Prediction Thread

[AmazonQueen]

It hampers my MASCULINE ENERGY for there to be fewer concussions in sport. Anyone who dares wear protection shall be MOCKED. It is entertainment, and one of the things I love to see most is catastrophic brain damage in an athlete's later years once their body is too broken to keep playing. You AMERICANS are SISSIES, unlike us non-Americans who get concussed and LIKE IT.

I know right. Nothing like seeing a boxer past their best make a comeback attempt and just walk into punches. Such fun.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Also @hobbsyoyo, I think you're slightly overestimating the likely present/future influence of the US soccer association(s?) over FIFA/ international soccer rules.

Clarification - I don't think the US has or will have a lot of influence over international soccer. I just think the move to put helmets on the players will start there. Parents here are pretty militant about protecting their kids and once you've put a generation of kids in helmets, they'll be fine with it as adults.


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I predict the proposed train from LV to LA from the Virgin Group will be built inside of 15 years but the high speed route between SF and LA won't be built for another 40. I don't think hyperloop will be widely adopted either.

Sorry for such long range predictions, I tend to have my head in the clouds.

 

[rah]

The new star wars movie will be better than the last one but still be a let down in some way.

That's the problem with the internet. Back when the first one came out and there was no all encompassing internet, so unless you really hated it, you kept that opinion to yourself to save yourself the ridicule of all your friends. But with the anonymity of the internet, any slight flaw can be criticized with out fear. This is how the next generation earned the title the whiny generation. It's not necessarily that they actually whine more, but the internet just allows us to hear it more often.

 

[Synobun]

I predict the proposed train from LV to LA from the Virgin Group will be built inside of 15 years but the high speed route between SF and LA won't be built for another 40. I don't think hyperloop will be widely adopted either.

Sorry for such long range predictions, I tend to have my head in the clouds.

There's a Vegas to LA train approved? And it'll be built within 15 years? Two states, long distance, built in a timely manner?

*places back of hand on Hobb's forehead* Do you have a fever, sweetie? Do you want me to make you some soup and turn on your favourite show? (Which you can watch now, since you're splurging and getting a... TV antenna...)

The new star wars movie will be better than the last one but still be a let down in some way.

This is an easy court shot. This is almost guaranteed. It's impossible to right the ship in the final movie of the trilogy but it's very possible to at least make a passable action movie. It'd take effort to make something more destructive and polarizing than TLJ (even if you're neutral to the whole thing).

 

[hobbsyoyo]

There's a Vegas to LA train approved? And it'll be built within 15 years? Two states, long distance, built in a timely manner?

*places back of hand on Hobb's forehead* Do you have a fever, sweetie? Do you want me to make you some soup and turn on your favourite show? (Which you can watch now, since you're splurging and getting a... TV antenna...)

The advantage that this route has is that the land is mostly empty between the cities and the government (of various flavors) owns most of that land. That's not the case between SF and LA, where right of way was a major obstacle that partially led to it being cancelled. The other big reason was that the speed dictated by the enabling laws was judged to be too high even though it's not insanely fast. It kind of sucks that we stopped being the kind of country to go out there and push for better technology on our own. Now we look at say France or Japan (countries with high speed rail) and say, 'well if they can't even go that fast, it's hopeless' and give up.

 

[civvver]

That's the problem with the internet. Back when the first one came out and there was no all encompassing internet, so unless you really hated it, you kept that opinion to yourself to save yourself the ridicule of all your friends. But with the anonymity of the internet, any slight flaw can be criticized with out fear. This is how the next generation earned the title the whiny generation. It's not necessarily that they actually whine more, but the internet just allows us to hear it more often.

I don't think I will be picking out singular flaws though looking for any reason to hate it or nitpicking. I think the issue is going to be that is the finale to one of the most beloved franchises ever and it can't live up to expectation. My gut feel is I'll enjoy it but be left wanted something more, whether it's some sort of closure or some deeper explanation of lore or a plot point or whatever is it.

That's kind of the issue I had with the end of Game of Thrones. Even though I think that was objectively a bad ending that seemed rush, even if it had been better it would've been hard to live up to my expectations.

 

[rah]

I had no problem with the end of GOT and expect the same experience here. But then, I'm old and my expectations for final endings may be biased.

 

[aimeeandbeatles]

I predict that next year will be 2020.

 

[tjs282]

You AMERICANS are SISSIES, unlike us non-Americans who get concussed and LIKE IT.

You're funny. I like you (concussed or not)

But, yeah, basically this. I mean, is concussion really so serious an occupational risk for (junior) soccer-players that they even need to wear helmets? It's not (supposed to be) a contact sport, after all.

It's not like boxing, or gridiron, or rugby*, where hitting your opponent(s) as hard as you can is pretty much the whole point of the exercise. Or ice hockey, where, never mind high-flying pucks, on-ice fights are (apparently, so I've heard) an integral part of the game. And a soccer ball's large and inflated and moves relatively slowly — unlike a cricket- or a baseball, say — but even in those sports, only the batsmen/keepers are at any real risk of taking one to the head — and they're also the only players on the field who usually wear helmets.

Much as I hate the term 'slippery slope', it seems to apply here. Life cannot be lived 100% risk-free, so learning — and more to the point, teaching your kids — which potential risks are really worth worrying about, would be more sensible than trying to do away with the most infinitesmal risks that one can think of, in the most paranoid of parental imaginariums.

e.g. Driving is far more dangerous than soccer: literally thousands of people die in car accidents annually in the US alone. But I'm willing to bet that the soccer-parent types pushing for soccer-helmets (if such parents exist?) are nonetheless still quite happy -- possibly even insistent on -- driving their sprogs (in their SUVs) to and from the practice-field...

*IMO, voluntarily choosing to play rugby may be a good indicator that someone has taken a couple to the head already — so frankly, if they took a few more, who would even notice? Or in my case, care.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I mean, is concussion really so serious an occupational risk for (junior) soccer-players that they even need to wear helmets?

Yes.

Comparisons to more common but even less safe activities is not really an argument against making sport safer.

 

[rah]

e.g. Driving is far more dangerous than soccer: literally thousands of people die in car accidents annually in the US alone. But I'm willing to bet that the soccer-parent types pushing for soccer-helmets (if such parents exist?) are nonetheless still quite happy -- possibly even insistent on -- driving their sprogs (in their SUVs) to and from the practice-field...

That's how seatbelts got mandated.

I mean, is concussion really so serious an occupational risk for (junior) soccer-players

Never underestimate the paranoia of a typical US soccer mom.

 

[Synobun]

And a soccer ball's large and inflated and moves relatively slowly

In middle school, I broke someone's nose with a soccer ball.

Anyways, I don't think Hobbs is referring to a hockey or football helmet. Probably more what they wear for rugby (as you mentioned earlier). Thus far it seems the prevailing counterargument is that driving a car is more dangerous, which, okay, I guess we can agree to keep Subarus off the field.

Even if a little padding only reduces concussions by 20%, that seems worth a lot more than a spirited shrug of the shoulders (or your asterisk'd comment of "If they get a concussion, they deserve it.").

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Thus far it seems the prevailing counterargument is that driving a car is more dangerous, which, okay, I guess we can agree to keep Subarus off the field.

That's really funny

 

[Narz]

5-10 Years

• I predict "really smart AI" will still be "five years away" five years from now.
  
• Deepfake videos will become more common, but won't make too much difference in the grand scheme of things, mostly teenagers will use them to troll each other.
  
• The natural environment will continue to be raped & tiny actions will continue to not stop the general trend.
  
• If Biden is Dem nominee in 2020 he will lose; if Sanders is, he will win & people will party hard that night.
  
• Marijuana will be legalized in all 50 US states within the next five years.
• Psychedelics will be decriminalized for use in therapy.

Long term (25+ years ahead)

• In the long term either society will collapse or AI will become capable of helping us live in a global civilization w/o destroying ourselves (and we will willingly give over most of our power to it). If one of those two doesn't happen I will be very surprised (if I had to bet I'd put 5 to 1 odds on the former).

 

[Imaus]

I hope the recession comes quick and is over by 2021 and the economic boon moves the Space Industry with the 2.5 generation of New Space. A Lunar Landing by 2024 is ugh and pushes back a Martian landing to around 2038. Hopefully some madlad decides 'screw it' and instead of sulking around, leeching for tickets from the government teat, sends their missions off.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

In the year 2025 (if man is still alive):

• Phones will be green. No-one will know how or why all phones suddenly became green, but everyone will act like this is obviously the most desirable colour for phones to be and mock people for not having green phones.
• At least 7 everyday household or personal items that are currently completely unpowered, will have batteries that require charging every day. This could include items like wallets, spoons, or soap dishes. This will somehow be seen as an improvement and people will wonder how they ever got by without these innovations.
• Rates of concussion will imperceptibly decrease. Injuries to neck muscles will slightly increase.
• The Tories, the Tories, the Tories.
• Greta Thunberg will become the world's first carbon-neutral, zero emission organism.
• Fisher Stevens will be awarded the Nobel Prize for his startling discovery that The Hum is actually the echo of the Big Bang.
• "Dark Strings" will be the hot topic in all the pop science programming of the day. These completely made up 7-dimensional phenomena will have exactly the right properties to finally and definitively explain why there is more matter in the universe than anti-matter. This now means we know more science. No-one knows how or why they exist, or what they're made of, or how they operate, or have any evidence that they exist, but this isn't really worth worrying about.
• "Chicken or beef?" will become "six legs or eight?"
• Humorous Underdog Team of 2019 will be the winners of Sports Game.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

In the year 2025 (if man is still alive):

• Phones will be green. No-one will know how or why all phones suddenly became green, but everyone will act like this is obviously the most desirable colour for phones to be and mock people for not having green phones.
• At least 7 everyday household or personal items that are currently completely unpowered, will have batteries that require charging every day. This could include items like wallets, spoons, or soap dishes. This will somehow be seen as an improvement and people will wonder how they ever got by without these innovations.
• Rates of concussion will imperceptibly decrease. Injuries to neck muscles will slightly increase.
• The Tories, the Tories, the Tories.
• Greta Thunberg will become the world's first carbon-neutral, zero emission organism.
• Fisher Stevens will be awarded the Nobel Prize for his startling discovery that The Hum is actually the echo of the Big Bang.
• "Dark Strings" will be the hot topic in all the pop science programming of the day. These completely made up 7-dimensional phenomena will have exactly the right properties to finally and definitively explain why there is more matter in the universe than anti-matter. This now means we know more science. No-one knows how or why they exist, or what they're made of, or how they operate, or have any evidence that they exist, but this isn't really worth worrying about.
• "Chicken or beef?" will become "six legs or eight?"
• Humorous Underdog Team of 2019 will be the winners of Sports Game.

I wish I could like this twice, it made me smile and giggle.

 

[innonimatu]

2020 guesses? Guesses are easy! To throw about at least i'll play.

US politics: Biden will move aside for a Clinton re-run and Trump will win again.
UK politics: It will renegotiate the "exit deal" with the EU and extract a better one. Brexit will happen without the sky falling and the UK won't split.
German politics: the government will fall, early election.
French politics: more of the same.

Financial crisis probably by end of 2020. Perhaps later.

We'll keep happily burning fossil fuels until the next economic crisis. People will get tired of inconsequential CO2 talk.

China growth epic will finally hit the wall.

The french will start talking about leaving the military structure of NATO and making a "European Military" with Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The germans will refuse because elections and they're not that easy to fool. The belgians will bite because they never got over losing the Congo, and with Trump getting reelected NATO in Europe is becoming irrelevant. Talk about moving its headquaters to Munich or London.

 

[CKS]

I just think the move to put helmets on the players will start there. Parents here are pretty militant about protecting their kids and once you've put a generation of kids in helmets, they'll be fine with it as adults.

I don't think players will have helmets, but I think the ban on heading the ball will continue to rise in age. Here, heading isn't allowed until 7th grade, and a direct free kick is awarded to the other team if someone heads the ball (or sometimes even is hit in the head with the ball, which I think is strange when it is obvious the kid did not know the ball was coming).
If parents were really concerned about protecting their kids, though, we'd see enforcement of the rules about dangerous play. Around here, we don't.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Ah! I didn't realize they were banning heading the ball. I could see a ban on heading but I think helmets are still more likely.

or sometimes even is hit in the head with the ball, which I think is strange when it is obvious the kid did not know the ball was coming).

That's how handballs work too so I don't think it's really that strange. Right? Or can you get away with a handball that wasn't intentional? I thought it was just a blanket rule. That is how it was when I played in youth leagues at least.