SCOTUS Nomination II: I Like Beer

[sophie]

I like the Obama one. Obama's mother gave birth to him in Kenya. She thought to herself, "I bet this baby will want to be President of the United States some day. I better go to Hawaii and pretend I had him there." Then that very baby does grow up to want to be President of the United States!

At least my understanding is that the mother didn't falsify the records. Obama/the State/the Democratic machine falsified the records after he ran for/was elected president. Again: the State is powerful enough to falsify records, but so incompetent as to seemingly not bother spending any time whatsoever covering their tracks or taking care of basic due diligence.

I also love that the media/scientists are part of the cabal and therefore not to be trusted, and yet any time a paper/story is advanced by a scientist/the media implying validation of the conspiracy theorist's worldview, that story is wholly legitimated by dint of its association with a university/newsprint.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I like the Obama one. Obama's mother gave birth to him in Kenya. She thought to herself, "I bet this baby will want to be President of the United States some day. I better go to Hawaii and pretend I had him there." Then that very baby does grow up to want to be President of the United States!

And hatch a plot so structurally sound that it could pass muster well enough to get him into the Senate, only to have it disintegrate two years later.

 

[Gori the Grey]

At least my understanding is that the mother didn't falsify the records.

But she at the very least arranged for the local paper to run a birth announcement.

 

[Berzerker]

Here's where I am skeptical. As far as I know, he proferred the calendar. Do we really think he'd have forwarded it if he'd recorded the day he and Judge allegedly molested Ford on it?

I thought about that too...why would he provide any evidence linking him to her accusation? I dont know, but it sure looks like he did. Maybe since the calendar only mentions his drinking buddies he didn't remember her or the incident.

Yes. He spent a great deal of time deliberately mischaracterizing the calendar itself. He gambled that if he told enough convincing lies that the half of his audience was speaking to would believe his story and evidence and give him a pass.

That's exactly what ended up happening.

If he hadn't spent so much time lying about the calendar and mischaracterizing his life at that point in time I would agree with you. Moreover, there is the distinct possibility that he simply doesn't remember assaulting Ford and thus would still put the calendar out there. Even then, he knew about the party but deliberately avoided mentioning it by way of claiming that weekdays were no time for partying and therefore the party was not a party. Why would he spend so much effort on being disingenuous if he didn't know the calendar poked huge holes in his own story? He gambled that he could tell the big lie and spin it to make his fellow travelers believe him and he won.

Yup, I was struck by how he reacted when the link between her accusation and his calendar was pointed out. If it didn't happen he wouldn't have tried to create an 'alibi' with that nonsense about only partying on weekends which were spent out of town yada yada.

Not near skeptical enough. Consider how well-crafted Ford's story is:

She goes to a party, except it's not a party, just a pre-party, the one before the heavy drinking. She can't know that, this bit is here to establish how truly debauched these people are.

Ford testified. “It was just a gathering that I assumed was going to lead to a party later on that those boys would attend, because they tended to have parties later at night than I was allowed to stay out. So it was kind of a pre-gathering.”

Why cant she know? I've been to many parties that were preceded by pre-party drinking sessions with my buddies.

There is also reason to think the timing of the July 1, 1982 party could be inconsistent with Ford’s description of events. Kavanaugh testified that his calendar indicates that prior to the gathering at Tim Gaudette’s he had been doing a football workout, which was “usually 6:00 to 8:00 or so, kind of—until near dark. And then it looks like we went over to Timmy’s.”

https://www.weeklystandard.com/john-mccormack/was-blasey-ford-at-a-july-1-1982-party-with-kavanaugh

The calendar says nothing about an early evening football workout, it refers to a workout at Tobin's house - probably a weightlifting session. I played HS football, we didn't practice until 8 pm so this workout was informal and not subject to any strict timeline.

"I had one beer". LOL of course, but quite evocative. By saying these words, the jaded party girl in front of you is transformed to Chrissy, the vulnerable schoolgirl. Then she goes upstairs. What kind of stairs? Narrow stairs. Why narrow? Because, fellow moviegoer, something sinister is up there. In psych class, this is called priming. And sure enough, it's a teen horror movie - elitist ogres are lurking in the shadows; it's a conspiracy to gang-rape!

Maybe she dreamed it all after watching a movie

Now comes the the brilliancy: she saddles Brett with a corroborating witness. As luck would have it, Mark Judge is the only person in the available social universe with negative credibility, his presence actually harms Brett's story.

Why would she include witnesses if it was a fabrication? How would she include people who just happened to be on his calendar?

Lastly, she is not quite ravished, saved by a one-piece bathing suit. Why this item? Because it's not what you would wear if you were looking for heavy boy/girl action. No, Chrissy is a wholesome athletic-type girl who is totally not wearing her new thong from Victoria's Secret.

She was a swimmer

No detail can possibly be controverted.

Even naming people who deny being at the 'party'?

Bret has a few beers, feels frisky, tackles Chrissy unto the bed, some groping and tickling on his part, some squealing and giggling on hers, Mark jumps in the fun and they all tumble onto the floor laughing. Take that story to right lawyer, and with just minor tweaking, voila, attempted rape.

She wouldn't have suffered any trauma if she was in on 'the fun'. So why would she lie about it now or back in 2012?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I thought about that too...why would he provide any evidence linking him to her accusation? I dont know, but it sure looks like he did. Maybe since the calendar only mentions his drinking buddies he didn't remember her or the incident.

He's a judge. Unless the calendar outright said "tried to rape a girl with my pal judge" its value as evidence was going to be determined by the context he provided...at least in the eyes of the majority Republican committee and the majority Republican Senate. In that regard the existence of any sort of prop was going to enhance his testimony, not refute it.

 

[HoloDoc]

For me for a long time it was the Truthers, but recently I've discovered just what it is the Flat Earthers actually think. Now it's definitely that. Truthers and Moon-landing theorists are patently absurd due to the reason I pointed out above: the conspiracies simultaneously presuppose a state so sophisticated, and all-encompassing that they can coordinate hundreds of co-conspirators at all levels of the bureaucratic apparatus, as well as multiple apparently independent media organizations, AND keep them all sworn to secrecy, and yet are so hilariously incompetent that any idiot with zero background in physics can spend 10 minutes looking at WTC schematics and unravel the whole thing. However, at least the the conspirators stand to gain some tangible advantage in these fantasies: the US faked the moon landing to garner prestige and embarrass the USSR; the US orchestrated the WTC bombings to justify an invasion of Iraq, etc. The Flat Earth conspiracy makes zero sense at any level. A cabal of academics and state bureaucracies have been lying about the shape of the Earth for centuries for...no apparent reason. Reminds me of the Mitchell and Webb sketch: "Well it's nice to have secrets, isn't it?...It's just the sort of thing governments do, I suppose"

For years I thought the Flat Earthers were just elaborate pranksters. Now I know better; they actually believe this crap. But I don't think they're dangerous, except insofar as they can be drawn into other conspiracies. People like the Pizzagate shooter though... That is dangerous, and at least as stupid. Then there is Q Anon, a theory which was probably started as a prank by left-wing trolls to mock the stupidity of right-wing conspiracy theorists, only for said conspiracy whack jobs to actually believe it and become a genuine threat to shoot people at rallies.

 

[HoloDoc]

He's a judge. Unless the calendar outright said "tried to rape a girl with my pal judge" its value as evidence was going to be determined by the context he provided...at least in the eyes of the majority Republican committee and the majority Republican Senate. In that regard the existence of any sort of prop was going to enhance his testimony, not refute it.

He could have gone into that much detail, and they still would have confirmed him. I wasn't kidding when I posted that comment earlier about the Rape-publicans being willing to turn a blind eye to a sex video involving children if it gave them more power.

How long until the GOP renames itself the New Founding Fathers?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

He could have gone into that much detail, and they still would have confirmed him. I wasn't kidding when I posted that comment earlier about the Rape-publicans being willing to turn a blind eye to a sex video involving children if it gave them more power.

Well, yeah. Can't argue with this.

 

[El_Machinae]

Sounds like an upgrade from getting shot for your shoes. All things in perspective, I suppose.

Tempting enough to consider. It's worth significantly more than my life insurance, at any rate. A house and a college education, my sister is good with kids... Yeah, that's worth pondering.

Oh, if I told you that you could have (specifically) $600k in exchange for 40% of the country hating you, and their crazy subset wishing you dead, you might be tempted. Or not. You might have a different price-tag if you were a professor, but ymmv.

But IF I am trying to calculate an incentive for coming forward, I can only really balance the profit motive for her coming forward with the social risk it also creates

 

[Disgustipated]

For years I thought the Flat Earthers were just elaborate pranksters. Now I know better; they actually believe this crap.

I'm certain they are just trolls. Dedicated trolls, mind you, but trolls nonetheless. Flat Earthers are easily disproven which is why I know they are just trolling other people. I make a point to disprove them, it only takes one sentence.

 

[Bootstoots]

Not near skeptical enough. Consider how well-crafted Ford's story is:

She goes to a party, except it's not a party, just a pre-party, the one before the heavy drinking. She can't know that, this bit is here to establish how truly debauched these people are.
"I had one beer". LOL of course, but quite evocative. By saying these words, the jaded party girl in front of you is transformed to Chrissy, the vulnerable schoolgirl.
Then she goes upstairs. What kind of stairs? Narrow stairs. Why narrow? Because, fellow moviegoer, something sinister is up there. In psych class, this is called priming.
And sure enough, it's a teen horror movie - elitist ogres are lurking in the shadows; it's a conspiracy to gang-rape!
Now comes the the brilliancy: she saddles Brett with a corroborating witness. As luck would have it, Mark Judge is the only person in the available social universe with negative credibility, his presence actually harms Brett's story. It's a day ending with Y, therefore Mark is blackout drunk, and by extension, so is anyone within beer range of him. The boys can't remember the incident because it's medically impossible to do so. Their hippocampi are crippled by blackoutedness.
Lastly, she is not quite ravished, saved by a one-piece bathing suit. Why this item? Because it's not what you would wear if you were looking for heavy boy/girl action. No, Chrissy is a wholesome athletic-type girl who is totally not wearing her new thong from Victoria's Secret.

It's a really good story, quite professionally suggestive. Too good to be true. No detail can possibly be controverted. The story is does maximum damage to Brett at minimum risk to Chrissy. Excellent lawyering here.
For the cynically minded: https://www.google.com/search?q=for...69i60j69i59.5885j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
$600K+ and counting.

I think your motive-speculation skills need work. I mean, you don't need to invoke GoFundMe: it's just not very convincing that someone would do all this in order to set up a GoFundMe. That doesn't add up given that she already has a comfortable upper-middle-class life that has been upended by all the publicity and the inevitable death and rape threats.

Maybe she's trying to become a Democratic cause celebre and turn that into political power - a high-profile run for office, say, or major lobbying power (either for hire or at the front of a political pressure group). Or she's just an extremely committed Democratic partisan who thinks Kavanaugh is such a fundamental threat to Democrats' interests that she is willing to throw a one-woman Hail Mary pass to get him rejected - perhaps not leaving enough time for the Republicans to confirm someone else before the midterms - or, failing that, to boost Democrats' poll numbers for the midterms after the Republicans confirm him anyway. Maybe she has both of these complementary motives at the same time, and she's ambitious enough to be willing to weather the threats to her life so she can get the political power she's always secretly craved.

I don't believe that at all, but perhaps you might.

 

[Berzerker]

putting her family at risk to make Trump nominate someone else doesn't pass the common sense test

 

[Disgustipated]

weather the threats to her life

oh come on. Just about every major person in the news has had threats to their life. Not one has been killed. Most of them say it as a way to get sympathy. It's not like I believe she's in any serious danger. Especially now the situation has passed.

 

[sophie]

I'm certain they are just trolls. Dedicated trolls, mind you, but trolls nonetheless. Flat Earthers are easily disproven which is why I know they are just trolling other people. I make a point to disprove them, it only takes one sentence.

Sounds like you aren't engaging with the actual Flat Earthers then. They have a retort to "but we have pictures from space".

oh come on. Just about every major person in the news has had threats to their life. Not one has been killed. Most of them say it as a way to get sympathy. It's not like I believe she's in any serious danger. Especially now the situation has passed.

Gabby Giffords.

 

[Disgustipated]

Sounds like you aren't engaging with the actual Flat Earthers then. They have a retort to "but we have pictures from space".

I just tell them you can't see Polaris (North Star) from Australia. To me, that proves the earth is round (or a globe). And of course they may say Australia doesn't exist, but you can just as easily say Chile. Regardless of what they say, it's always going to be nonsense and not worth arguing over. One sentence proves it.

 

[Bootstoots]

putting her family at risk to make Trump nominate someone else doesn't pass the common sense test

The main motives would be for her own political power and/or fame, and to help the Democrats in November. Knocking down the Kavanaugh nomination would be icing on the cake, but given the amount of time it takes to get through a SC nomination, they may not have been able to get a replacement confirmed before Election Day.

oh come on. Just about every major person in the news has had threats to their life. Not one has been killed. Most of them say it as a way to get sympathy. It's not like I believe she's in any serious danger. Especially now the situation has passed.

Sure, but she's probably had more than average for someone in the news and was not a public figure before this. It's not that people aren't willing to take the risk, but there has to be enough of an incentive to do it that they would be motivated to come forward.

 

[sophie]

I just tell them you can't see Polaris (North Star) from Australia. To me, that proves the earth is round (or a globe). And of course they may say Australia doesn't exist, but you can just as easily say Southern Chile. Regardless of what they say, it's always going to be nonsense and not worth arguing over. One sentence proves it.

If it's not about convincing them, what's the point in engaging with them then?

 

[Disgustipated]

they may not have been able to get a replacement confirmed before Election Day.

I was wondering about this. Could they have not gotten through a nomination during the lame duck period before the new Senators take office? I'm not exactly sure when that is, but I was assuming it's January like the President. I know not a lot gets done during that time, but it seems like they could have slammed someone else through.

 

[Berzerker]

yes...especially in the unlikely event the GOP lost the Senate come mid January, but the odds are the GOP picks up seats

 

[Naskra]

they may not have been able to get a replacement confirmed before Election Day.

This is what I think the whole game was about. Ford is just a pawn here.