[BTS] SGOTM 24 nostalgia

sossos · Apr 14, 2017

After further calculation, I think religious victory may not be the optimal one at T117.

1. If we skip Astronomy, we need to research Gunpowder and Chemistry before Scientific Method. That is 2880 beakers before 1.2 adjustment, 1320 beakers higher than Compass and Optics. Deducted by saving from Liberalism, the gap is still 936 beakers.
2. We also need to research theology, which is 780 beakers.

Because of 1 and 2, Scientific Method may be pushed out by 7 turns. This cancels the effect of 5 turns pull-in. Not to mention that we can save the GE for the 2nd golden age.

sossos · Apr 14, 2017

PPP(Pre-Play-Plan) for T117~T125

Diplomacy:

We are gonna put all of EP to India because we may need to change his civic. For Bismark, he will be destroyed

We are gonna trade fish for 2 gold from Stalin.

Great People Plan

No Change

Techs:

No Change

Cities:

Capitol: Horse Archer is the best if we are short of soldiers.

3 fish city: build wealth as the temple won’t be finished in the next 15 turns.

Barbarian city: Build wealth and change the 2nd citizen to merchant.

Stone city: Build wealth and turn the citizen into merchant

Persian capitol: Build swordsman

War:

The great General will be sent to Capitol.

Scout the iron city, cease fire with Persia and make peace with Germany.

Attack Ecbatana and Susa, the two coastal cities after our units are ready

Ask for metal casting and make peace with Persia.

Attack Russia for spice and elephant.

Workers:

1. More farm needed at Pasargadae. One worker will be sent there.

2. Road those forests with the most growing capability first, then the river tiles

3. No need to mine now.

sossos · Apr 15, 2017

I played till T121 today and will play till T125 tomorrow.

Spoiler Log :

nanoprince · Apr 18, 2017

Thanks a lot to @sossos!
I will play 1~2T today to see the map of Asoka and then spend 1 week to make a detailed plan for the way to victory.

sossos · Apr 26, 2017

The grand strategy

The estimate of victory date

First I sum up all beakers needed to get Medicine, ~16,000 after 1.2 adjustment. Then I calculated our yield as of now. It's 306 per turn (1f=2h=2c=2yield) Therefore, if we can have a payback period of 25 in the next 40 turns, we can hit the target with an average of 400 yield/turn. The victory date is set at ~T170 based on compounding effect.

The estimate of critical date

On the other hand, we also need to check the critical point,

1. The date of scientific method+nationalism

Beaker wise, we need ~4,112 beakers and we have 506 gold on hand.

Potentially we can also have incoming gains from 3 sources:
(1) 8 turns of golden age, ~900
(2) free religion (not counted in yet as we may want organised religion)
(3) Overseas gold ~14/turn

However if we switch to slavery, there will be a loss of at least 400 as we can't hire 20 specialists any more for at least 5 turns.

Therefore it will take 11 turns based on the yield of 306 at T130.

2. The date of scientific method.

Beaker wise, we only need ~1772 beaker. We can easily get it in 5 turns.

In terms of great people point, here's the table

Turn GPP Food bank
T130 414 11
T131 474 10
T132 534 9
T133 594 8
T134 654 7
T135 714 7
T136 806 5
T137 898 3
T138 1008 0 (-1 pop)

The table above is based on the fact that we can connect the cattle at T134, and the assumption that we are gonna start golden age from T135

3, The risk of great merchant with 10% odds at GLH city.

If the 10th great people is a great merchant, it'll be used to bulb nationalism. This is a 500 beakers loss, so we need to keep some buffer.
(1) We need to target the nationalism at T143, though in the best case it can be finished at T141
(2) We need to build wealth in those cities when investment cannot be paid off by T143.

Golden age

Based on the analysis above, the second golden age will be started from T135 and the third golden age will be started from ~T153.

In the second golden age, we are gonna switch to slavery and free religion at T138. We are gonna whip 20 workers and some galleons/cataputs. We will exit with nationhood at T143.

The third golden age will be started ~T153 after we take the MoM from Asoka. We are gonna whip some buildings with organized religion.

sossos · Apr 27, 2017

Q & A

Q: Do we need nationalism as it's a distraction from the medicine beeline?
A: The investment is 2690 and we can have a golden age of 8 turns~12 turns. This is a value of 1800~2700 around T157. Not to mention the benefit from no-anarchy revolution, which is about 2 turns if we have more than 24 cities. This investment can be well paid off.

Q: Which civic is better? Bureaucracy or Nationhood?
A: The benefit from Bureaucracy is 18/turn without considering the bonus buildings. With nationhood, each maceman draft can benefit us by ~40h. Even if we just draft 14 maceman from T143 to T153, we can have a gain of 56/turn. The nationalism is better. After T153, we can choose to switch back after we have enough soldiers.

Q: What's our next target?
A: I think it is Asoka. With galleon, it is as far as Russia from our capitol. The MoM is a gain of 900. For Persia, we can gift him a tech and open border. For Russia/Germany, we can open border after we switch to free religion.

Q: Do we need to root out Persia to get rid of those homesick red faces?
A: Without galley, we cannot realize another blitz war against Persia. The benefit from Susa and Tarsus is not high enough. Even the Russian spice city is more lucrative than them. Basically we need to focus on those rich cities at the beginning of wars as it can benefit us more.

Q: Is it still possible for a religious victory?
A: If we hadn't declared war against Germany, it would be highly probable because we can ask Germany to vote for us when we get the AP from Gandhi. However, the only possible religious victory now requires us to have a friendly Ghandi. He is now theology monopoly so we have to research theology ourselves. Yet, as our scientific method is so late now, it might not be a problem.

sossos · Apr 27, 2017

Comparison (Religious victory vs Dom/Conq victory)

Because the scientific method is pushed out to T138 and we have more beakers than GPP by T138, I think religious victory may win back our favor at this moment.

1. Researching theology won't delay scientific method much now. We only need ~2422 beakers, which can be achieved in 8~9 turns. On the same time, the GPP can allow the 10th great person out at T139

Turn GPP Food bank
T130 414 11
T131 474 10
T132 534 9
T133 594 8
T134 654 7
T135 714 7
T136 783 5
T137 852 3
T138 921 1
T139 1008 0

2. We lose a golden age with a benefit ~1524(912 from golden age and 612 from no-anachy) around T140, but we can be compensated by the great merchant. The net loss is just ~424.

3. The investment of just 1074 can win back a lot of hammers from domination or conquest efforts and commerce from maintenance. As we know, at the pace of conquering/settling 2 cities a turn, we will have few gains in the last 15 turns. A lot of hammers on soldiers is a waste.

4. This does not mean that we don't need nationalism, we still need it since it can be easily paid off by the golden age. The theology research will just delay the T153 golden age by 1 turn if we don't switch civics. We can also choose switching civic to nationhood+slavery+organized religion for two turns. That will push out the golden age to T156, but it's not a problem. We can have more pops to gain more benefits from a late golden age.

5. With religious victory, all we need is just to please Ganhdi. We can attack any other civilization at any time for the juicy cities only. This can give us the best return on investment.

6. I count forest at last. We have 39 at our land and 48 at Persia/Russia's land. That should already be enough. We just need to eliminate 3 AIs: Asoka, Persia and Russia. Of course it's still nice to rush any good cities for faster medicine if needed.

7. In regards to the workers, maybe we don't need to have 30 workers if we can set victory date 1~5 turns later than the date when we get medicine. In the extreme cases, we can just have 10 more workers and save about 900 hammers and 450 unit cost. That turn out to be about a beaker value of ~3000 in the last several turns, which is still a little bit less than 5 turns. If we choose to build our units mainly by drafting, it seems still optimal to have 30 workers immediately after we get scientific method. However, the difference is not big.

8. Espionage points are relatively trivial, but it may also require some investment. I think we need to count the EP as a useful gain when we calculate the ROI of different buildings.

sossos · Apr 27, 2017

PPP(Pre-Play-Plan) for T130~T150

Diplomacy:

In my opinion, the best cities in the world as of now are: MoM, holy shrines and happiness.
We will continue to put all of EP to Gandhi because he will be the voter.
Without galley, it’s hard to use the swordsman to attack Susa in 2 turns. so we may need to gift a tech to Persia to open border. Pull back the galley and attack his capitol after the scientific method is in pocket.

Civic:

Switch to Nationhood+slavery+organized religion after we get scientific method and nationalism. The target date is still ~T143 or T144. We need to research theology, but the great merchant can win the cash back.

Great People Plan

Just take care of the GLH city, for others, easy pizzy.

Techs:

Machinery->bulb nationalism->theology->scientific method->nationalism->engineering->gunpowder

Cities:

Need one more work boat for the whale.
May not need barrack since we won't build too many units in each city and it can only help the first draft.
A settler is needed to connect the marble because the ROI of the Great Library(at capitol) and the Hero Epic(at Persepolis) is high.
We may not need a monastery if we can eliminate Asoka, Persia and Russia. However, we need to remember training 3 missionaries when we are in organized religion.
Build wealth in most cities if the building can’t be payed off before we get scientific method and nationalism.

Workers:
connect the cattle & resources
road the forest at home land
build workshops at Persian land.

Units:
The great merchant will be sent to Persia for money if we can open border with him. Otherwise bulb nationalism.
The soldiers will be prepared to take Persia's Susa, Tarsus or Russia's spice city if there's any opportunity. There's no big gain, but no diplomatic impact either. Why not to stir up the idle armies?

Zhary · May 11, 2017

Just a friendly reminder that there is 20 days left. Good luck

sossos · May 24, 2017

@Zhary

Thank you for reminding.

@nanoprince @flager @obeliskgolem

It's apparent that TA/DB have finished their games, so it doesn't matter whether we choose to win at T175 or T182. As discussed, we are gonna take the approach with lower risks and less micros.

PPP(Pre-Play-Plan) for T164~T182

Forests:

We have 45 at our original land, 39 FP finished and 21 WT left for the balance 6.
We have 14 in other territory. 12 FP finished but 1 might be pillaged by Russia.

Basically that's enough even if we don't grab any new land.

Technology:

~7291 beakers needed with 558 yield/turn as of now. This means we can get medicine no later than T178.
4~7 turns need to be planned for gifting techs, so it should be considered ~T171

Religion:

We have 96 votes and need to spread religion to other AIs for least 32 votes. The two missionaries should go Asoka for 25 votes.
Only 2 more missionaries are needed, one for Gandhi and one for Bismark.

Espionage:

If Gandhi is friendly to us, we just need 6 spies for Toku, Stalin and Bismark; if Gandhi is not friendly, we need 2 more spies and 1 more settler.
Spies need to be ready before T173 if possible.
As Toku is the worst enemy of Gandhi, we cannot get Gandhi friendly.

War:
Compared with Russian cities, barbarian cities can provide more FP. However, they are too far from our main force as of now.
On the other hand, we are short of galleons. We need galleons to eliminate Darius and grab one city close to Germany. Therefore, we need to build one more galleon at Ecbatana.
The most important target of war is a city close to Germany. The other cities are not important.

Workers:
It is not going well with the war so far. From T148 to T164, we only get 1 more forest in the conquered cities. The workers are redundant.
More worker turns may be put on irrigating since we are gonna have biology soon.
Another options is to send a new settler around for more jungles.

sossos · May 28, 2017

Spoiler :

T178 Although Russia has castle and Chichen Itza, it is still destroyed in 14 turns at the pace of 1 city every 2 turns.
T179 Medicine is researched
T180 47 FP in our initial land and 25 in the out land. We switch to Environmentalism this turn. The save is uploaded for verification.
T181 Asoka and Toku adopt Environmentalism. The save is uploaded for verification.
T182 Gandhi and Bismark adopt Environmentalism. Darius is destroyed. The save is uploaded for verification.
T184 Religious victory. The save is uploaded for verification.

I'm not sure why the final save can't be seen on the progress page properly. I'll leave a message to report.

Zhary · Jun 1, 2017

Congratulation to a victory. Well played :thumbsup:

Noble Zarkon · Jun 1, 2017

Congratulations on a great result.

sossos said:
I'm not sure why the final save can't be seen on the progress page properly. I'll leave a message to report.

The final save is always hidden until all teams have finished.

Noble Zarkon · Dec 20, 2017

SGOTM 25 is announced, sign up here.

[BTS] SGOTM 24 nostalgia

sossos

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nanoprince

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Zhary

Skalman

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Noble Zarkon

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