The world in 2100

[Birdjaguar]

Let's make a thread about what we foresee for the world in 80 years. The internet will archive it and perhaps in 80 years a researcher will discover it and laugh at our thinking.

Some areas you might include are:

• Technology
• Transportation
• Politics and nations
• Population
• Space exploration
• Food
• Power
• Products and Consumerism
• Cities
• Land use
• Climate
• Religion
• Personal Freedom
• Healthcare
• Education
• More of your choosing

 

[Kouvb593kdnuewnd]

Don't think it will be that different from now, like the difference between 2000 to 2020 is not that major and assuming that apply to further decades, the difference between 2020 and 2040 is not going to be particular major and so on.

Technology predictions is something humans are not good at as can be seen here:

And here:

 

[Birdjaguar]

I would agree completely. We are also not so good about political prediction. I started this thread because of your year 2100 prediction about Russia and China.

 

[Narz]

the difference between 2020 and 2040 is not going to be particular major and so on.

I think it will be pretty different. More so than between 2000 and 2020 which was kinda uneventful except for smartphones and youtube

 

[Kouvb593kdnuewnd]

I think it will be pretty different. More so than between 2000 and 2020 which was kinda uneventful except for smartphones and youtube

As far as I can tell no, politically there may be the area that will be most different, maybe becoming similar to the cold war but between USA, China and later India, maybe also europe/EU. Technology, will not be much different from now, atleast it wont impact lives much, no singularity or anything like that. Even year 2100 will most likely look alot more like today than anything from sci fi movies.

GDP per capita on the world level seems to have grown about 3000 every 20 years since 1960: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD

So assuming the world have been at max possible growth since 1960 we get:

• 2040: Ca 14 000
• 2060: Ca 17 000
• 2080: Ca 20 000
• 2100: Ca 23 000

But consumption will likely be different, probably less physically things than today.

 

[Valka D'Ur]

I think it will be pretty different. More so than between 2000 and 2020 which was kinda uneventful except for smartphones and youtube

9/11 and its aftereffects regarding security and shifting of global alliances and attitudes and where/how wars are conducted was hardly "uneventful".

Change isn't only about technology. It's about how society responds to changing technology and the natural world, and what kind of technology we deem necessary for the benefit of everyone.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I wonder to what extent coast cities will have to be abandoned or rebuilt over the rising water.

 

[Ferocitus]

I wonder to what extent coast cities will have to be abandoned or rebuilt over the rising water.

I wonder if Florida property owners will start playing hot potato well before 2100.

I know that enormous sums have already been spent on amelioration and many new developments and that infra-structure projects are being built to handle sea level rises of 2 metres or more. But a few hurricane-induced floods and who knows when people will decide to cut their losses and head for the hills.

 

[Narz]

9/11 and its aftereffects regarding security and shifting of global alliances and attitudes and where/how wars are conducted was hardly "uneventful".

Change isn't only about technology. It's about how society responds to changing technology and the natural world, and what kind of technology we deem necessary for the benefit of everyone.

Everyday life in the US pretty similar as in 2000.

Probably almost as much change to people's lives in the last 3 months than in the 20 years prior.

 

[Narz]

As far as I can tell no, politically there may be the area that will be most different, maybe becoming similar to the cold war but between USA, China and later India, maybe also europe/EU. Technology, will not be much different from now, atleast it wont impact lives much, no singularity or anything like that. Even year 2100 will most likely look alot more like today than anything from sci fi movies.

GDP per capita on the world level seems to have grown about 3000 every 20 years since 1960: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD

So assuming the world have been at max possible growth since 1960 we get:

• 2040: Ca 14 000
• 2060: Ca 17 000
• 2080: Ca 20 000
• 2100: Ca 23 000

But consumption will likely be different, probably less physically things than today

Climate change and overpopulation will probably have raped us pretty bad by 2100. I dont think we can count on things just rolling on forward "normally" (exponential growth) indefinitely.

I know so far the club of Rome mofos have been wrong and laughed at by the techno optimists but I dont see that trend continuing forever

 

[Valka D'Ur]

Everyday life in the US pretty similar as in 2000.

Probably almost as much change to people's lives in the last 3 months than in the 20 years prior.

Well, long before Trump, the aftermath killed any desire I might have had to visit the U.S. again (last time was in 1987, when it was super-easy to cross the border; they didn't even ask me for ID and coming home, they were happy with me producing the receipts for what I'd bought and I was under the limit so no duties were required).

In the late '90s I was invited to a filking convention in the U.S. That's something I've never experienced, and would love to attend. But we don't have them here, and crossing the border is no longer an option for a variety of reasons, some of them political (the agents sometimes ask Canadians their opinion of Trump, and I'm not capable of lying that much with a straight face).

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Most people will live on welfare and eat roasted crickets. And the worst part is they will enjoy it.

 

[Zardnaar]

Basically Dunedins gonna be as warm as Auckland and Auckland will be like Fiji.

Probably more droughts.

 

[Lohrenswald]

I think society will collapse

 

[Birdjaguar]

I think society will collapse

Which one? Where? Indonesia? Cuba? Mexico (too late they already did)?

 

[Lohrenswald]

Which one? Where? Indonesia? Cuba? Mexico (too late they already did)?

all of them

some countries and such might survive in some form but like not in a way I think makes the term "collapse" seem unwarranted

 

[Lemon Merchant]

I think by 2100, we will have solved the man-machine interface problem and basically we will be a jacked-in society of people living virtual lives over the internet or whatever comes afterward.

They will have to, because by 2100, the Earth is going to be a climate destroyed dystopian hell-hole. (Assuming that we don't blow ourselves to smithereens first.)

 

[Valka D'Ur]

^There was a Sliders episode about that, back in the '90s. It was thoroughly depressing, and I don't recall how the episode addressed the matter of how these virtual reality-addicted people did things like eating and other basic needs.

 

[Kouvb593kdnuewnd]

Climate change and overpopulation will probably have raped us pretty bad by 2100. I dont think we can count on things just rolling on forward "normally" (exponential growth) indefinitely.

I know so far the club of Rome mofos have been wrong and laughed at by the techno optimists but I dont see that trend continuing forever

Economic growth on the world level in terms of gdp per capita seems to be linear, not exponential. Population growth is slowing down. It is hard to say what impact climate change will have had by year 2100.

US GDP per capita also seems to grow linear with about $18 000 every 30 years: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?locations=US

 

[thecrazyscot]

Some of my predictions:

• Climate Change
  • Extreme temperatures and weather will be the new norm in many places.
  • Places that are now the hottest places people live will be virtually uninhabitable on a large scale without artificial cooling (Arabian Peninsula, parts of the American Southwest, etc).
  • Droughts will become more common, more severe, and last longer. Places like Las Vegas will probably just become too difficult to get water to, so will have to be abandoned. Other places will have been battered by extreme weather so often that most people will find it more cost-effective and easier to simply move, leading to urban abandonment in certain cities. Forest fires will be fiercer, longer, and more deadly. Some forests will never recover as the fires will be too severe.
  • The suffering of the poor in poor, disaster-prone areas will only deepen and become more horrifying. Imagine if Haiti were hit by one or more Hurricane Matthews a year. "Humanitarian crisis" will become "life as normal".
  • New farmland will open up in the formerly tundra regions of Canada and Russia, which will prevent a worldwide food catastrophe as previous bread-baskets lose access to aquifers and fall prey to desertification (hello American midwest). I wouldn't be surprised if there is a fairly large population migration to these new "temperate" zones.
  • Sea level rise means quite a few Island nations will simply cease to exist, with their populations being absorbed into the nearest neighbor willing to take them.
• Population
  • The previous as well as ever-present human conflict will create a lot of refugees, which will lead to greater conflict and suffering (as we've seen in current refugee crises) as nations will not be willing to take very many in. Something which may balance this is developed countries with low birth rates may open their doors wider for refugees in an attempt to shore up the economy for rapidly aging populations. Overall population will grow, but the majority of the growth will be in underdeveloped countries (as is the case now), which will increase migration and conflict opportunities.
• Power
  • Power will be produced by almost exclusively renewable sources, and our use of fossil fuels will be long in the past. Fusion may even be figured out by that point. This may help balance some of the previous doom and gloom, making places habitable with cheap solar/wind power via indoor climate control, indoor agriculture, and desalination plants.
• Space Exploration
  • We will have permanent bases on the Moon, and exploratory missions to Mars will have occurred, mostly driven by the super-rich (anything beyond that will simply require too much of a technological leap than is feasible to make realistic, even if we push the timeline out be several hundred more years)
  • Resource extraction from sources in space will have started, and attempts to process resources "on-site" or at least without required a trip back to Earth will start to build the infrastructure for completely space-based industries and settlements, whether those are lunar settlements or larger space stations. These bases will be nothing more than outposts though in terms of their total population.
  • Space Tourism will be a thing, with Space Hotels, etc.
• Personal Freedom
  • Personal freedoms and liberties will be curtailed more and more as long-term societal and population shifts due to climate change will be, in the end, supported/organized/controlled by governments as the only organizations with the structure and scope able to address the logistical problems. Since they will be in control, freedoms and liberties will be curtailed to keep order during the transition and will not be restored (because they never are).
• Religion
  • I think Religion will become more important, rather than less, as people tend to search for hope as life gets harder
• Internet/Technology in general
  • I think the Internet and Technology in General has the opportunity to prevent or subvert many of my predictions, as it changes many considerations (can counteract repressive regimes, make education freely available, broaden access to healthcare, or even just allow society to continue to function on a broad and extensive level as it does now even in the face of drastic climate or societal change).