So much for the Shiite support...
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Little Raven
On Walkabout
Shia unrest has nothing to do with our inability to deliver peace. The Shia don't want peace any more than the Sunnis do...which is to say that both want peace, but only on their terms.
The Shia have been relatively calm not because they like us or agree with our version of Iraq, but because we've been doing their dirty work for them. Our Apaches hunt and kill Sunni insurgents, and our APCs absorb IEDs that would otherwise be targetting Shia. From the Shia perspective, this is quite ideal...we concentrate on the Sunni militants, leaving Shia militia free to concentrate on the Sunni civilians.
However, with this latest security move in Baghdad, this simple relationship is beginning to break down. The reality is that the Sunni have lost the battle for Baghdad...the Sunni middle class has fled in droves, and those unable to afford to leave have been butchered by Sadr's boys. They just don't have the numbers any more. Which means that the Shia militias have supplanted Sunni insurgents as the biggest security threat, and General Petraeus has begun to respond accordingly, openly moving against the Badr Brigade. This is not something the Shia are prepared to tolerate...which means that even as Round 1 of the Iraq insurgency (Sunni) begins to wane, we can look forward to an even more exciting Round 2, in which the Americans and their British allies take on Sadr and the Shia. It will be both easier and harder...on the one hand, the Shia in Iraq don't quite have the organizational history of the Sunni, which will play on our advantage. On the other hand, there are a LOT more of them, and Iran will no doubt ensure they are well supplied. (unless we placate that regime) It will be fun, no doubt.
And stay tuned for the bonus lighting round....US vs. the Kurds.
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