Monarchies Are in Decline the World Over
The death of Queen Elizabeth II and ascension of her son, the new King Charles III, is a reminder that while a world carved up by emperors, khagans, kings and grand dukes might have long passed, quite a few queens, princes and sultans still wander about in countries that, at least on paper, are monarchies.
Just over 40 countries lay some sort of claim to monarchy, if you include the 14 Commonwealth countries other than the U.K. that formally still recognize the Brit-ish sovereign as their head of state. This figure has changed little since the 1980s, the point at which decolonization was mostly finished. This is sometimes cited as evidence that monarchies have been surprisingly stable. But a closer look at the numbers suggest monarchy is undergoing relentless decline. Running the numbers requires some assumptions about what exactly counts as a monarchy. “This is not an easy question to resolve,” said John Gerring, a government professor at the University of Texas, who has studied the decline of monarchy.
Yet even with the broadest definition, monarchy has taken quite a decline. At the beginning of 1950 over one-third of the world’s population lived in a country, colony or commonwealth lorded over by some monarch. As empires cracked up—mostly Britain’s (especially with India’s departure from the Commonwealth in 1950) but also the Dutch and Belgian empires—population under a monarch fell, to 9.3% by the 1980s. It has now slipped to 7.6%.
Judged by share of global economic output instead of population, the picture is a bit better, but the direction is the same. Some constitutional monarchies, where monarchs share power with an organized government, are large and wealthy— Japan and the U.K., for example— but aren’t growing rapidly. India this year overtook the U.K. as the world’s fifth-largest economy, according to International Monetary Fund data. Monarchies today represent 15.8% of global GDP, down from nearly a quarter of global GDP in 1973, with many beset by aging populations. Including the Commonwealth, there’s an additional 4.1 percentage points.
Monarchs are aging, too. Queen Elizabeth II, who died at age 96, assumed the throne at age 25 in 1952, when the average monarch was about 44, according to my calculations. Nor was she the youngest: Faisal II, the last king of Iraq, was 16 at the time; he had assumed the throne at age 3. Today, the average monarch is 67. But to what extent are these characters really monarchs? They have robes and crowns and often descend directly from influential (or just violent) people who genuinely controlled their country at some point in the past. Today, though, many are just reality stars, their family discord endlessly dissected, with no political role. Or, put more charitably, “only a handful of monarchs retain their titles and their prerogative,” wrote Mr. Gerring of the University of Texas and his co-authors in a 2020 paper titled “Why Monarchy? The Rise and Demise of a Regime Type,” which created a data set of monarchies dating in some cases to the 1100s.
A true monarchy, in their classification, has four key characteristics. The first three are: it is hereditary and held by a single individual, who is endowed with life tenure. For example the Agong is sometimes called the king of Malaysia, but he is elected to five-year terms. Fourth, a true monarch must have “non-trivial importance in running the affairs of state,” they write. This is what rules out many monarchs, including King Charles III. Many monarchs are, like the human appendix, vestigial in that they were important once, but have stuck around long after their primary purpose faded. (This might be unfair to the appendix, which newer research suggests might be a useful reservoir of gut bacteria.)
King Charles III has little power in the U.K. government, let alone in the 14 Commonwealth realms, including Canada and Australia, which by tradition put English monarchs on their money. Typically, a governor-general serves as a representative of the crown and carries out ceremonial functions. For most of human history, most governments were monarchies. Thomas Jefferson’s assertion that governments derive their powers from the consent of the governed was slow to catch on.
It wasn’t until 1870, well after the American and French revolutions, that monarchies began to decline by Mr. Gerring’s metric. Nonmonarchies first ex- monarchies in 1910. His paper suggests that, more than any other factor, the rise of mass communications drove the decline by enabling a new generation of leaders to communicate directly to their populations without relying on generational continuity to maintain awareness.
Monarchies often erode over time, chipped away as parliaments or other democratic institutions grow in power. One could quibble with the exact moment monarchy is lost. By Mr. Gerring’s metric, the U.K. lost its claim to true monarchy in 1884, the year that the Third Reform Act enfranchised a majority of the U.K.’s men to vote for Parliament, shifting control from the monarch and landed gentry to voters.
By his criteria, Mr. Gerring identifies just 14 true monarchies: Bahrain, Bhutan, Brunei, Eswatini (long known as Swaziland until the king renamed it for his birthday), Jordan, Kuwait, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tonga and the United Arab Emirates. They account for just 1.4% of the global population and 1.9% of GDP.
But even if the numbers show a more decisive decline in monarchy than the coverage of King Charles III might suggest, don’t confuse that with the triumph of democracy. One-man rule is alive in well in places like Russia and China. They just don’t call themselves monarchies.
Nice graphs:
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