The future of Tesla

[Hygro]

He shoulda asked first. Doing it after threatening California and effectively hating on us the people of Alameda County as our government very democratically reflects us, no way.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

He shoulda asked first. Doing it after threatening California and effectively hating on us the people of Alameda County as our government very democratically reflects us, no way.

I agree. Part of why California is facing such a huge deficit is because Newsom isn't willing to sacrifice our social net or to dial back necessary spending to keep businesses afloat. I think Musk could have gotten funds had he needed them - I cannot see our government allowing a big manufacturer in the Bay go under due to this crisis.

I just read an interesting article that says Tesla needs to start its own advertising to build a brand separate from Musk or else they risk Papa John-ing themselves.

 

[amadeus]

I think it’s too late to separate the brand from the man. I think of Tesla as “would I buy a car from that guy that smoked pot on Joe Rogan’s podcast?”

The answer to that question is no, and it probably has to do more with Joe Rogan. To me, he’s still the technician from NewsRadio, except now he has a podcast series about moon landing conspiracies or something? Whatever.

Not like I’m buying cars that start at $40,000 anyway.

 

[Hygro]

The cars are great and I’m not in the market for one, but Musk sucks. The Rogan thing was fun, it made me like both of them more. But Rogan sucks rn too.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Not like I’m buying cars that start at $40,000 anyway.

It pisses me off how much deception goes into Tesla pricing. They market it as a $35k car, which it is....if you factor in 7 years of gas savings upfront. Yeah that's not how that works. They do a bunch of other stuff like that to, like factoring in reduced maintenance and tax rebates which have mostly run out.

Someone was saying they couldn't see EV's being adopted in the UK because of a lack of chargers:
This British Startup May Have Solved Urban EV Charging

I actually think this is overkill. Just adding outlets to streetlights will fix the issue.

 

[amadeus]

The car I used to drive here I can get for $2,000 used and runs 45 miles to the gallon. Let’s see Leon Smuk compete at that price!

 

[Hygro]

https://apnews.com/2697c996036537779e9dea35e55c82b3

Tesla's zero emissions car strategy earns it $100 million in profit during 2q 2020 despite zero car production. This company is not on the brink.

 

[Hrothbern]

https://apnews.com/2697c996036537779e9dea35e55c82b3

Tesla's zero emissions car strategy earns it $100 million in profit during 2q 2020 despite zero car production. This company is not on the brink.

Which is a nice example of how government policies and regulations can change competition factors between companies.

 

[amadeus]

I always thought Musk wouldn't make money from making cars.

I never thought Musk would make money from not making cars.

 

[Moriarte]

The answer to that question is no, and it probably has to do more with Joe Rogan. To me, he’s still the technician from NewsRadio, except now he has a podcast series about moon landing conspiracies or something? Whatever.

Not quite certain: You’re not buying tesla because you didn’t like one of Elon Musk’s interviewers? Or because you don’t have 40,000?

On a serious note, I respect Tesla engineers for forcing the competition to adopt the huge display center-console. Every other mass car manufacturer that matters arrived at exactly the same conclusion, only ten years later. Having one touch screen in the middle enables elimination of all those prehistoric buttons, knobs and switches. This streamlines the application of upgrades. A new tech or internet application can be baked into tesla easier, interface itself can be upgraded weekly/monthly when proven more efficient (safe) than the old one. It’s a whole new level when there is big display at your fingertips.

 

[Hrothbern]

Not quite certain: You’re not buying tesla because you didn’t like one of Elon Musk’s interviewers? Or because you don’t have 40,000?

On a serious note, I respect Tesla engineers for forcing the competition to adopt the huge display center-console. Every other mass car manufacturer that matters arrived at exactly the same conclusion, only ten years later. Having one touch screen in the middle enables elimination of all those prehistoric buttons, knobs and switches. This streamlines the application of upgrades. A new tech or internet application can be baked into tesla easier, interface itself can be upgraded weekly/monthly when proven more efficient (safe) than the old one. It’s a whole new level when there is big display at your fingertips.

yes

a lot of complacency among the traditional car manufacturers.
The German Diesel affair a last convulsion to postpone the needed real generational change available from techs, needed by Climate.

Like Roman civ in civ6: if you do not bring in culture your soil, Caesar starts complaining.
The status quo inertia of the traditional car manufacturers made the opportunity for Tesla.

Too much profits too the dividends... too little profit invested in the needed changes.

 

[Farm Boy]

Ford is putting out a real hybrid for the F150. Which is huge assuming it works(it did with the aluminum frame changes). The world's best(probably) light truck line, actually attainable by people who need light trucks more than they need to look like they have a drivable penis.

 

[Hrothbern]

Musk wants to decrease the price of a Tesla Model 3 from $40,000 to $25,000 in a couple of years.
He bases this on building his own super-duper Lithium batteries with high cost efficiencies and latest techs.

With that $25,000 the Tesla can move from the Mercedes category to a Volkswagen category in price with the same performance... seizing the dominant market position for mainstream.... putting tremendous pressure on the traditional big car manufacturers to speed up their development.

Here an article in English language on the latest PR move by Musk (unfortunately without info on the cost logic and price)
https://www.theguardian.com/technol...ul-electric-vehicle-batteries-are-3-years-off

 

[Farm Boy]

Is that with real pricing or with the "7 years of fuel savings built in" sticker price lie? Musk it totally unbelievable when he talks cost.

 

[Hrothbern]

Is that with real pricing or with the "7 years of fuel savings built in" sticker price lie? Musk it totally unbelievable when he talks cost.

Without the small print IDK
We could ask @Timsup2nothin
But this article below of the Dutch Financial Times does suggest that it is $25,000 selling price at a dealer. The cost reduction coming mainly from cheaper battery manufacturing.
Considering the somewhat megalomaniac character of Musk, he will, I guess, not be satisfied with a niche Aston Martin market. He rather sees himself as the new Henry Ford and more.

The American car manufacturer Tesla expects to be able to drastically reduce the production costs of electric cars in the coming years. As a result, it should be possible to market a $ 25,000 model in three years. This allows Tesla to compete better with cars that still drive combustion engines.

Founder Elon Musk reported this at the so-called Battery Day of his company. The event in a parking lot in front of a Tesla factory in California was mainly about improvements in battery production. These are by far the largest cost item for electric cars.
Halving of battery costs
The costs of battery cells can be cut by more than half, the company says. This would be possible by using new production techniques and other materials than is currently common. Tesla also wants to take control of the extraction of lithium, an important raw material for batteries. In one to one and a half years, the company wants to start it in a pilot plant. Large-scale production is possible in three years.

With a sales price of $ 25,000, the company says it can deliver an 'affordable car' for the first time. The cheapest Tesla, the Model 3, now costs just under $ 40,000 in the US market. In the Netherlands this is about € 50,000, a price category that mainly attracted business drivers with the help of a much lower addition.

High expectations
Investors were eagerly looking forward to the event. Tesla TSLA's stock price of $ 424.23 - has increased nearly fivefold this year as the company moved out of manufacturing troubles and turned profitable. Small investors have flocked to the ten-year-old listed fund. With a market value of nearly $ 400 billion, the company is now more expensive on the trading floor than Toyota, Volkswagen and BMW combined.
On Tuesday, the price fell by more than 5%, because Musk had tempered expectations in a tweet. He said the announcements he would make would not go into production until 2022. The price fell further in the aftermarket.

'It doesn't work completely yet'
Musk (49) took a few punches on stage. "We still have a lot of work to do," said the improvements Tesla is seeking in battery cell manufacturing. 'It doesn't work in its entirety yet, we are close to it.' Workers around him stressed that tough challenges need to be overcome.

The company has a reputation for being very optimistic about things. That also seemed to apply to Musk's claim that Tesla will sell 20 million cars in the long term. Volkswagen, now the world's largest car manufacturer, did not exceed eleven million units last year. Competition for electric cars is increasing, including from China, but now also from Europe. Tesla will have to deal with this harshly in the coming years.

Shareholders who ring the horn
The presentation took about two and a half hours, including the annual shareholders' meeting. Tesla had to divert to a parking lot due to the outbreak of the corona virus. Some 250 shareholders were allowed to listen to it while they were in a Model 3. They regularly showed their enthusiasm by sounding their horns. "This is without a doubt a new approach, a Tesla drive-in," Musk said as he took the stage in jeans and a t-shirt.

The Tesla figurehead emphasized that the company that manages to build the best factories will ultimately win the battle in the car market. “Any car manufacturer will soon be able to make batteries that drive cars over long distances, but not every company will be great at production. We want to be the best in the world at this. ' His presentation regularly resembled an ode to the organization of efficient production processes.

Need new factories
Tesla now manufactures cars in Fremont, California and in Shanghai. Factories in Austin (Texas) and Berlin are still under construction. According to Musk, it is important to have at least one factory on every continent for a good cash flow.
The company will also start producing its own battery cells in Berlin. In the United States, it works together with Panasonic in this area, and in Shanghai with LG and CATL. These companies remain Tesla partners, Musk emphasized, but in-house production of the cells is necessary to reduce costs faster.

https://fd.nl/ondernemen/1358111/tesla-denkt-prijs-elektrische-auto-drastisch-te-kunnen-verlagen

 

[Farm Boy]

Well, may be interesting. We'll see!

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Musk it totally unbelievable when he talks cost.

And schedule

 

[innonimatu]

Another seemingly typical Musk move on Teslas, regarding lowering price and cutting quality and service

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) on Wednesday asked Tesla Inc to recall 158,000 Model S and Model X vehicles over media control unit (MCU) failures that could pose safety risks by leading to touchscreen displays not working.
[...]
NHTSA added that “during our review of the data, Tesla provided confirmation that all units will inevitably fail given the memory device’s finite storage capacity.”
[...]
NHTSA said in November it reviewed 12,523 claims and complaints about the issue, which would impact roughly 8% of the vehicles under investigation.
Many complaints said Tesla requires owners to pay to replace the unit once warranties expire.

 

[Ferocitus]

Tesla's future depends on having reliable supply chains for critical materials. It's not a problem unique to Tesla.


Just one interesting graphic among others from: Critical Minerals and U.S. Public Policy, June 28, 2019.
https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R45810.html

For now, Tesla have to take responsibility for all the glitches and screw-ups in design and manufacture of their cars.
And the expensive recalls @innonimatu mentioned in the previous post.

IMO, Tesla will continue in China for a few more years. When China decides to push hard to achieving their zero emission
goal for vehicles, they will produce them for their own domestic market based on work by Tesla and other manufacturers.
Tesla can then choose to be part of that push, or move production to some other country if they feel aggrieved. Of course,
the factories, supply systems and industrial knowledge can't be removed from China. Boo hoo, Elon.

 

[innonimatu]

I suspect you may actually be underestimating China's current ability with electrical vehicles. They're already competent enough, in their local manufacturers, to beat Tesla.

I've been wondering why they bothered bankrolling Tesla's factory there and my best guess is that it was about buying influence with an up-and-coming american oligarch, useful in the context of the developing new cold war.