Spaceballs: The Mafia Game!

Zack said:
Those would be really weird kill choices if they were based on public information.
Click to expand...

I agree, which is what makes this so freaking weird.
 
To show how unbelievably unlikely it is that these choice of nightkills were pure coincidence, let's use basic probability. We're assuming the following: a) potential kill choices are independent of each other, b) potential kill victims all have an equal chance of being picked, and c) the kill choices are random - which they seem to be, if they were indeed based on publicly available information, without any private or "insider" information.

Let's look at a couple different scenarios:

Four mafia in the game (so three after ATPG's lynch): (1/15) * (1/15) * (1/12) = 0.037% chance of this outcome

One serial killer*, four mafia (three after ATPG's lynch): (1/15) * (1/17) * (1/12) = 0.033% chance of this outcome

*Let's say the serial killer kills spaceman, and the mafia kill the other two.

So, the probability of Scenario A OR Scenario B happening = .037% + .033% = 0.07%. In other words, if this game was played one thousand times, this specific string of nightkills would occur organically seven times. Out of one THOUSAND.

EDIT: I did the math wrong, it's actually 0.7 times out of every 1000 times. So yeah. (.07% = .0007)

So either you're banking on the fact that NinjaCow64 is mafia, or you're banking on 0.07%.
 
Hey, a 0.07% has to happen in at least one Mafia game amirite?
 
Zack said:
If one thousand mafia games were played, it would not be expected to occur even once.
Click to expand...

No, but if ten thousand were played, it would happen seven times.
 
Spoiler :
Just noting that I edited post #283. It would have been confusing to make a new post about the things I edited (math).


I can't directly quote, but there are some interesting tidbits from PMs that I'm reviewing now (all from NinjaCow).

4/20/13 - Ninja saw me doing nothing the night before, and believes that his night action was redirected to me. He wants to know if it was me (it wasn't). He wants to know how I know that spaceman is not vanilla - note the choice of words, here; Ninja is not interested in how I know that spaceman is town, but rather interested in how I know that spaceman is vanilla. This is important, because Ninja already assumes that spaceman is town, but is really interested in whether he is a power role. The wording of his request for answers to his questions is also worded in a way that gives off a "I really, really want to know these answers, but don't want to ruffle any feathers or upset you."

4/20/13 - After I told Ninja that I was masons with spaceman, he says that he will retract his vote, as he has no reason to disbelieve my claim. Another interesting choice of words that I cannot quote (damn!). Why mention trust at all? And why specify that he doesn't not trust me, rather than simply saying he trusts me?

4/23/13 - Unfortunately I cannot quote the exact words, but Ninja said something implying his frustration that ATPG was lynched (think something along the lines of "The lynch result was a total farce... but I guess it's okay because we got a scum, right?").

4/24/13 - Ninja says mechaerik targeted me last night (he did - I confirmed later that mechaerik was the roleblocker). He puts a lot of emphasis on his desire to know if I received any night results PM because of this (I didn't).

4/28/13 - Ninja says that he tracked Terran Emperor and saw him do nothing. Apparently, he confessed to being Role X after interrogation, which I found odd. When Terran came within an inch of being lynched, he refused to give up any information about himself other than that he was not Spaceballs, publicly or privately. Terran also quite explicitly detailed his desire to eradicate the Spaceballs in public. Why would he suddenly confess his entire role to Ninja, a known Spaceball, when there was no pressure on him, and after he was supposedly scanned by his interrogator doing nothing? "I saw you do nothing WHAT IS YOUR ROLE?" doesn't seem very intimidating to me. Makes no sense.
 
Unvote

After talking privately with Terran Emperor, I seriously doubt he is scum, and I'm beginning to second-guess myself about Ninja. I know who killed sirtommygunn (not Ninja), and to Ninja's credit he has been transparent and honest about everything, even when I've been breathing down his neck and leading a lynch against him. I'll try and keep him on a leash, so to speak, but I don't think he's scum.

I don't know what to believe anymore. I'm going to organize my thoughts and knowledge into a spreadsheet before anything else.
 
Oh, and I'm pretty sure this is the setup:

MAFIA -- one kill per night

SPLIT TOWN -- "Spaceballs" and "Good"
 
Vote: JoanK for the same reasons as yesterday.
 
vote: classical hero

I believe ninja is innocent, and we don't really have a better lead right now.
 
unvote: Abstain for now

sorry i got my peoples mixed up, i believe classical is innocent.
 
I'm so confused right now, two people lobby hard against two others, then suddenly drop their accusations because of PMs. Either the mafia is extra devious, or extra passive this game.
 
@Zack: I was about to post a massive response to your post about my PMs, but now you've seen the light. :)

So, um, yeah. I'm really not sure what to believe either. Classical isn't really a solid lynch, but I mean I don't really have any better suspects...

Although I would appreciate it if people started voting for Classical anyway as at this point Zack's realisation isn't going to mean jack if I get lynched due to Abstentions.
 
Zack said:
Oh, and I'm pretty sure this is the setup:

MAFIA -- one kill per night

SPLIT TOWN -- "Spaceballs" and "Good"
Click to expand...

Considering that to be the case, wouldn't it be more likely that both are serial killers instead?
 
Optical said:
Vote: JoanK for the same reasons as yesterday.
Click to expand...
And what reason would that be again? I looked back at yesterday and it isn’t clear there either…

classical_hero said:
vote:JoanK
Click to expand...

Care to give a reason?

I don’t get these votes on JoanK. He is one of the only ones that we have on record voting to lynch a Mafioso. Granted it could have been a bus, but that early in the game with that few votes tells me otherwise.

Anyone have a valid reason for lynching him?
 
You were half an hour faster than me. I second the question (understandably). Is there a tally, BTW?
 
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