(EDIT: The exit polling cited below is dubious. It appears the exit polls used here did not conduct interviews in Spanish, so the results are going to disproportionately favor English-speaking Latinos. Latino Decisions has the margin based on actual votes at 78-19, in line with previous polling by that pollster. There still appears to be a lot of interesting variation; see site for more.)
One of the most interesting results of the night is that Trump's voter base is not actually all-white; it's still pretty white, being the GOP and all, but it appears to be less white than Mitt Romney's voters four years ago. The margin was 65-29 for Clinton among Latinos, compared to Obama's 71-27 margin among Hispanic voters four years ago. The margins would then be 36 points now versus 44 points then, for a swing of 8 percentage points to Trump. The black vote also appears to have reverted to its pre-Obama 80-point margin rather than the 2012 87-point margin. Meanwhile, the white margin went from 20 to 21 points; I would assume this is within the margin of error. College-educated whites and non-college educated whites did split by quite a bit, but the college-educated group still stayed 4 points more Republican than usual. The gender gap did get quite a bit wider as expected, but this is about the only demographic prediction that really came true.
Here's the link: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...s-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/
It would appear that mainstream liberals greatly overestimated the role of racial demography in this election, and that Trump had substantial appeal to Latino citizens, presumably especially Latino men. I have a radical suggestion, which I got from the polling thread when inno predicted the polls were going to be crap and that dividing people up by demographic groups is both flawed and dehumanizing. I thought he was wrong, but as often happens, it turned out he had made the right call.
Is it possible that people really don't like being chopped up and treated as racial/religious/gender/etc. demographics, and is it possible that attitudes among different racial and ethnic groups are more similar to those of whites than liberals assumed? There are still big differences, obviously, but maybe we should dial back the use of race to explain everything.
Finally, is the fact that the Trump Train contains a significant number of Latino citizens going to have any moderating effect on how he will behave towards Latinos, or towards blacks?
One of the most interesting results of the night is that Trump's voter base is not actually all-white; it's still pretty white, being the GOP and all, but it appears to be less white than Mitt Romney's voters four years ago. The margin was 65-29 for Clinton among Latinos, compared to Obama's 71-27 margin among Hispanic voters four years ago. The margins would then be 36 points now versus 44 points then, for a swing of 8 percentage points to Trump. The black vote also appears to have reverted to its pre-Obama 80-point margin rather than the 2012 87-point margin. Meanwhile, the white margin went from 20 to 21 points; I would assume this is within the margin of error. College-educated whites and non-college educated whites did split by quite a bit, but the college-educated group still stayed 4 points more Republican than usual. The gender gap did get quite a bit wider as expected, but this is about the only demographic prediction that really came true.
Here's the link: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...s-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/
It would appear that mainstream liberals greatly overestimated the role of racial demography in this election, and that Trump had substantial appeal to Latino citizens, presumably especially Latino men. I have a radical suggestion, which I got from the polling thread when inno predicted the polls were going to be crap and that dividing people up by demographic groups is both flawed and dehumanizing. I thought he was wrong, but as often happens, it turned out he had made the right call.
Is it possible that people really don't like being chopped up and treated as racial/religious/gender/etc. demographics, and is it possible that attitudes among different racial and ethnic groups are more similar to those of whites than liberals assumed? There are still big differences, obviously, but maybe we should dial back the use of race to explain everything.
Finally, is the fact that the Trump Train contains a significant number of Latino citizens going to have any moderating effect on how he will behave towards Latinos, or towards blacks?
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