The future of Tesla

[Oerdin]

Larry Ellison (from Oracle) is a pretty good choice to replace Musk on the Tesla Board of Directors. He will be pretty much the same as Musk.

 

[innonimatu]

He's slightly less of a prima donna. But tesla's problem is that it doesn't really produce anything unique that its competitors with far more industrial and management experience cannot. And the time when Tesla could get new capital at nearly zero cost is gone starting this year. Those are two big disadvantages. So my guess is that even replacing the half-crazy, erratic little dictator of the company won't save them.

 

[Goodfella]

He's slightly less of a prima donna. But Tesla's problem is that it doesn't really produce anything unique that its competitors with far more industrial and management experience cannot. And the time when Tesla could get new capital at nearly zero cost is gone starting this year. Those are two big disadvantages. So my guess is that even replacing the half-crazy, erratic little dictator of the company won't save them.

Tesla's software and battery technologies are actually quite unique and non-trivial for competitors to replicate. Almost all competitors have historically outsourced software and which was basically limited to console displays. Bringing software in-house for full integration with the vehicle is difficult even for Mercedes and BMW. For instance, the ability to update vehicle performance via wifi patches is not a capability of any other (afaik) car company. Things like Tesla's massive charging network and the millions of hours of autopilot data add to its advantage.

 

[Live trash can]

The world needs technophiles to push technological progress. And then it needs responsible people to reign them back when they go to far.

I am a bit concerned with all the power corporations have gained. They seem able to develop new techs and products much as they are able to and as they seem fit. And the military also. I saw an interview with Musk where he talks about merging of computer and brain. He sounds to me like a crazy scientist, but in a serious and alarming way!

Youtube: Elon Musk's incredible interview on Axios (full interview)

He seemed also to have some spasms. Perhaps he has been experiencing on himself.

You know the dwarfs dug, and they dug deep, too deep!
They unwittingly released a balrog.

Just imagine what the Boring Company will release if they continue digging!

 

[innonimatu]

The ability of the car manufacturer to remotely control and change my car? No thanks. I know people are paying for that, but I think they're the same type of people who trust Facebook's owner...

And it's not just because of the potential for deliberate abuse, it's because of knowing how software is developed and released today!

 

[Dekker]

The ability of the car manufacturer to remotely control and change my car? No thanks. I know people are paying for that, but I think they're the same type of people who trust Facebook's owner...

And it's not just because of the potential for deliberate abuse, it's because of knowing how software is developed and released today!

In 10 years we won't have a choice.

 

[Hrothbern]

In 10 years we won't have a choice.

Compare with ABS, the smart braking system.
ABS is since decades on the market, went through a long technical learning curve already, and still not optimal compared with experienced and at that moment attentive drivers, depending on circumstances.

And in a traffic congestion going hard on your brakes.... where do you look ? at the car before you, or at the car behind you ? I hope for you at both ! And when that car behind you is not smart or driven well ... how will it end up ?
=> Such total smart cars only function well when all cars are similar smart.
Which means that the benefit potential is only really utilised when non-smart cars are forbidden. Which means a 20 year delay after the total smart cars are economical mainstream.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Compare with ABS, the smart braking system.
ABS is since decades on the market, went through a long technical learning curve already, and still not optimal compared with experienced and at that moment attentive drivers, depending on circumstances.

And in a traffic jam going on your brakes.... where do you look ? at the car before you, or the car behind you ? I hope for you both ! And when that car behind you is not smart or driven well ... how will it end up ?
=> Such total smart cars only function well when all cars are similar smart.
Which means that the benefit potential is only really utilised when non-smart cars are forbidden. Which means a 20 year delay after the total smart cars are economical mainstream.

It will begin with zones within cities where only smart cars are allowed. Those will then be expanded until all the old cars are relegated to the countryside.

 

[Hrothbern]

It will begin with zones within cities where only smart cars are allowed. Those will then be expanded until all the old cars are relegated to the countryside.

Yes, city zones and I guess as well max speeds.
Which will be good for the learning curve of the AI as well, because accidents that will inevitably happen from flaws, will happen at lower speeds, with less personal risks.

Whereby noted that outside the city the drivers of smart cars must be obliged to switch off their AI, and drive attentive again. Not perfect that psychological gap, but unavoidable.

 

[Oerdin]

He's slightly less of a prima donna. But tesla's problem is that it doesn't really produce anything unique that its competitors with far more industrial and management experience cannot. And the time when Tesla could get new capital at nearly zero cost is gone starting this year. Those are two big disadvantages. So my guess is that even replacing the half-crazy, erratic little dictator of the company won't save them.

You are wrong on that one. They have the best battery tech in the business (and everyone else is still using Tesla's older battery versions which they made public domain) plus it is by far the cheapest producer of batteries in the world right now as they truly are in a league of their own wrt economies of scale.

VW and Mercedes are introducing electric SUVs next year but they were not designed from the ground up to be electric. Tesla's are. Tesla has about a two year backlog of customers who ha e put their money down and are waiting to buy one where as no competitor has such an excited customer base. Hell, Tesla is the largest and it hasn't even started selling model 3s outside of North America yet.

That is not to say others can't eat into Tesla's lead over time but it is foolish to pretend they don't have some very real advantages.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

still not optimal compared with experienced and at that moment attentive drivers, depending on circumstances.

I will throw out a number I made up but I would guess upwards of 90% of drivers do not know how to avoid locked brakes should they encounter the need. ABS is a great thing for the vast majority of drivers.

 

[Goodfella]

You are wrong on that one. They have the best battery tech in the business (and everyone else is still using Tesla's older battery versions which they made public domain) plus it is by far the cheapest producer of batteries in the world right now as they truly are in a league of their own wrt economies of scale.

VW and Mercedes are introducing electric SUVs next year but they were not designed from the ground up to be electric. Tesla's are. Tesla has about a two year backlog of customers who ha e put their money down and are waiting to buy one where as no competitor has such an excited customer base. Hell, Tesla is the largest and it hasn't even started selling model 3s outside of North America yet.

That is not to say others can't eat into Tesla's lead over time but it is foolish to pretend they don't have some very real advantages.

The EV market is also growing and thus there’s a chance that competitors could roll out their Tesla slayers without even hurting Tesla’s sales.

People who think it’s a niche market haven’t driven a model 3 or model s yet. As soon as you do, you’ll understand both the enthusiasm for the car and how the age of total combustion vehicle dominance is ending.

 

[Hrothbern]

I will throw out a number I made up but I would guess upwards of 90% of drivers do not know how to avoid locked brakes should they encounter the need. ABS is a great thing for the vast majority of drivers.

Fair enough
The point I made was that it will take RL time to get a good enough system.

 

[brennan]

Read an article about new battery technologies a few months back:

https://physicsworld.com/a/beyond-the-lithium-ion-battery/

 

[innonimatu]

You are wrong on that one. They have the best battery tech in the business

You mean Panasonic has? And it's a dead end, electric cars need different batteries to come into mass use. This ones burn far too easily and are too hard to control.

Just look at the american car market. People are buying more used cars than new cars. What will be the value of a used Tesla? With the cost of replacing batteries? And will service such a car full of proprietary, non-standard bits? Theirs is a toy for the rich, not a car for the masses.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

You mean Panasonic has? And it's a dead end, electric cars need different batteries to come into mass use. This ones burn far too easily and are too hard to control.

Just look at the american car market. People are buying more used cars than new cars. What will be the value of a used Tesla? With the cost of replacing batteries? And will service such a car full of proprietary, non-standard bits? Theirs is a toy for the rich, not a car for the masses.

I would rather change the battery pack every 10 years knowing the batteries get cheaper and more capable with every passing year between now and then. I have to replace almost nothing else in the car - in striking contrast to virtually all ICE vehicles which need a large amount of wear-prone parts replaced.

The amount of maintenance most electric cars require is insanely low and half of what they do need is software updates, not hardware replacements. And replaceing the battery is effectively upgrading the car in a way you can't do to most ICE vehicles. To be fair, I am not sure how battery removing-friendly most manufacturers make their cars. It probably is not trivial but there's no reason it can't be made trivial by design.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Fair enough
The point I made was that it will take RL time to get a good enough system.

Yeah I have been listening to some NPR podcasts on autonomous driving and it is not nearly as good as car companies make it out to be right now. It will get there but it will take years of additional capital-intensive R&D.

One criticism of these car companies is that they ask for legislative breaks to research autonomy to make driving safer but at the same time they do not make the latest, proven safety equipment standard in all cars. There are lots of sensors and driver assistance programs that currently do save lives but the manufacturers only offer them in premium trims.

That's, well it's ethically dubious in my opionion, but it is downright hipocritical for the manufacturers to ask for handouts of various sorts in the name of safety when they do not prioritize safety over profits as it is right now.

 

[Goodfella]

You mean Panasonic has? And it's a dead end, electric cars need different batteries to come into mass use. This ones burn far too easily and are too hard to control.

Just look at the american car market. People are buying more used cars than new cars. What will be the value of a used Tesla? With the cost of replacing batteries? And will service such a car full of proprietary, non-standard bits? Theirs is a toy for the rich, not a car for the masses.

As it turns out, you can actually buy a used Tesla.

https://www.tesla.com/inventory/used/ms

So apparently around $38k is the value of a used Tesla (model S).

 

[innonimatu]

So no 35k cars from Tesla yet, even used?

If they really wanted to succeed they'd have had to give up being control freaks. New technology going against old and usable one needs to be cheaper and to give as many people as possible an interest in its success. Tesla keeps making expensive cars and trying to control everything about those cars.

I would rather change the battery pack every 10 years knowing the batteries get cheaper and more capable with every passing year between now and then. I have to replace almost nothing else in the car - in striking contrast to virtually all ICE vehicles which need a large amount of wear-prone parts replaced.

The amount of maintenance most electric cars require is insanely low and half of what they do need is software updates, not hardware replacements. And replaceing the battery is effectively upgrading the car in a way you can't do to most ICE vehicles. To be fair, I am not sure how battery removing-friendly most manufacturers make their cars. It probably is not trivial but there's no reason it can't be made trivial by design.

I agree that electric cars in theory require less maintenance. In practice, having seen how recent software development and electronics are being made, I'm not so optimistic. Expect multiple failures by the time they are some 8-10 years old. But that's just a wild guess.

This electric car think is showing itself to be rather flexible. Take the Aston-Martin conversion for old ICE cars they made, for an example! Still waiting to see how well and for what cost they'll do that.

Tesla is expensive for what it pretends to make, mass-market cars! Throw enough money at making a car and you can make a reasonable good electric one, the problem is making those in quantity, cheap. I don't expect even the established brands with the industrial experience to achieve that with current technology.

 

[Goodfella]

You're the one who said you couldn't buy a used Tesla. I'm just telling you that you can. Keep in mind that a new model S is $78k + so I'm sure you'll be able to buy a used model 3 for less than $20k in a few years (right now that's less likely given that the cars are still new and the queue makes even a used model 3 valuable).