If you are doing first strike, i.e. starting a nuclear war, then yes, it's relatively easy to destroy missiles you've located.
Otherwise, intercepting ballistic missiles after launch is a big problem.
Besides, "tiny island" is larger than Portugal.
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Otherwise, intercepting ballistic missiles after launch is a big problem.
Besides, "tiny island" is larger than Portugal.
Verbose
Deity
Russia just transferred six landing craft otherwise not part of its Baltic Navy up here – five seem to be Ropuchas, one an even larger Ivan Gren. That's at least 2000 troops + equipment lifting capacity in one go. The latest of them to enter the Baltic are getting a kind of unofficial Swedish airforce escort to – where they seem to be en route to – Kaliningrad. I think they will very much be kept tabs on.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ropucha-class_landing_ship
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Gren-class_landing_ship
Gelion
Retired Captain
According to wikipedia that particular ship returned to its original shipyard. Could be for refitting.
Joij21
🔥Hail Satan!🔥
Regardless this war is going to happen no matter what. God wills it, the heavenly host wills it, even Satan and all the demons in Hell wills it. It's beyond any mere mortals hands now.
Verbose
Deity
Even refitting is done for some purpose. What that is remains to be seen. But it's not as if anyone who can help it is going to take their eyes off of the Russian pieces at this point – given that it is Russian promising unspecified "military technical solutions" in the region.
Verbose
Deity
Look at a map of the Baltic sometime...
What I'm supposed to be missing there?
What's interesting is that it's always Sweden who is particularly agitated about any Russian movement in the area. Not Finland, not Norway or Baltic States.
How is the hunt for ghost Russian submarines going, by the way? Caught anything?
EnglishEdward
Deity
I think that it offends the traditional Swedish fetish of neutrality.
Which they violated by the way during WW2.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transit_of_German_troops_through_Finland_and_Sweden
Verbose
Deity
The entire strategic situation in the Baltic between Russia and NATO for starters.
And yes, Sweden is peculiar in this respect – because all Swedish strategic calculations hinge on the Baltic. The Finns have a border almost as long as all the rest of the current NATO border with Russsia. They have concerns about the Baltic, but they are secondary due to that land-border. (And whether they concede this officially or not, they look to Sweden to keep up the naval end of things rather more.)
The Norwegians have no dog in the hunt as far as the Baltic is concerned. They are not on the Baltic. And while the Danes are, it's sorta kinda barely. They are exposed as far as Bornholm in the south of it is concerned, but the Danes have pretty much given up on doing anything useful in the Baltic in this regard, they focus on the North Sea and the Norway-Iceland-Greenland gap.
So in naval strategic terms, it leaves the Germans, the Poles and, yes, the Swedes, of which the Swedes, by far, has massively the most coastline. Read a fudging' map...
And I can tell you haven't looked at that bath-tub of a sea in anything strategic terms similar to what the countries around it not-Russia might.
Verbose
Deity
No where near the extent to which the British were allowed to train an army in Sweden, operate radar installations, land planes etc.
And that is why the Russians have never considered Sweden anything but a British ally regardless.
Except now it is apparently a New Dawn in the UK, and sidling up to Russia feels good because Europe is such an awful place?
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EnglishEdward
Deity
Fascinating. Do you have a link?
My joke that Russia is probably going to invade Sweden with those 6 ships made you think I haven't seen the map?
Just trying to understand the logic here.
Is it at all realistic to expect Russia to move against Sweden? (or Norway or similar). Aren't they at worst only going to be involved in lands (in that area of Europe) that still have a historic (by which I mean not formed there after ww2) russian minority? So the baltic smaller state triplet (don't know about Finland, I suppose the was some population exchange there?)
Everybody needs external threat. You would be concerned about Russian invasion too, if you didn't have Turkey already.
Sweden is a rich country, though, so one would expect them to have less need of threats that seem unreal.
Besides, this isn't the 30 years war. Sweden geopolitically must be very minor and out of the way.
Rich countries need external threat even more. Poor ones have enough real concerns to worry about.
Verbose
Deity
One of the headlines in my Stockholm morning paper was "Our preparedness may become Russian propaganda".
And sure enough, and it was expected even. Probably won't change any minds either way about things.
The thing with Russia over this is the recurrent double-bind situation it sets up – either Russia will be cross if there is no response, for not being "taken seriously", or it will be livid over someone actually taking their crap seriously and responding (including cries of "Russophobia"). They just barely leave a tiny wedge of "everyone to do exactly what we wan't, and maybe we won't throw a wobbler" – and there aren't that many takers for it, since it is so obviously limiting.
And sure enough, and it was expected even. Probably won't change any minds either way about things.
The thing with Russia over this is the recurrent double-bind situation it sets up – either Russia will be cross if there is no response, for not being "taken seriously", or it will be livid over someone actually taking their crap seriously and responding (including cries of "Russophobia"). They just barely leave a tiny wedge of "everyone to do exactly what we wan't, and maybe we won't throw a wobbler" – and there aren't that many takers for it, since it is so obviously limiting.
I am not defending Russia, but I am just not seeing how Sweden of all places would have to feel threatened.
What point would a russian invasion of Sweden possibly serve? It'd be entirely irrational and thus can't happen.
If you wanted to help fellow norsemen, you could have actually taken part in the ruinous second Schleswig-Holstein war
Besides, Fins and the microstate baltics afaik aren't even norsemen
Verbose
Deity
No, it is totally unrealistic to assume any kind of move by Russia exclusively against Sweden.
The Swedish concern is over what happens in the Baltic IF Russia decides its conflict with NATO (and Russia already regards itself as in conflict with NATO) needs to involve precisely some kind of "military technical" aspects. Because IF Russia is going to have a conflict with NATO play out also in the Baltic, that involves also direct military means (even if intended to be limited), THEN the last concern of Russia is going to be something like Swedish sovereignty and territorial integrity. And given the geography of the southern Baltic, that leaves Sweden directly exposed. Just look at a map of what's there.
Someone can argue that in the case Russia ends up of that kind of direct conflict with NATO like that, it certainly will try to fight it with one arm behind its back out of nothing more than its deep respect and deference to Swedish sovereignty... But I will probably laugh...
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