My prediction for second half of 2022 and 2023:
Russian economy will shamble on like a zombie, decaying but not collapsing due to influx of oil and gas money from the west, until the spring of 2023, when it will crash as the fuel needs drop after winter and west will be able to obtain fuel from more reliable sources. On the heels of collapse will come diminishing of the Russian sphere of influence and perhaps diminishing of RF itself. The central Asian and Caucasian countries will seek out new markets and new allies as the Russian economy won't be sufficient to maintain the current level of trade, not to mention that dealing with Russia will be considered dangerous due to instability. Some central Asian countries will fall into Chinese sphere of influence, others will drift more toward the west, often using Turkey as intermediary. Several RF members, most likely starting with Chechnya and Dagestan, will attempt to declare independence, exploiting the military and economic exhaustion of RF. This will allow retaking of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Georgia, and Transnistria by Moldova.