Prediction Thread

[hobbsyoyo]

I listened to that 538 podcast about shy Trump voters and it was entertaining. Nate Silver comes down fairly hard on them not existing and had the data and arguments to back it up.

He did actually make the case that there's a better argument / more data to show there are shy Biden voters, but he didn't do a deep dive on that and I don't think he thinks it's a major factor.

 

[BenitoChavez]

Looks fun! This is what I predict, though NH should be blue. I don't feel like doing it over again.

Spoiler :

 

[Zkribbler]

Looks fun! This is what I predict

Me too, but I'm saying Texas will go blue because I'm deranged.

 

[Sommerswerd]

@Gori the Grey are you still sticking with the election being called by 1AM?

If yes why so confident?

 

[IglooDame]

I predict that on Wednesday morning, with no 'official' winner announced, Trump does an Oval Office address and claims victory.

Yes, I do occasionally lean pessimistic, why do you ask?

 

[Birdjaguar]

I predict that on Wednesday morning, with no 'official' winner announced, Trump does an Oval Office address and claims victory.

Yes, I do occasionally lean pessimistic, why do you ask?

I think he will tweet it late Tuesday night.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I predict that on Wednesday morning, with no 'official' winner announced, Trump does an Oval Office address and claims victory.

Yes, I do occasionally lean pessimistic, why do you ask?

I predict that at midnight the map looks like this, with TX, GA and FL being listed as "too close to call" as they try to finish counting all their mail in ballots, needing to get through them all because of how close the vote is, while WI, MI and PA are being listed as "too early to call" as they haven't even begun to get through their mail in ballots:

I think Trump nevertheless claims victory before midnight, declaring that "people are saying" that he has already won all 6 states, the Democrats know it and they are just holdiong up the results and trying to steal the election. Only FOX News covers his declaration of victory, while the other networks refuse to cover it. FOX News, while covering his declaration, resists actually calling the election for him, instead running with a cagey "Trump victory?: President declares victory as election results still in question" headline. Trump tweets in outrage at FOX News and the "dishonest media" for failing to announce he is the winner.

As soon as one of those states goes for Biden he would be declared the winner, however Biden will need to win FL or GA to keep it out of the SCOTUS. If his win is dependent on WI, MI, PA, NC or TX, its going to be decided in the SCOTUS, or at a minimum they will be asked to intervene.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I think at midnight the map looks like this, with TX, GA and FL being listed as "too close to call" as they try to finish counting all their mail in ballots, needing to get through them all because of how close the vote is, while WI, MI and PA are being listed as "too early to call" as they haven't even begun to get through their mail in ballots:

I think Trump nevertheless claims victory before midnight, declaring that "people are saying" that he has already won all 6 states, the Democrats know it and they are just holdiong up the results and trying to steal the election. Only FOX News covers his declaration of victory, while the other networks refuse to cover it. FOX News, while covering his declaration, resists actually calling the election for him, instead running with a cagey "Trump victory?: President declares victory as election results still in question" headline. Trump tweets in outrage at FOX News and the "dishonest media" for failing to announce he is the winner.

As soon as one of those states goes for Biden he would be declared the winner, however Biden will need to win FL or GA to keep it out of the SCOTUS. If his win is dependent on WI, MI, PA, NC or TX, its going to be decided in the SCOTUS, or at a minimum they will be asked to intervene.

The takeaway for me is Biden only has to win a single one of those 6 contests to be over the top if the rest of your map is accurate.

The federal judge in Texas did the right thing and rejected the effort to invalidate 125k votes in Houston.

 

[Gori the Grey]

@Gori the Grey are you still sticking with the election being called by 1AM?

If yes why so confident?

Yes!

The turnout against Trump is going to be in such overwhelming numbers (in states where there is no complication from late counting of ballots) that it's going to be clear to everyone that Biden has won. News organizations will call it on that basis. They've never needed all the votes to be in to call a state; as soon as they get a certain percentage in certain key precincts, their formulas kick in and they can predict. Kornacki out front shoulda told ya.

That said, I predict all of what the rest of you predict. Despite all of that, Trump will declare that he is the winner, that it's only massive voter fraud that is making it look like a Biden victory, etc. etc.

 

[Phrossack]

How I think it might turn out (pt 1):

How I worry it turns out, pt. 2:

Biden miraculously wins but Trump declares he won anyway, rejects the outcome, incites massive violence, dismantles any mechanisms the federal government has of combating the virus, appoints more judges, and generally pursues a scorched earth policy while having his thugs attack and murder opponents.

 

[innonimatu]

Only FOX News covers his declaration of victory, while the other networks refuse to cover it.

Really, abstain from a story that will be the big one for days or weeks? They couldn't help themselves even if they wanted to. Which they don't!

@Phrossack missing the disaster map.Just noticed for the first time there's a little enclave above Western Virginia, funny that. Non-contiguous state?

 

[tjs282]

Just noticed for the first time there's a little enclave above Western Virginia, funny that. Non-contiguous state?

No, it's part of Maryland, but joined to the rest of the state by an "isthmus" which is only about 2 miles wide at its narrowest point, i.e. too narrow to show up at that scale.

Virginia itself does have a sort of exclave, though: the southern end of the "Delmarva Peninsula", east of Chesapeake Bay.

 

[Lohrenswald]

Biden is going to win the election but then die before inauguration

After this I hope for the eighteenth brumiere of Donald Trump

 

[Drakle]

Florida should be called relatively early, unless it is super close. I think the night will end fairly early, because Biden will win Florida and North Carolina, and all but the most delusional will see Trump is done for. Georgia and Texas might be added to that column, which just seals the deal.

I do wonder what happens to the West Coast if we get a early call. Most of the remaining Election Day people left are Trump supporters, so there could just be a turnout collapse among them, which could swing a bunch of house districts, and swing Montana and Alaska Senate races. And really run up Biden's margins, and collapse Trump's. A GOP turnout collapse on the west coast could swing a good 2-3 popular vote percentage if it is really bad.

 

[Gori the Grey]

News organizations don't call until polls close on the West Coast.

 

[Tee Kay]

News organizations don't call until polls close on the West Coast.

*sad Alaska and Hawaii noises*

 

[Birdjaguar]

Trump loses the popular vote!

 

[amadeus]

Trump does an Oval Office address and claims victory.

Technically correct.

Prediction, since I’m doing so well at them now: if President Trump brings anything to the Supreme Court, they’ll break against his filing.

Did I just cause the Supreme Court to rule in his favor?

I need to use this smiley again:

 

[Angst]

Technically correct.

Prediction, since I’m doing so well at them now: if President Trump brings anything to the Supreme Court, they’ll break against his filing.

Did I just cause the Supreme Court to rule in his favor?

I need to use this smiley again:

Can I just hope that you're correct here? :l

 

[amadeus]

Can I just hope that you're correct here? :l

No, my predictions in this thread have so far been not good.

Think about it: I predicted that either Trump or Biden would win. Somehow, as of right now, I have managed to be wrong.