Steam - hypothetical bankruptcy discussion - split from FAQ

IMO in case of buyout Google is most likely buyer. EA cant afford it (Valve is most likely worth much more than EA - EA has market cap. "only" 5.33 Billion USD). MS looks to be more interested in consoles. Activision/Blizzard is also likely able to put together enough money, but if Gabe offered Valve for sale I think that Google would get it.

Reason why I dont think buyout is likely to happen anytime soon (next 5 years) is that Gabe already have tons of money and no reason to sell.

I agree that it would be great to know financial results of Valve (Steam). I wrote article about digital distribution services few months ago and it was wery difficult to make reasonable estimate of marketshare (several Steams competitors are also private companies).

:nono: you forgot Apple,
They had $8.24 billion IN PROFIT last year
 
Hey look, I changed valve to Government, and your post makes exactly the same amount of sense -- None. In the case that Steam goes Belly up, I think that it won't matter, because a much superior competitor will have to exist in order for Steam/Valve to die out. Same thing with the Government; in which case, there isn't a whole lot we can do, and it makes no sense worrying about either scenario.



Even if Steam gave you a DVD with an old fashioned serial key that didn't use the internet at all, the discs degrade after 10 years. You guys ask for the impossible, and whine when we tell you that it's impossible...
I don't think you understood what I was talking about - I never asked for a different DRM, I responded to a specifc claim attributed to the Valve co-founder that they would do a specific thing (remove DRM) in case of the company going belly up - and that specific thing is something that is not going to happen pretty much no matter what circumstances lead to the company going under. I have trouble with people trying to use marketing fairy tales as arguments for others to not worry. I am not terribly happy about Steam being used, but there could have been worse DRM schemes - I am very unhappy with some of the arguments stated officially as to how it works, why people's worries are unfounded or why ot is being used. Again: I don't believe that its going to go belly up any timie soon, but I just won't accept people using fairy tales like the one Gabe offered a while ago :mischief:

Also of course: it is much much much much more likely for a private company to go belly up than the US government to cease to exist. So there your argument fails as well, quite apart from the fact that you tried to attack mine based on a misunderstanding of my argument.
 
the discs degrade after 10 years
What on Earth do you do to your discs to make them degrade after 10 years? (As an aside, put them in an xbox 360 and I could understand them degrading after 1 hr! :))

From what little attempts at research I've read about, so long as you don't store your discs in a place where they are exposed to light (especially UV light), high temperatures (e.g. 30C+) or high humidity (storing in the bathroom :lol:), the life time shouldn't be as low as 10 years. I would like to see some solid research on this but it doesn't appear all that easy to find.

I've certainly got some 10yr+ discs that still work the same way they always have.
 
NIST to the rescue

National Institute of Standards and Technology said:
Among the manufacturers that have done testing, there is consensus that, under recommended storage conditions, CD-R, DVD-R, and DVD+R discs should have a life expectancy of 100 to 200 years or more; CD-RW, DVD-RW, DVD+RW, and DVD-RAM discs should have a life expectancy of 25 years or more. Little information
is available for CD-ROM and DVD-ROM discs (including audio and video), resulting in an increased level of uncertainty for their life expectancy. Expectations vary from 20 to 100 years for these discs.
Few, if any, life expectancy reports for these discs have been published
by independent laboratories. An accelerated aging study at NIST estimated the life expectancy of one type of DVD-R for authoring
disc to be 30 years if stored at 25°C (77°F) and 50% relative humidity.
 
Thanks everybody, for the replies. This is now what I perceive. There are those who dislike the idea of steam enough to suggest all reactions up to boycott and all reasons up to this idea of losing your copy of Civ because of Steams business misfortunes. This conversation of the possible results of business misfortunes is interesting, but is, to my perception mostly academic. At first, it had seemed possibly a reason to panic. I would hate losing access to Civ 5 for any reason. I already went through losing a BTS disc. But now I think I can go find other things to worry about. I think informed and semi-informed speculation, such as this seems to have turned into, is interesting and informative. Have fun. I'm just going to stay away from the overall "start panicking now!" feel the conversation has given me.
 
We'd have to check the legal fine print to know if it was even possible for them to charge you a fee to use a game license you have already purchased.
Their terms of service can be changed at any time without prior notice. So, why should there be any - legal - restriction for them to change to a fee-based service?

As far as I can see it, no law will require them to stay "for free" (which actually they are not, but at the moment they finance their 'service' via their share of the sales prices).
Mechanically this would be hard too, unless they hardcoded a failure system into offline mode or fee cancellation.
Otherwise you go offline and play your game for free.
If you have to reinstall on a new computer, you pay the subscription fee for a month, install your game, register, go offline and then cancel your subscription.
As soon as any planning for one-time/monthly/quarterly/annual fees would arise, the client will be updated in such way that it will require to be online at the respective intervals. Where is the technical problem?

Edit: and seeing the move from a game as product towards a game as service, at least it´s part of my interpretation of Gabe Newells words: "as an industry we are going throu a transition, from entertainment as a product to entertainment as a service" (Gabe Newell announcement that protal 2 [together with steam] will come for the ps3 at the E3 2010), i wouldn´t say, paying a monthly fee in the future for an entertainment service isn´t that highly unlikely
I will take this statement as given, since I didn't check it.

Nevertheless, it is the very nature of a (continuous) service that you will have to pay continuously for it.
For a product, you will typically just pay once.

Taken this into consideration, it does not seem to be unlikely that Steam may change their policies in the not too distant future.
And because at least the ones who love Steam for their online functionalities cannot cancel their subscriptions without losing their games (not even taking into consideration that there would be many self-acclaimed 'defenders' of such a move), I don't see that much of a risk for them to do so.

They just have to wait until their market share gets strong enough.

I don't think you have to worry about Valve (or Stardock/Paradox) going bankrupt. I know all three of the big players are in great shape financially now.
These are interesting news. May I ask about your sources?
 
This conversation of the possible results of business misfortunes is interesting, but is, to my perception mostly academic. At first, it had seemed possibly a reason to panic.

Sadly, I think many of the discussions have can have that kind of effect on people that don't have a clear picture of what Steam is themselves. It can easily seem that people are either hating Steam or loving it (though that is mostly a product of the nature of forum discussions).

No matter which side you "believe", chances are you're getting a skewed picture of what the situation really is. I believe such exaggerated views on Steam we see around here can easily scare people into believing it is worse (or better) than it really is. I sure hope not many people have been influenced by this in such a way that they're avoiding the game even though they might not have if they really knew (objectively) what Steam was. Same thing for the other way around, of course, but I'm not very worried about people assuming Steam is better than it is (if they do, they probably wouldn't have worried in the first place, and still would have gotten teh game).
 
I see it as basically a continual conflict between pessimistic and optimistic personalities. Of course, there are people occupying the middle ground too.
 
I've certainly got some 10yr+ discs that still work the same way they always have.

And you prove me correct with that statement there. SOME. 10 years is an average. Some discs will last longer, some shorter. A 25 year lifespan is in the best conditions, IE, perfect temperature, no younger relatives/siblings throw it around, you never move, you never touch it, it stays in the case and not your CD drive (CD Drive is much warmer than the surrounding air, degrading it faster).

10 years is realistic. The OP's premise is a WORST case scenario, so you should consider only WORST case scenarios when dealing with alternatives. Not best case, or your comparing apples to oranges.
 
Personally I'd back it up on to an archival disc, my HDD and some regular discs for playing
 
Hard Drives have a shorter livespan than DVD and CD media. ;) 10 Years on 1 hard drive is lucky.
 
Hard Drives have a shorter livespan than DVD and CD media. ;) 10 Years on 1 hard drive is lucky.

I know, but I'll simply clone the hard drive when I switch to a new computer
 
Valve? Go bankrupt?

That's unlikely. Even if they were or weren't, there would be illegal copies of the game floating around on the internet. I don't think there are any games that can't be hacked and cracked by hackers.
 
And you prove me correct with that statement there. SOME. 10 years is an average. Some discs will last longer, some shorter. A 25 year lifespan is in the best conditions, IE, perfect temperature, no younger relatives/siblings throw it around, you never move, you never touch it, it stays in the case and not your CD drive (CD Drive is much warmer than the surrounding air, degrading it faster).

10 years is realistic. The OP's premise is a WORST case scenario, so you should consider only WORST case scenarios when dealing with alternatives. Not best case, or your comparing apples to oranges.

So you're saying the mean lifetime for discs is 10 years? When I said I have some discs that are working and more than 10years old, I didn't meant to imply I have discs the same age that don't work. The only discs I've ever had that don't work are because they've been scratched. If you wanted to include that in your estimate of the lifetime, that would be reasonable IMO.

As for a CD spending time in the drive, I would think the stresses and strains it goes under each time it spins up and down on computer start/shutdown etc. would be more important than the air temperature in it, but I do agree the air temp in there can a bit higher than outside the case.

Anyway, your comment was that discs degrade. It's usually fair to interpret that as not including damage from physical abuse (kids throwing them around etc.), touching its surface and so on, but rather from normal wear and tear (including using in drive, storing in its case etc.).

Really I just don't believe the claim that discs degrade after 10 years (though it is ambiguous if you put it that way). I have music CDs from even longer than 10 years ago that still work fine (and none that have had a noticeable reduction in quality), though you could argue that degradation of a music CD is difficult to measure if it's only in its initial stages.

Keep in mind the OP's post was not originally an OP. It became an OP when it was split from another thread.
 
Most (if not all) of my games that are more than 10 years old are now unplayable due to windows compatibility issues...
 
Most (if not all) of my games that are more than 10 years old are now unplayable due to windows compatibility issues...

Good point. Windows Compatability will likely render Civ 5 useless long before Steam ever goes out of business
 
Most (if not all) of my games that are more than 10 years old are now unplayable due to windows compatibility issues...

DOSBox - and you can play alot of your old DOS games. And i still play and enjoy MoO2 from time to time - and it was released 1996. Also if you look here, there is still a quite active civ3 community, and civ3 was released 2001.

Perhaps the next Windows OS will produce/introduce new trouble, but also perhapsl some creative guys will create a WinXPBox / Win95Box.
 
Yep any games from about around about 1990 and later I've been able to get working, some of them requiring a bit of dosbox action. :)
 
DOSBox - and you can play alot of your old DOS games. And i still play and enjoy MoO2 from time to time - and it was released 1996. Also if you look here, there is still a quite active civ3 community, and civ3 was released 2001.

Perhaps the next Windows OS will produce/introduce new trouble, but also perhapsl some creative guys will create a WinXPBox / Win95Box.

Are we certain of this? If we take a look at console emulation, despite what must be a huge pressure to create emulators, the PS2/Gamecube/Xbox generation emulation is partial, spotty and buggy. These are difficult and complex machines to emulate despite being nearly ten years old themselves. In ten years time will winXP emulation be as easy as dos emulation now?
 
The first "perhaps" was more likely (that the next windows will produce trouble), the second "perhaps" more unsure (that there ever will be something like a WinXPBox). So nope, no certainy ;) . But honestly - i had never thought that there will be a DOSBox and it was a really nice surprise for me to be able to play MoM again, so who knows.

(but more or less it was only a wild future speculation (perhaps bundled with a wish) from my side - the main point was that atm 10 - and even 20 - years old games can be played)

and considering console emulation- weren´t there also some legal reasons :confused:
 
Back
Top Bottom