UK Politics VI - Will Britain Steir to Karmer Waters?

[Senethro]

You have not quite worked it out.

It was the over the top SJWs that enabled the re-election of Donald Trump
and the net zero ideologists who are currently enabling Reform UK.

Can you show any evidence for this? I suspect this is a vibes backed statement.

And, to differing proportions in US/UK, this kind of statement is typical of those wishing to blame people who are not and were never in power, but still wish to grind that axe.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Full recount in Runcorn and Helsby

There’s going to be a full recount in the Runcorn and Helsby byelection as Reform UK were ahead by just four votes.

The mood in the count centre is one of utter disbelief. If the recount returns the same result, Reform UK will have overturned one of Labour’s safest seats by just four votes.

Apparently the recount gave Reform a win by 6 votes.

At time of typing Reform are doing much better than I expected in the local elections.

Local election results 2025 in England

Get the latest news and election results in the 2025 Local elections from BBC News

www.bbc.co.uk

• Reform UK
  487
  487
  (Reform UK: 487 councillors, 487 councillors gained)
• Liberal Democrat
  217
  91
  (Liberal Democrat: 217 councillors, 91 councillors gained)
• Conservative
  189
  459
  (Conservative: 189 councillors, 459 councillors lost)
• Independent
  62
  19
  (Independent: 62 councillors, 19 councillors lost)
• Labour
  54
  126
  (Labour: 54 councillors, 126 councillors lost)
• Green
  50
  27
  (Green: 50 councillors, 27 councillors gained)

​

 

[EnglishEdward]

Can you show any evidence for this? I suspect this is a vibes backed statement.

I am unable to find a credible alternative explanation for the election of Donald Trump..

And, to differing proportions in US/UK, this kind of statement is typical of those wishing to blame people who are not and were never in power, but still wish to grind that axe.

Edward Miliband is very much in power.

 

[Mega Tsunami]

A seismic victory for Remain today by just 6 votes? Or just a mid term go at the government?
Usually it is the LibDems that are the go-to party to punish the incumbents. This time it seems different because Reform are ahead of both Labour and the Tories in the country wide polls.

The prospect of Farage being our next PM looms a little larger.
It is, of course, a long 4 years to go to the next election and anything could happen and probably will.

Labour seems to be blaming their loss on the removal of the winter fuel allowance and immigration being out of control.

It was noticeable that Starmer did not visit Runcorn during this by-election and there is talk that he will not be standing at the next election. If he steps down, it will almost certainly be Miliband that is elected as Labour leader (again!).
(It seems, rather strangely, the Labour members love him and so he would be a shoe in.)
If that happens, Labour will almost certainly lose the next election.

 

[Arakhor]

You have not quite worked it out.

It was the over the top SJWs that enabled the re-election of Donald Trump
and the net zero ideologists who are currently enabling Reform UK.

That's a reliable right-wing attack line, isn't it? Blame anyone agitating for a world that isn't entirely crap for all the terrible things going on in politics. Just ignore the endless grifters on social media, the billionaire-owned media companies and the millions in dark money shaping our elections. Also, ignore all the people who actually voted for the Trumps and Farages in the world - it's always the left-wingers' fault.

I am unable to find a credible alternative explanation for the election of Donald Trump.

That's a failure of either your imagination or your research, but jumping straight to "uppity SJWs" is so 2015.

 

[Senethro]

I am unable to find a credible alternative explanation for the election of Donald Trump..

Edward Miliband is very much in power.

More like you just lack ANY credible explanation. You should just straight up say that first.

And a meek inadequate netj-zero effort made to be palatable to industry and capital, but nonetheless painted as villainous in the media is not great evidence. It more speaks to the power of propaganda, if it is really what causes people to turn away.

 

[Mega Tsunami]

I understand that:

Only one prime minister in the last half a century has been so comprehensively humiliated in their first parliamentary test since securing a majority. That was the hapless John Major, in the aftermath of the Black Wednesday debacle in 1992 that sealed his own political demise.

 

[EnglishEdward]

More like you just lack ANY credible explanation. You should just straight up say that first.

I don't regard the explanations in this forum e.g that Trump voters are doofuses as credible.

And a meek inadequate netj-zero effort made to be palatable to industry and capital, but nonetheless painted as villainous in the media is not great evidence. It more speaks to the power of propaganda, if it is really what causes people to turn away.

Since when has closing down industries been palatable to those who work in those industries and accordingly lose their jobs?

 

[Senethro]

Since when has closing down industries been palatable to those who work in those industries and accordingly lose their jobs?

My solution would be UBI (or at least some kind of years long retraining/relocation benefit) but again a solution that made workers less exploitable would not be palatable.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Labour seems to be blaming their loss on the removal of the winter fuel allowance and immigration being out of control.

I think it is more than that.

People have noticed some inconsistencies between:

(a) being in favour of airport expansion to get growth (more C02 producing aircraft) and reducing C02 aiming at net zero.

(b) proposing to solve things with AI that is very energy intensive despite net zero objectives

(c) planning to get UK troops into Ukraine, but without US backing and without providing more funding for the military

(d) being in favour of law and order, but promoting more early prison releases

(e) favouring a one way EU reset with a return to de facto freedom of movement (for EU under 30s) but not for UK OAPs (in Spain) etc.

(f) wishing to sign a defence pact with Europe that will benefit Europe for no tangible return for the UK

(g) proposing to abolish new cash ISAs that will benefit the financial services industry at the expense of customers

 

[Arakhor]

Starmer has been useless, but it wasn't Labour who decided to tear away those UK OAPs' right to live in Spain. Any freedom of movement arrangement (however limited) will have to be bilateral, rather than the "benefits for us and not for them" silliness that was being imagined for the sunlit uplands of Brexitania.

 

[EnglishEdward]

The EUs famous freedom of movement was for people seeking work in other EU countries.

It was not for OAPs seeking retirement. So those OAP rights were not lost by voting Leave.

An agreement that enables EU nationals to come to the UK and work while doing
nothing for the UK elderly living abroad is a benefit for the EU and not for the UK.

 

[Senethro]

The EUs famous freedom of movement was for people seeking work in other EU countries.

It was not for OAPs seeking retirement. So those OAP rights were not lost by voting Leave.

An agreement that enables EU nationals to come to the UK and work while doing
nothing for the UK elderly living abroad is a benefit for the EU and not for the UK.

So what? Why do those things have to be paired? And were the rights lost or weren't they?

 

[Arakhor]

An agreement that enables EU nationals to come to the UK and work while doing
nothing for the UK elderly living abroad is a benefit for the EU and not for the UK.

So these people are supposedly living and working in the UK, whilst providing no financial or material gain for people in the UK? Perhaps you might want to rethink that statement.

 

[EnglishEdward]

So what? Why do those things have to be paired? And were the rights lost or weren't they?

As UK pensioners without relatives in other EU countries did not have the right
to retire to those EU countries, they could not lose the rights they did not have.

It is quite logical to pair things in negotiations.

So these people are supposedly living and working in the UK, whilst providing no financial or material gain for people in the UK? Perhaps you might want to rethink that statement.

I am not sure what the point of your questions are.

They certainly do not follow from anything I have just typed.

Nevertheless I will address that line.

I have never argued that EU nationals working in the UK do not contribute.

The arrival of more EU nationals in the UK will further drive up competition for housing and prices and for jobs.
There may be resultant benefits to landlords and penny pinching employers etc, but that does mean
that there is any net benefit to the UK population as a whole? And even if it could be established that
there was net benefit, why would it be better to have such migrants from the EU than from other places?

There is evidence that net migration drives up GDP but it is GDP/capita that impacts living standards.

I watched Keir Starmer as shadow Brexit secretary with his Labour negotiation and second referendum line.
I have suspected since then that Keir Starmer is more pro EU rather than pro UK and is very willing to do
the EU's bidding and that it is only the presence of Reform at his back that now slows his ingratiating down.

 

[Senethro]

As UK pensioners without relatives in other EU countries did not have the right
to retire to those EU countries, they could not lose the rights they did not have.

It is quite logical to pair things in negotiations.

It could be logical to pair those things but you have not presented a reason to do so.

And if they did indeed not lose anything, why do they need to get something back?

 

[Ajidica]

I don't know why, but my brain replaces every Mega Tsunami post with this.

 

[Arwon]

It's a pretty neat window into the mindset behind the drain-circling spiral of Misery Island

 

[Cloud_Strife]

It's a pretty neat window into the mindset behind the drain-circling spiral of Misery Island

The social contract is dying, broken institutions the strong prey on the weak and it's impossible to better your life but according some on this forum the real problem is immigrants, trans people, those that support green attempts, people on benefits, Muslims and ethnic minorities oh and leftists

Targetting these groups won't make anyone's life any better off, it's just populist bigotry

 

[Arakhor]

And now Reform get to run a bunch of county councils, where their budgets are limited and their rights and responsibilities are strictly defined in law.

Given that some of the first things they've been wittering about are DOGE-like reviews of council finances, legal battles to force asylum seekers into tents (never mind that hotel owners might want to house some as guaranteed income) and claiming that SEND conditions (Special Educational Needs & Disability) are over-diagnosed, I think that this meteoric rise in popularity will soon be rudely tested.