhawk said:
Trump 51%, Biden 45%, 3rd part/write-in 4%. Republicans take back the House by a four vote margin, narrowest in history. Hunter Biden and Jim Biden are indicted.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/GXJ20
Click to expand...

You think national polls are off by around 14 points then (from Biden +8 to Trump +6). I'd predict they're off by 2 nationally (Biden +6 in the end), pretty much like in 2016.
 
Trump takes it to the courts.
 
innonimatu said:
Early votes only start to be counted on election day right?
Click to expand...
Not in most states, and most of the hotly contested ones like Florida are already counting their early votes. While there's a chance we won't know the results on Tuesday, there is also a good chance we will if the polls are close to accurate. We know that if the polls are at least as accurate as 2016, Biden will win. Even if the polls are slightly less accurate than 2016, Biden will still win. The polls would have to be significantly worse than 2016 for Biden to lose at this point, regardless of how long it takes us to count final tallies.

Birdjaguar said:
Trump takes it to the courts.
Click to expand...
If it's a blowout, he'll be rebuffed by the Court and be denied a case IMO. He will try though, and if the results are not known by the end of next week then I expect they'll hear the case arguments. What happens if they hear the case is anyone's guess and highly dependent on the particulars. I think if there's any wiggle room for Barrett and Kavanaugh to give the election to Trump with at least a veneer of propriety, they'll take it. I do somewhat expect Roberts to vote to stop Trump efforts but I don't think he'll be the swing vote on the new court on this issue.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

amadeus
2024 Primary Prognostication (P.S. Politics Prohibited)
Replies
6
Views
729
Gori the Grey
Gori the Grey
Gori the Grey
  • Locked
2024 US Presidential Election Watch Party
34 35 36
Replies
705
Views
26K
Birdjaguar
Birdjaguar
Zardnaar
Western Wanderwaffe
2
Replies
38
Views
1K
Lexicus
Lexicus
amadeus
Elon Musk’s Third Party
2
Replies
38
Views
926
Klaus Hergersheimer
Klaus Hergersheimer
V
Marriage
2
Replies
25
Views
721
Voidwalkin
V
Back
Top Bottom