The Tipping Point

[Bootstoots]

I also read somewhere that the Republican legislators in one of those states only control their legislature by way of cunning gerrymandering; they won a majority of seats from a minority vote among the electorate.

Most states who's districts are partisan drawn are cunningly gerrymandered. By both parties. It's not limited to one.

In Wisconsin, the lower legislative house (State Assembly) had a popular vote of 54-46 for the Democrats in this election. This resulted in an Assembly split 63-36 in favor of the Republicans, with a net gain of only one seat for the Democrats. In no election since the redistricting in 2011 have the Democrats won more than 39 of the 99 Assembly seats. Wisconsin is gerrymandered so thoroughly that it would take an implausibly huge landslide for the Democrats to have any hope of winning at least the Assembly, and the state Senate is not much different.

Gerrymandering has long been a problem on both sides in most states, but there was some degree of restraint prior to the Republican midterm landslide in 2010. Parties in charge after a census year would give themselves an advantage, but not so extensively and with such attention to detail that the minority party would have no realistic hope of winning a state legislature majority again for the foreseeable future.

Democrats did gerrymander some in the few states they controlled after 2010. Illinois was gerrymandered somewhat, but the effects were minor: the state Congressional delegation was split 12-6 for the Democrats on a 57-41 popular vote in 2012; this turned to 10-8 in 2014 on a 51-49 split. In Maryland, a Republican representative in the western part of the state was knocked off by redrawing his district to extend down to the DC suburbs, turning 6-2 into 7-1. But that's about it - in the places they did have control, the gerrymandering was comparatively minor.

I'm also unaware of any examples where incoming governors and other state-level officials were stripped of much of their power by lame duck sessions if the wrong party happened to win, either. I find it difficult to imagine that anything like this has happened since maybe the Populist-Republican challenge to Democrats in the South in the 1880s and 1890s, although I wouldn't rule out that there could have been something comparable more recently.

Creating a bit of an advantage through gerrymandering and other alterations of the rules is unfortunate but normal. The Republican efforts since 2010 in e.g. North Carolina and Wisconsin have gone far beyond this, though, making it implausible for Democratic legislative victories to happen at all no matter the popular vote numbers. At this point, those states cannot be considered remotely democratic.

 

[El_Machinae]

Both-sidesism really grinds my gears at this historical moment

It's fair, but it's very worth trying to remain objective. It's hard, because there's the need to downplay criticisms regarding the behaviour of the anti-Trump people, but it's important to do so in ways that will persuade people outside the echo-chamber. The average fence-sitter is acting on information being presented, with their own internal biases. A bad argument will trigger a rejection, so crafting the arguments in the best way possible is still important.

 

[rah]

Quite true, but it seems reasonable to assume that the same party will not continue to represent the majority forever, and in principle it's best to take those powers out of the hands of the party in power.

Exactly. The Dems have gerrymandered the district in Illinois to make sure they keep control and will not allow it on the ballot. Anyone that thinks otherwise is just plain naive.

 

[Lexicus]

It's fair, but it's very worth trying to remain objective. It's hard, because there's the need to downplay criticisms regarding the behaviour of the anti-Trump people, but it's important to do so in ways that will persuade people outside the echo-chamber. The average fence-sitter is acting on information being presented, with their own internal biases. A bad argument will trigger a rejection, so crafting the arguments in the best way possible is still important.

I mean, I criticize the anti-Trump people constantly, as you know full well.

 

[Ajidica]

I mean, I criticize the anti-Trump people constantly, as you know full well.

True.
In real life I end up more time criticizing the Dems/Never Trumpers on how they need to a) up their game and b) lose the technocratic elitism.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Gerrymandering has long been a problem on both sides in most states, but there was some degree of restraint prior to the Republican midterm landslide in 2010.

There's something else that's compounding the problem of late, and that is that supercomputing has been employed to gerrymander with greater and greater precision. I saw a report about it probably two or three years back. I wish I could remember more specifics.

 

[Estebonrober]

There's something else that's compounding the problem of late, and that is that supercomputing has been employed to gerrymander with greater and greater precision. I saw a report about it probably two or three years back. I wish I could remember more specifics.

Rove won.

https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2016/07/19/gerrymandering-republicans-redmap

'That plan worked spectacularly. It's why today Republicans have a majority in nearly two-thirds of the country's state legislative chambers. And it's why in 2012 Democratic statehouse candidates won 51 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania, which voted for Barack Obama in the presidential election, yet those candidates ended up with only 28 percent of the seats in the legislature.'

 

[mitsho]

Just change to proportional representation, all your problems would be solved...

(But yes, I know) But all that energy going into redistricting and so on, just seems crazy.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Hey the Republicans in Wisconsin found a new tactic - not only did they strip the governor and attorney general of power, they went ahead and confirmed 82 nominations to state office to prevent the incoming governor from putting together a state executive branch entirely. They did this in a single day.

I'm not even really joking that much when I ask this: At what point is it warranted and appropriate for the military to intervene? How many states will experience Republican coups before we decide enough is enough? Three? Five? Twenty seven? Or not until the Federal government is completely stolen as well?

Kind of wondering where all the marchers and protestors are to stop this slow motion coup. It's easy to paint this as a Wisconsin problem but tomorrow it'll be Michigan, yesterday it was North Carolina.

Best case scenario, Walker will line-item veto a few parts of the new shackles on the office of governor in an attempt to save his legacy while signing into law the bulk of the package. There's been a lot of calls for Walker to learn from H.W. and veto the laws entirely to support the incoming governor from a sense of dignity and civility. He's dumb enough to try and have it both ways if I had to guess.

Plus, he had to 'nominate' all the new state officials they rammed through which itself is as much a blow to the incoming governor and an affront to democracy as the new laws themselves so he's clearly not concerned with his legacy.

The most worrying trend in all of this is the self-escalation. The democrats are not really responding with force (other than a few protests at the state house) or are in any way provoking further action yet the Republicans are going all-in. At this point they might as well declare the election void.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

The Democrats won the popular vote in this election by over 9 million votes. That's the largest midterm landslide in our nation's history. Yet it only translated to 40 or 41 house seats. The Republicans won the popular vote by less than 6 million in 2010 yet picked up 63 seats. They've also lost two out of the last 5 presidential elections by popular vote but still got the presidency and in 2016 stole the Supreme Court. They are rewriting election rules across the board (and have been for a decade) and now they're rewriting the rules of basic governance and embracing naked corruption.

 

[Estebonrober]

Hey the Republicans in Wisconsin found a new tactic - not only did they strip the governor and attorney general of power, they went ahead and confirmed 82 nominations to state office to prevent the incoming governor from putting together a state executive branch entirely. They did this in a single day.

I'm not even really joking that much when I ask this: At what point is it warranted and appropriate for the military to intervene? How many states will experience Republican coups before we decide enough is enough? Three? Five? Twenty seven? Or not until the Federal government is completely stolen as well?

Kind of wondering where all the marchers and protestors are to stop this slow motion coup. It's easy to paint this as a Wisconsin problem but tomorrow it'll be Michigan, yesterday it was North Carolina.

Imagine dems passing socializing say the auto industry in michigan. . .in a lame duck session. I mean why not right?

https://www.politico.com/magazine/s...-republican-session-michigan-wisconsin-222768

 

[hobbsyoyo]

That piece shows how we've really entered the wild west of power grabbing. I am not sure that there is precedent for this behavior in our history. I recommend people reading the full piece.


I know it's been said several times already but it's worth pointing out because it's absolutely outrageous -

Democrats won over 54% of the Wisconsin vote and only have a 1/3 of the seats in their state legislature! This is insane.

Wasn't Wisconsin also the state where the gerrymandered districts were ordered to be thrown out by the court but they let them use them for *one more election* ? And there was one state where the court threw out the districts like 3 consecutive times and the Republicans just said '**** you' and created the same damn districts again?

The corruption is hard to keep track of.

Elections have consequences. But only for Democrats.

 

[Lexicus]

The Republicans who voted for this measure should be dragged out of their homes and shot. This country would be a better place if legislators were too afraid of dying to pass such laws.

 

[El_Machinae]

I think it's time to be a bit more proactive on Plan B. Now, the average concerned citizen has many concerns, and it's impossible (and inefficient) to divide yourself too much. But there should be legal challenges out there to the gerrymandering. Find a few, and help out by boosting their signal. Maybe assign one of your friends to caring about the issue, if they're not currently being sufficiently pro-active.

 

[Lexicus]

This isn't gerrymandering, it's "power grabbing." It's "changing the rules to make a loss matter less and stop you from losing in future." It's not remotely connected to liberal democracy and if they want to play that game, I don't see why we shouldn't just throw them in prison without trial or summarily execute them.

 

[Phrossack]

The coup in Wisconsin is a turning point in American history. It's the most blatant power grab we've ever seen...and the people are so utterly desensitized by now, the Republicans so fanatical, the "moderates" so married to both-sides-ism, that I don't see any way out. Even armed revolution would just work in favor of the side with the military and the weapons.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I think it's time to be a bit more proactive on Plan B. Now, the average concerned citizen has many concerns, and it's impossible (and inefficient) to divide yourself too much. But there should be legal challenges out there to the gerrymandering. Find a few, and help out by boosting their signal. Maybe assign one of your friends to caring about the issue, if they're not currently being sufficiently pro-active.

I know you have been paying attention - but we have been fighting this in court - and winning! Yet the courts have allowed state legislatures to resubmit their own new redistricts which - who saw this coming - are basically the same as the ones shot down. The courts have even allowed elections to be held for the old, unconstitutional districts. You've got one side openly flaunting the rule of law and the will of the courts. We're past the point where courts are a sufficient counter.

And if NC-9 is any indication, even the integrity of the actual ballots cast is in question. Despite all the cries from Republicans about wide spread voter fraud it is now obvious that the only meaningful voting fraud has been a concerted effort by the Republicans themselves.

In the past we could general count on a rationale, sane Federal government to intervene but that's not going to happen now. The Senate under McConnell won't do anything to stop this and hey, they just stole the Supreme Court so that's off the table as well. And of course the conspiracy theorist in chief in the White House is all in on any and all efforts to maintain power.

What is a reasonable, actionable Plan B at this point?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

What is a reasonable, actionable Plan B at this point?

Noticing that it still isn't really working for them.

While Wisconsin is the current demonstration of "OMG we're losing our grip" power grabbing, it isn't the first. North Carolina Republicans did the same thing when their citizens elected a Democrat governor. In the next election, despite all the gerrymandering and outright election fraud, the citizens broke the GOP supermajorities in both chambers of their state legislature. Every desperate measure by the GOP tarnishes their brand further and speeds their demise.

 

[Phrossack]

Noticing that it still isn't really working for them.

While Wisconsin is the current demonstration of "OMG we're losing our grip" power grabbing, it isn't the first. North Carolina Republicans did the same thing when their citizens elected a Democrat governor. In the next election, despite all the gerrymandering and outright election fraud, the citizens broke the GOP supermajorities in both chambers of their state legislature. Every desperate measure by the GOP tarnishes their brand further and speeds their demise.

What makes you think it tarnishes their brand? They're the party that has voters openly declaring they prefer hostile foreign dictators to Democrats; if anything, I think Republican voters will like their politicians more the dirtier they fight.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Noticing that it still isn't really working for them.

While Wisconsin is the current demonstration of "OMG we're losing our grip" power grabbing, it isn't the first. North Carolina Republicans did the same thing when their citizens elected a Democrat governor. In the next election, despite all the gerrymandering and outright election fraud, the citizens broke the GOP supermajorities in both chambers of their state legislature. Every desperate measure by the GOP tarnishes their brand further and speeds their demise.

I do not agree with this at all. So, they broke a supermajority in one state. Meanwhile that same state engaged in post-election reprisals against the winning side which laid the groundwork for copycats in two other states. Then the party in that same state committed brazen voter fraud while using the specter of voter fraud to restrict access to polls for their opponents. Oh and Republicans still control both houses of the state legislature so it's not exactly as if they have been swept from power.

You have mentioned elsewhere that we've reached a point where gerrymandering and other efforts have gotten so bad that they're good in that they will or are blowing up in the Republican's face.

I see no evidence of that to be honest. A 9 million vote spread translating into 20+ fewer seats in the house than a 6 million vote spread is a massive problem with our system. Democrats won the Wisconsin election across the board but only got a 1/3 of the seats.

The dismantling of checks and balances at the federal level is going to take a decade of concerted effort to fix and that's assuming voters deliver Democratic supermajorities to both houses of Congress for that long and successive Democratic presidencies. And even that won't touch the undermining of our federal court system which is now going to be massively right-leaning for at least two decades barring extreme (and potentially unconstitutional) action by the Democrats.

Factor in the prevalence and power of money in politics and you have massive, unelected vested interests in pushing the right wing, slow motion coup further. It's hard for a society to come back from the place we've taken it.

Just because they are not yet rounding political opponents up and throwing them in gulag doesn't mean they haven't achieved the power to do so. The forces of the right are testing that power out at the border and with the newly emboldened border patrol services. It's only a small leap from rounding up immigrants and throwing them in concentration camps to doing it to your own people.

I do not want to come off as a wolf-crying, sky-is-falling doomsayer but this is an existential crisis for our country. For the first time in my life I am seriously assessing my options to leave the country.

If California were to hold a secession vote I would seriously consider voting in favor of it. Given how vociferously I have attacked that idea in the past should at least inform your understanding of my take on the seriousness of the situation.