Russia Invades Ukraine

[Akka]

Putin must have a pretty narrow idea of "interfering" when it isn't exactly a secret that arms supplies, including javelinels, are streaming into Ukraine via Poland, and it's all but certain that US and NATO AWACs systems are tracking and reporting Russian aircraft to a Ukranian system that can stay dark until firing.

We and the world are absolutely "interfering." If Ukrainians want their freedom badly enough to keep fighting, they might just have it.

I think he meant any military action (basically shooting at Russians). And honestly, even that I think is pretty much mostly posturing.

 

[JPetroski]

nobody is praising Russia for not nuking Ukraine . It is an observation that America would freak out if it was facing the opposition and support Russia is facing .

We wouldn't nuke anyone, and in any event, our military isn't a paper bear. We have the same issues with insurgents as everyone, but we tend to win the conventional battles.

 

[JPetroski]

I think he meant any military action (basically shooting at Russians). And honestly, even that I think is pretty much mostly posturing.

I honestly think a no fly zone would not be challenged seriously by Russia at this point. The world is pretty much calling their bluff. Heck, we have Senators publicly boasting of all the defense systems we are sending in.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Unconfirmed so far by Turkey
from the Guardian:
Turkey will stop Russian warships from passing through the Black Sea, according to Ukrainian prime minister Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...fighting-kyiv-zelenskiy-assault-putin-capital

I'd assume that the Russians have anticipated such a possibility and prepared contingent plans.

And I have difficulty in seeing how that would benefit Ukraine.

 

[r16]

america tends to win conventional engagements because those engagements are fought against weak powers without money to buy friends .

 

[Edmund Ironside]

nobody is praising Russia for not nuking Ukraine .

You are!

ı will say Russia is doing quite well in holding a cool head ... America would have already gone nuclear .

This is praise!! But feel free to keep digging yourself into a hole!

 

[João III]

america tends to win conventional engagements because those engagements are fought against weak powers without money to buy friends .

As opposed to notoriously strong and wealthy Ukraine?

 

[red_elk]

Why damage the part of Ukraine, you expect to own very shortly?

There is no point in advancing through positions being fortified for the last 8 years.

 

[JPetroski]

america tends to win conventional engagements because those engagements are fought against weak powers without money to buy friends .

The weak powers nearly always using Russian equipment doesn't hurt, either.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Ukraine bought Hunter Biden?

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Closing straits would be the same as blockage. We aren't there... yet.

 

[r16]

you might well discover that ı do have a very basic understanding of war .

and calling me Russian lover or whatever will not stop me stating Ukraine must be defeated . ı do not live by sound bytes and by quite high probability will be around to see how America wins every war . Do not cry out for nuking enemies of America if you care for internet reputations or something .

and you won't be there as well .

 

[Akka]

The ex-commander of the Estonian forces is posting some pretty interesting tweets.
Seems a bit too good to be true, but hey, one can hope.

(to sum up, he claims the Russians expected a walk in the park and are completely unprepared to hold the fighting for long, the Kremlin is panicking and Ukraine can definitely pull it through if they keep resisting)

 

[Joij21]

Frankly I don't see why people speak of Russia using nukes against the Ukraine. Afaik Putin only mentioned nukes in regards to "other powers" (aka the US, mostly) interfering. Which isn't a first in Russia-US relations (both sides had alluded to "being forced" to use nukes, if the other attacked - at different eras, of course).
No nuclear power (at least of the serious ones) will use nukes against a non-nuclear power. It only happened once, with vastly inferior atomic weapons, against Japan, in the end of a massive world war.
By the way, those atomic bombs didn't play a role in Japan capitulating. Russia declared war on them, and that played a massive role (they guessed that if they didn't immediately sign peace with the US, part of Japan would become soviet).

Putin needs nukes being deployed against a non nuclear power so he can have a live above ground demonstration that he's serious. Right now he believes the West doesn't take him seriously enough when he says he has nukes (because too many, especially Americans believe his arsenal is too old and improperly maintained to be a threat).

What better way to show your nukes still work than a live demonstration on actual, real life, flesh and blood bodies?

 

[João III]

(to sum up, he claims the Russians expected a walk in the park and are completely unprepared to hold the fighting for long, the Kremlin is panicking and Ukraine can definitely pull it through if they keep resisting)

This would be in line with the reports of Russia asking for reinforcements from Kazakhstan (if true)

 

[Akka]

Putin needs nukes being deployed against a non nuclear power so he can have a live above ground demonstration that he's serious. Right now he believes the West doesn't take him seriously enough when he says he has nukes (because too many, especially Americans believe his arsenal is too old and improperly maintained to be a threat).

Nonsense. Even if only 10 % of the Russian nukes worked, that would be enough to be taken seriously. Heck, even 1 % would be enough. Even a single bomb going off would be enough.
Everyone take nukes VERY seriously, and that's IMO the reason why NATO hasn't actually done something more drastic.

But precisely because people take nukes seriously, they know that anyone not completely insane would keep them as a last resort. It's well understood that using nuke = receiving nuke. Nobody will dare to put a foot in Russia, but everybody understand that threatening of nuking anyone in a non-desperate situation is a bluff.

What better way to show your nukes still work than a live demonstration on actual, real life, flesh and blood bodies?

What better way to lose every bit of international support and risking a revolt from your own ranks (not to add risking to get nuked yourself) than to use nuke when it's not yet warranted ?
China is hegemonic and complete a-holes without any care of human rights, but even them would drop Putin like a lead ball if he ever used nuke offensively.

 

[r16]

and the idiots America loves are on the offensive . New Turkey drones have 3300 Russians and they can go and invade lands Mustafa Kemal lost . This , CFC people , is some indicator you gotta be interested in .

 

[João III]

Hungary now supports cutting Russia off SWIFT.

Hungary was the last EU country who opposed the measure.

 

[Joij21]

Nonsense. Even if only 10 % of the Russian nukes worked, that would be enough to be taken seriously. Heck, even 1 % would be enough. Even a single bomb going off would be enough.
Everyone take nukes VERY seriously, and that's IMO the reason why NATO hasn't actually done something more drastic.

But precisely because people take nukes seriously, they know that anyone not completely insane would keep them as a last resort. It's well understood that using nuke = receiving nuke. Nobody will dare to put a foot in Russia, but everybody understand that threatening of nuking anyone in a non-desperate situation is a bluff.

What better way to lose every bit of international support and risking a revolt from your own ranks (not to add risking to get nuked yourself) than to use nuke when it's not yet warranted ?
China is hegemonic and complete a-holes without any care of human rights, but even them would drop Putin like a lead ball if he ever used nuke offensively.

If these reports of Putin's forces taking heavy casualties are true, he will eventually need a way to double down. Shock and awe, death and destruction, like a merciless angel of death.

He also can't back down because he needs to portray himself as mister alpha high testosterone sigma male man.

 

[H4run]

The ex-commander of the Estonian forces is posting some pretty interesting tweets.
Seems a bit too good to be true, but hey, one can hope.

The aim of this report is to increase the morale of the militia and anticipate them from running and bring order and hope to the fighters and civilians alike. Is Russia really unable to hold of arm conflicts and his budget are numbers only by days? I doubt that.