[RD] Russia invades Ukraine V: The Turning Tide

[FriendlyFire]

I can only say that your definition of "involved" is different from mine.
The only action that isn't NATO is (11).

Its call a SPECIAL "INOLVED" OPERATION /s
Russia sends its Military into the Donbas and Crimea with Heavy Tanks, and yet call thems "TOURIST"

The horse has Long LONG left the barn for you to now close the barn doors.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1617613252988370945

Curious as has Russia gone back in time after every failure. From trying to emulate USA at irak and such at the beginning of the war with somewhat comical results, to cold war massive armoured assault tactics, to WW2 probe mechanized attacks supported by massive artillery, to mere WW1 human waves now. Don't know how the next Russian offensive will be, maybe something like this:

 

[EgonSpengler]

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the United States is "leaning toward" providing Ukraine with M1 Abrams tanks, as part of a deal that would also send Ukraine some Leopard 2s. I don't have access to the full article, so I don't know if they have any details. So far, I think only Reuters is corroborating it.

The Wall Street Journal, 24 January 2023 - "U.S. Leans Toward Providing Abrams Tanks to Ukraine"

WASHINGTON—The Biden administration is leaning toward sending a significant number of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and an announcement of the deliveries could come this week, U.S. officials said.

The announcement would be part of a broader diplomatic understanding with Germany in which Berlin would agree to send a smaller number of its own Leopard 2 tanks and would also approve the delivery of more of the German-made tanks by Poland and other nations.

Reuters, 24 January 2023 - "U.S. may drop opposition to sending Abrams tanks to Ukraine"

WASHINGTON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - The United States, in a reversal, appears to be dropping its opposition to sending M1 Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine and an announcement could come as soon as this week, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Tuesday.

The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they were not aware of a final U.S. decision to send the Abrams to Ukraine, a move that could encourage Germany to follow.

The Pentagon could not be immediately reached for comment.

 

[9gkj548hkm20vk79dj689bnj4]

So it looks as though Russia has greater success with mercenary and/or contractor units. Perhaps they can better motivate their soldiers into achieving more short-term goals with the reward of money up front, rather than years-long stints in the army.
And with the use of prisoners, it sounds like basically a The Dirty Dozen type deal: freedom for doing suicide missions.
I wouldn't have any idea of what the rotation for a Wagner Group soldier is, but I imagine it would be higher than the army. Which might be more suitable as this conflict now approaches the 1-year mark.

 

[Zardnaar]

So it looks as though Russia has greater success with mercenary and/or contractor units. Perhaps they can better motivate their soldiers into achieving more short-term goals with the reward of money up front, rather than years-long stints in the army.
And with the use of prisoners, it sounds like basically a The Dirty Dozen type deal: freedom for doing suicide missions.
I wouldn't have any idea of what the rotation for a Wagner Group soldier is, but I imagine it would be higher than the army. Which might be more suitable as this conflict now approaches the 1-year mark.

Those mercenary units seem to take heavy casualties. 80-98% type heavy.

1000 of them 20 survivors even with exaggerations the pictures not good.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Battle testing the Abrams tanks would be a good thing.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Those mercenary units seem to take heavy casualties. 80-98% type heavy.

1000 of them 20 survivors even with exaggerations the pictures not good.

Wagner group has lowered the cost of keeping Russia's worst prisoners jailed, helping Putin keep his budget in line. Trial by combat over trial in a court. Wagner Group has freed up many cells for the protesters against Putin.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

According to Der Spiegel Germany will finally send its own tanks. Russia better speed up that imaginary offensive or it will be game over soon.

 

[Farm Boy]

The weaponry has advanced more than protections have. Tanks are still tanks, but they're going to get blown up in large numbers at all stages of deployment, Russian or Western, new or old.

 

[REDY]

According to Der Spiegel Germany will finally send its own tanks. Russia better speed up that imaginary offensive or it will be game over soon.

I still wonder what is the motivation of these obstructions. Is there some explanation? I have no Der Spiegel subscription.

 

[Farm Boy]

Wagner group has lowered the cost of keeping Russia's worst prisoners jailed, helping Putin keep his budget in line. Trial by combat over trial in a court. Wagner Group has freed up many cells for the protesters against Putin.

They aren't sending thier best?

 

[Thorgalaeg]

I still wonder what is the motivation of these obstructions. Is there some explanation? I have no Der Spiegel subscription.

Me neither. I am quoting a Spanish newspaper quoting Der Spiegel.

 

[EvaDK]

I only see one interpretation of Germany's policy change; even the German Government now believes that Ukraine can and will win the war and they want to stand on the right side of history.

To put the recently announced military aid packages to Ukraine in perspective; more hardware will be sent to Ukraine during the Spring from NATO member states, than all the hardware sent the last 11 months combined. And that was before the announcement that Ukraine is also getting a batch of the big cats.

 

[red_elk]

Battle testing the Abrams tanks would be a good thing.

You can ask Saudi Arabia.

Spoiler :

 

[Sommerswerd]

Wagner group has lowered the cost of keeping Russia's worst prisoners jailed, helping Putin keep his budget in line. Trial by combat over trial in a court. Wagner Group has freed up many cells for the protesters against Putin.

Reminds me of the Starcraft 2 Marines/Firebats/Marauders.

Russian prisons must be pretty grim for people to choose conscription to the front lines, during winter, over a warm(er) bed in the clink.

 

[Zardnaar]

You can ask Saudi Arabia.

Spoiler :

No one's claiming they're invincible.

I'm sure Russia's well trained infantry are as brave as the Ukrainians or relgious fanatics in the ME.

At least their turrets are on. Don't worry Russia still number 1 at turret tossing Olympics gold medal there

 

[EgonSpengler]

I still wonder what is the motivation of these obstructions. Is there some explanation? I have no Der Spiegel subscription.

Bloomberg, 23 January 2023 - "Germany Still Years Away From Replacing Russian Gas Capacity"

Some Germans are still hoping to sit on the fence, wait for a quick resolution to the war, and resume energy trade with Russia?

 

[red_elk]

Russian prisons must be pretty grim for people to choose conscription to the front lines, during winter, over a warm(er) bed in the clink.

The actual number of people who have chosen so, remains unknown.
I suspect it may be far lower than usually assumed, because both sides have the incentive to exaggerate it.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

You can ask Saudi Arabia.

Spoiler :

You can run over a mine with a battleship and sink. But if someday an Abrams and a T-90 meet in Ukrainia wouldn't like to be the guy in the T-90, and you either, say the truth.

 

[red_elk]

You can run over a mine with a battleship and sink. But if someday an Abrams and a T-90 meet in Ukrainia wouldn't like to be the guy in the T-90, and you either, say the truth.

I'd prefer to be in the one which has more experienced crew and better air/artillery support. The tanks themselves have comparable characteristics.