[RD] Russia invades Ukraine V: The Turning Tide

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May be American people would treat missile sent to the center of their capitol by the country they are at war with, as a sign of peaceful intentions. Russians will most certainly not.
Notice how the spy balloon sent by China flew from Montana to SC started a war!
 

Exclusive: Iranian drones appear to contain modified explosives designed for maximum damage to Ukrainian infrastructure, report finds​


 
I don't see why you think the Russian public would matter anymore here? As far as we know Russia is firmly policed and under control. People can be quite unhappy, and nothing will happen. Mostly by now they are afraid more than anything. The Russian public is being deterred here, and so far successfully. If that deterrence breaks down, then drastic things can happen quickly, but not just for a bit and not before. Then things end in something moving towards a revolutionary society. But the domestic situation in Russia has already been stacked in such a way as to avoid that.
Sorry, remember I was speaking about after a nuke happens. The world become Hell after that happens, most so for the Russian citizenry. Right now, every Russian citizen has a hell of a dilemma, quietly get policed and their lives get worse OR object to the war and (win or lose) their lives get much worse. But if a nuke happens, that whole calculus changes. At that point (imo), it's only a rabid and brutal excising of their governing forces that has even a hope of making the future better than the alternative. The entire world knows that the West will under-invest in peace after Putin falls - but it also might not under-invest, given how's it actually has worked previously.

A rapid rebellion will at least delay any counter-push and extended punishment by outside forces. Sure, it will still happen, but not like the counterfactual. The faster the excision happens, the more brutally, the easier it will be to pivot from purging their current government to rebuilding.
 
Sorry, remember I was speaking about after a nuke happens. The world become Hell after that happens, most so for the Russian citizenry. Right now, every Russian citizen has a hell of a dilemma, quietly get policed and their lives get worse OR object to the war and (win or lose) their lives get much worse. But if a nuke happens, that whole calculus changes. At that point (imo), it's only a rabid and brutal excising of their governing forces that has even a hope of making the future better than the alternative. The entire world knows that the West will under-invest in peace after Putin falls - but it also might not under-invest, given how's it actually has worked previously.

A rapid rebellion will at least delay any counter-push and extended punishment by outside forces. Sure, it will still happen, but not like the counterfactual. The faster the excision happens, the more brutally, the easier it will be to pivot from purging their current government to rebuilding.
Russian public is not involved here. They want a number of things, and they absolutely don't want a number of other things, but it is out of their hands what happens, and they act accordingly.
 
USA and Ukraine can go full Pennywise on Russia for that matter, I'd have no problem with that.
It does seem like it'd be more thematic if the PRC had used a red balloon.

Edit: Either way. It seems they're supplying old stuff first, and modifying new stuff to limit escalation best they can. It sounds familiar in the bad way. Like my fathers generation that didn't come back from the campaigns in the east. Those were largely AKs, from what I understand. Bleh.
 
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Russian public is not involved here. They want a number of things, and they absolutely don't want a number of other things, but it is out of their hands what happens, and they act accordingly.

Then I guess the alternative is that we're locked into a horrid future if Russia uses a nuke, mostly for them.
 
Let's draw some bones on a paper airplane and fly it over with a rubber band! Draw a picture of poobear on it first.
 
Moderator Action: Back to news please.
 

Russia is on the offensive in the Luhansk region, according to Ukrainian regional leader​


Russia is on the offensive in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region, though without “much success” so far, according to the area's Ukrainian leader. “We can conclude that a certain escalation has already begun. And we can say de facto that this is part of the full-scale offensive that Russia has been planning,” Serhiy Hayday, head of Luhansk region military administration, said in a television interview posted to his Telegram channel.

The Russian push is coming west from the area of the Russian-occupied city of Kreminna in northeast Ukraine. Ukrainian forces had for some time been trying to disrupt a key road between Kreminna and Svatove, to the north, which has represented the front line for months.
“There our soldiers constantly repulsed a large number of attacks by the occupation troops,” Hayday said. “They have not had much success. There is no breakthrough. The situation is difficult, but is still controlled by our defense forces.”

The uptick in Russian attacks has also been noted by the Ukrainian military’s General Staff in its regular updates. Pro-Kremlin Russian military bloggers have also written cautiously about a push toward Ukrainian-held territory.
“We managed to locally recapture small settlements, which were occupied by the enemy in the course of action at the end of the fall,” blogger Evgeny Poddubny wrote on his Telegram channel. “Overall, the initiative is on our side, although the situation is difficult.”

CNN's Vasco Cotovio and Yulia Kesaieva contributed reporting to this post.

Analysis: Potential reasons for the Wagner group’s transition away from recruiting convicts​

Analysis by CNN's Tim Lister

Private military contractor Wagner will have to look for new fighters beyond Russia’s prison system, a fertile recruiting ground for the past nine months, according to its boss Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The Russian oligarch did not give any reason for the decision, but here's a few plausible explanations for the change of tack:
  • The pool of recruits may have dwindled: After signing up between 40,000 and 50,000 prisoners from jails across Russia, the number of volunteers from prison may have shrunk so far that the campaign is no longer delivering.
  • The Ministry of Defense may have intervened: It is also possible that the Wagner way of war – despite the bombast of Prigozhin – no longer fits in with the Defense Ministry’s plans. Wagner fighters who had been recruited from Russian prisons interviewed by CNN said their units never had any interaction with Russian regular forces, even if there was artillery support for some Wagner assaults.
  • The convict campaign may have depleted Wagner’s finances: Prigozhin’s companies had to buy weapons and other equipment for the prison recruits, train them at camps in Russia and in occupied territory in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region, transport them to combat areas and feed them.

Prigozhin’s declared halt to the prison recruitment campaign does not mean Wagner is out of business. Far from it. It has built an experienced and hardened cadre of fighters over the past decade, many of them veterans of the Chechen wars who have also seen action in Africa and Syria. It still has sizable contingents in the Central African Republic and Mali, where Prigozhin combines training and security missions with lucrative concessions for raw materials. But it may signal an evolution in Wagner’s role in the Ukraine conflict in the coming months, as it becomes less reliant on the poorly trained “cannon fodder” who have been thrown into assaults for places like Soledar.

You can read Lister's full analysis here.
 
@Darkator
:eek: Not only is he speaking very very fast, he is speaking in what might be Polish!

Moderator Action: Please add a short summary of what he is talking about for those of us for whom it is gibberish! Thanks.
 
Depending on the damage, I'd be ok with responding by using small yield tactical nuke against Ukrainian military target. As a member of "Russian people" who received your message.

Russia attacking Ukraine cities and slaughtering civilians daily is also OK with our Russian friend
What else is new ?
 
I just can in no way can conceive that 'serious damage' could in any way warrant such a response.
You seem to have missed the Russian mindset that people have been talking about from day 1, and the display by Russian posters of this mindset since the beginning of the war.
Russia can do whatever it wants because it's always justified, so bombing into oblivion an entire city is completely okay. At worst, it's sad, but justified because something.
Anything done to Russia is a heinous crime motivated by heinous intent, regardless of what Russia did itself, so a symbolic missile that does nothing justifies terrible retaliation.

Remember you're just speaking with someone who finds Russia and its massive killing and war crimes justified because of a tiny fraction of accidental killing of civilians due to a war started by Russia itself to begin with.
 
You seem to have missed the Russian mindset that people have been talking about from day 1, and the display by Russian posters of this mindset since the beginning of the war.
Russia can do whatever it wants because it's always justified, so bombing into oblivion an entire city is completely okay. At worst, it's sad, but justified because something.
Anything done to Russia is a heinous crime motivated by heinous intent, regardless of what Russia did itself, so a symbolic missile that does nothing justifies terrible retaliation.

Remember you're just speaking with someone who finds Russia and its massive killing and war crimes justified because of a tiny fraction of accidental killing of civilians due to a war started by Russia itself to begin with.

You forget it's basically btrollung at this point.

Elsewhere Russians are aware things aren't going great.

Anxious and tense apparently.
 
Not only is he speaking very very fast, he is speaking in what might be Polish!
short summary of the film: the Russians hit the bachmut like their heads against the wall, stopping the large Ukrainian forces in the fight. But despite the difficult situation in Bakhmut. the situation for ukraine is good. Ukrainians get equipment from the west and for now it will be good for Ukraine.
 
What the Ukrainians need to do, is hope that they have just enough forces in the region to withstand the Russian offensive. If holding Bakhmut becomes too costly to justify, withdraw and retreat to a deeper line of defense instead.

It's imperative that the Ukrainians keep building up their newly formed armored brigades for their own counter-offensive in the Spring. Get all the ducks (and leopards) lined up for one decisive strategic push into the South. The dynamics of the war will completely change, if Ukraine puts itself in a position where it can actually threaten to reclaim Crimea and award Putin with the greatest and most humiliating defeat imaginable.
 
Yes. Russia tried to emulate the United States and its military doctrins by conducting a Russian version of a combined arms assault in February/March last year. Didn't work out; they found out the hard way that modern combined arms warfare actually requires heavy logistics, good intelligence, vehicles that are actually maintained and a well trained and resourceful officer corps which Russia has never cultivated, because independent thinking among citizens and officers alike, is considered a threat to the regime. China is exactly the same in that regard.

Hence Russia fights the only way it knows to fight; throw bodies at the problem and shower it with artillery shells. When those bodies are dead, just throw more bodies. And then even more. Just like a re-enactment of WW1 and WW2 battlegrounds. Russian lives have no value other than as the fuel that powers Putin's megalomania and paranoia.
 
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