Russia is on the offensive in the Luhansk region, according to Ukrainian regional leader
Russia is on the offensive in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region, though without “much success” so far, according to the area's Ukrainian leader. “We can conclude that a certain escalation has already begun. And we can say de facto that this is part of the full-scale offensive that Russia has been planning,” Serhiy Hayday, head of Luhansk region military administration, said in a television interview
posted to his Telegram channel.
The Russian push is coming west from the area of the Russian-occupied city of Kreminna in northeast Ukraine. Ukrainian forces had for some time been trying to disrupt a key road between Kreminna and Svatove, to the north, which has represented the front line for months.
“There our soldiers constantly repulsed a large number of attacks by the occupation troops,” Hayday said. “They have not had much success. There is no breakthrough. The situation is difficult, but is still controlled by our defense forces.”
The uptick in Russian attacks has also been noted by the Ukrainian military’s General Staff in its regular updates. Pro-Kremlin Russian military bloggers have also written cautiously about a push toward Ukrainian-held territory.
“We managed to locally recapture small settlements, which were occupied by the enemy in the course of action at the end of the fall,” blogger Evgeny Poddubny wrote on
his Telegram channel. “Overall, the initiative is on our side, although the situation is difficult.”
CNN's Vasco Cotovio and Yulia Kesaieva contributed reporting to this post.
Analysis: Potential reasons for the Wagner group’s transition away from recruiting convicts
Analysis by CNN's Tim Lister
Private military contractor Wagner
will have to look for new fighters beyond Russia’s prison system, a fertile recruiting ground for the past nine months, according to its boss Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The Russian oligarch did not give any reason for the decision, but here's a few plausible explanations for the change of tack:
- The pool of recruits may have dwindled: After signing up between 40,000 and 50,000 prisoners from jails across Russia, the number of volunteers from prison may have shrunk so far that the campaign is no longer delivering.
- The Ministry of Defense may have intervened: It is also possible that the Wagner way of war – despite the bombast of Prigozhin – no longer fits in with the Defense Ministry’s plans. Wagner fighters who had been recruited from Russian prisons interviewed by CNN said their units never had any interaction with Russian regular forces, even if there was artillery support for some Wagner assaults.
- The convict campaign may have depleted Wagner’s finances: Prigozhin’s companies had to buy weapons and other equipment for the prison recruits, train them at camps in Russia and in occupied territory in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region, transport them to combat areas and feed them.
Prigozhin’s declared halt to the prison recruitment campaign does not mean Wagner is out of business. Far from it. It has built an experienced and hardened cadre of fighters over the past decade, many of them veterans of the Chechen wars who have also seen action in Africa and Syria. It still has sizable contingents in the Central African Republic and Mali, where Prigozhin combines training and security missions with lucrative concessions for raw materials. But it may signal an evolution in Wagner’s role in the Ukraine conflict in the coming months, as it becomes less reliant on the poorly trained “cannon fodder” who have been thrown into assaults for places like Soledar.
You can read Lister's full analysis
here.