Recession Watch: March

I've given up on the DOW. I don't think its a good metric, and I think the obsession with it is unhealthy for the market and economy.

I'm much more interested in the unemployment figures, consumer confidence, and business inventories. Those tell a much more illuminating story (and in some ways, a darker story) than the random Dow Dog of the Day..

PS: Netflix is up 25% since I bought it. Some companies are doing fine.
 
Rashiminos said:
I've heard musings about "Greater Depression," but the crowd here will have to see it in official figures before they will accept such a term.
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If unemployment gets beyond 25% and inflation is around 20%, then we can use that term. Until then, its bogus
 
JerichoHill said:
I've given up on the DOW. I don't think its a good metric, and I think the obsession with it is unhealthy for the market and economy.

I'm much more interested in the unemployment figures, consumer confidence, and business inventories. Those tell a much more illuminating story (and in some ways, a darker story) than the random Dow Dog of the Day..

PS: Netflix is up 25% since I bought it. Some companies are doing fine.
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What about GDP?
 
JerichoHill said:
If unemployment gets beyond 25% and inflation is around 20%, then we can use that term. Until then, its bogus
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We shall see...

JerichoHill said:
I'm much more interested in the unemployment figures, consumer confidence, and business inventories. Those tell a much more illuminating story (and in some ways, a darker story) than the random Dow Dog of the Day..
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The DOW coming down from over 13k or so isn't really random.
 
RedRalphWiggum said:
What about GDP?
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GNP is a better metric than GDP given how global things are today, especially with a country like the US.

Of course we'd look at GNP along with the 15 or so other metrics.
 
RedRalphWiggum said:
Is that where they peaked in the 30s?
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About 1/4 unemployed, 1/3 underemployed. Lots of bank runs. Yup.

Right now we're beginning to trend worse than the 1979-1981 recession. So far, this has been very similiar to that recession, minus the inflationary pressure, but it appear unemployment will be worse than that recession.
 
JerichoHill said:
About 1/4 unemployed, 1/3 underemployed. Lots of bank runs. Yup.

Right now we're beginning to trend worse than the 1979-1981 recession. So far, this has been very similiar to that recession, minus the inflationary pressure, but it appear unemployment will be worse than that recession.
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But surely due to the changed nature of employment since the 30s, the exact same standards cant be applied?
 
RedRalphWiggum said:
But surely due to the changed nature of employment since the 30s, the exact same standards cant be applied?
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Not really. If you're not working, you're not working. We don't have Hoover-ville's popping up, and plenty of firms are hiring and expanding, believe it or not. The change in the nature of employment actually benefits today versus harming it. If you take the contract theory, in the 1930s firms hired workers for their working life, or so was the implied contract. Given the depression, laid off workers struggled to find new jobs, in part because of that implicit contract. Now, companies can hire for short periods only, so there is a bit more flexibility
 
JerichoHill said:
Not really. If you're not working, you're not working. We don't have Hoover-ville's popping up, and plenty of firms are hiring and expanding, believe it or not. The change in the nature of employment actually benefits today versus harming it. If you take the contract theory, in the 1930s firms hired workers for their working life, or so was the implied contract. Given the depression, laid off workers struggled to find new jobs, in part because of that implicit contract. Now, companies can hire for short periods only, so there is a bit more flexibility
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but by the same token, if someone was stilol in eomployment in the 30s and had been for some times since the depression started, you could reasonably predict they were safe, whereas now, pretty much no one is, no? also, many people counted as employed today are in short contracts which are NOT going to be renewed, and they know it
 
RedRalphWiggum said:
but by the same token, if someone was stilol in eomployment in the 30s and had been for some times since the depression started, you could reasonably predict they were safe, whereas now, pretty much no one is, no? also, many people counted as employed today are in short contracts which are NOT going to be renewed, and they know it
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I think the point is: Is it better to have some of the people employed all of the time, or all of the people employed some of the time?

A lot of employers, especially manufacturers, are asking this question of their workers. And most workers seem to favour the latter, judging by the number of 4-day weeks, salary deferals, etc.
 
Mise said:
I think the point is: Is it better to have some of the people employed all of the time, or all of the people employed some of the time?

A lot of employers, especially manufacturers, are asking this question of their workers. And most workers seem to favour the latter, judging by the number of 4-day weeks, salary deferals, etc.
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Yeah certaintly, but thats exactly the type of reason why comparing unemployment figures nowadays to 1930s ones may not show the true comparison.
 
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