Random Thoughts IV: the Abyss Gazes Back

[Timsup2nothin]

oh dear. you never took a statistics class?

Oh dear, yes I have. I have also taken several calculus courses that examined probability, and a third year class that addressed probabilities specifically.

Why are we calling each other "dear"? Is this some pretense of affection you are adopting to try to make your unwarranted condescension more palatable?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

But that's exactly NOT what happens. That WOULD be what happens if doors were opened at random, but they're not - the host only ever opens doors with goats, which is what makes it so our actual chance to win the game is higher than the chance we would intuitively ascribe to it.

That's true, and you should look into it, because right now you're just making yourself look silly because you don't even understand the problem that you're trying to address.

Well presented. So, there is no paradox here. Using the informed choices of the host provides information. Why were you calling this a paradox?

 

[Traitorfish]

Why are we calling each other "dear"? Is this some pretense of affection you are adopting to try to make your unwarranted condescension more palatable?

"Oh dear" is an expression in the English language which is used to express shock, dismay or disappointment.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

"Oh dear" is an expression in the English language which is used to express shock, dismay or disappointment.

No kidding captain.

 

[Ryika]

Well presented. So, there is no paradox here. Using the informed choices of the host provides information. Why were you calling this a paradox?

Because it is a paradox.

A paradox is a statement that, despite apparently sound reasoning from true premises, leads to an apparently-self-contradictory or logically unacceptable conclusion. A paradox involves contradictory-yet-interrelated elements that exist simultaneously and persist over time.

You've proven that perfectly by insisting that the chance is 50%, when it's actually 67%. You were so sure that your intuition is right, that you did not even consider that your solution is wrong.

Just because I can look into the thing and wrap my head around the fact that my assumptions are incorrect does not change that it's a paradox, especially not given that my mind still tells me that it "should not work that way". That's how ALL paradoxes work that appear in reality and are not just purely theoretical.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Does it persist over time though? As soon as you say "the informed choices of the host provides information" the contradiction is gone. While none of my experience included a "Let's look at 'the Monty Hall problem" and my confrontational nature and Cardgames insufferable condescension provided a distraction, the ultimate dispelling of the contradiction isn't complicated. So does the contradiction really 'persist'?

I submit the paradox that calling it a paradox is creating the illusion that there is a contradiction. Since you have "wrapped your head around it" there is no contradiction. Yet when you introduce it you call it a paradox and the first feature of the problem you point out is the non-existent contradiction.

 

[Ryika]

Does it persist over time though? As soon as you say "the informed choices of the host provides information" the contradiction is gone. While none of my experience included a "Let's look at 'the Monty Hall problem" and my confrontational nature and Cardgames insufferable condescension provided a distraction, the ultimate dispelling of the contradiction isn't complicated. So does the contradiction really 'persists'?

I submit the paradox that calling it a paradox is creating the illusion that there is a contradiction.

Well again, that's how all real life paradoxes work. Our world does not allow for actual contradictory statements to be simultaneously true (at least not above the quantum level), so paradoxes always only persist until you put in the time to unravel them and make your brain think in a way that is counter-intuitive to our mind, but required to understand the paradox.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Well again, that's how all real life paradoxes work. Our world does not allow for actual contradictory statements to be simultaneously true (at least not above the quantum level), so paradoxes always only persist until you put in the time to unravel them and make your brain think in a way that is counter-intuitive to our mind, but required to understand the paradox.

Fair enough. At some level all presentations of paradoxes are traps. I'm guessing that the youthful familiarity with the "Monty Hall paradox" is a result of it becoming popular for use in statistics classes, where it is presented as a trap. Like anyone, people thus trapped will always want to use the trap themselves. It is certainly more tuned to current events than the old tortoise and hare paradox.

 

[Traitorfish]

No kidding captain.

(Petition to introduce "captain" as an all-purpose form of address.)

 

[Takhisis]

You are taking a random thought by Ryika seriously, cardgame-san.

@cardgame ryika upvoted that so i suggest you jump ship

 

[cardgame]

A captain goes down with their ship

 

[Synobun]

A captain goes down with their ship

Anime girl solidarity. What will the liberals come up with next?

 

[Takhisis]

Wait, so you're shipping Ryika and… whom else? Me?

 

[Takhisis]

On probability: T-Rex has acute observations, full of pathos.

 

[cardgame]

Anime girl solidarity. What will the liberals come up with next?

You can't stop us

 

[Takhisis]

Dammit, that's about furries. You really are shipping Ryika/Takhi.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

(Petition to introduce "captain" as an all-purpose form of address.)

But it is already a specific form of address, so can't really be made "all purpose." Some people would take the all purpose usage as being the specific short for Captain Obvious form and wonder how they merited that.

 

[Dachs]

You can't stop us

wow I feel like I've seen that guy somewhere before

he looks vaguely familiar

can't quite place him though

 

[Traitorfish]

But it is already a specific form of address, so can't really be made "all purpose."

That's a question of willpower.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

That's a question of willpower.

True. Plus cachet and cooperation. I'm game to help out, captain, if you are really committed.