Poll Coming. According to a recent Time magazine article (and me), there appear to be three roads left.
Option 1) Hilary Clinton loses Indiana, and bows out of the election. Both canidates are on roughly equal poll voting. Obama has a the huge money advantage, and Chicagoland "home court". Hillary has Evan Bayh and Working Class Whites. A loss here by Hillary would make it nearly impossible for her to continue, according to her advisors.
Option 2) Party officals work out a deal after July 3rd (last states vote). Dean, Pelosi and Reid put the hammer down on superdelegates to make a call before the Denver Convention..possibilty by cutting back on fundraising help.
Option 3) Races goes into Denver unsettled. Great for television ratings. Election decided by backroom dealings.
What do you think is the most likely? Do not go OT into who is going to win the general. Pick a choice, and defend it.
Personally, I handicap it as
Option 1-40% likely. 30% of Indiana is in the Chicago media market (Obama's home turf). He has a huge money advantage, and can afford to blanket the state in ads. He also doesn't have a 21 point poll gap to make up. Is very possible that Obama overcomes the working class white gap, and rides Indy and Northwest Indiana to a victory. This also happens around the same time that Obama crushes Hillary in North Carolina...that 'mo would make it very hard to justify having Hillary in the race.
Option 2-50% likely. People who are close to the DNC have been telling me that the idea of number 3 happening keeps leadership awake at night, and they are prepared to do some awfully hardball things to prevent it from happening. Nobody wants this to go to the convention besides news outlets and republicans.
Option 3-10% likely. Its a nightmare scenario, but DNC leadership is also kinda stupid, so anything is possible. Hillary would likely be the canidate if this happens.
Option 1) Hilary Clinton loses Indiana, and bows out of the election. Both canidates are on roughly equal poll voting. Obama has a the huge money advantage, and Chicagoland "home court". Hillary has Evan Bayh and Working Class Whites. A loss here by Hillary would make it nearly impossible for her to continue, according to her advisors.
Option 2) Party officals work out a deal after July 3rd (last states vote). Dean, Pelosi and Reid put the hammer down on superdelegates to make a call before the Denver Convention..possibilty by cutting back on fundraising help.
Option 3) Races goes into Denver unsettled. Great for television ratings. Election decided by backroom dealings.
What do you think is the most likely? Do not go OT into who is going to win the general. Pick a choice, and defend it.
Personally, I handicap it as
Option 1-40% likely. 30% of Indiana is in the Chicago media market (Obama's home turf). He has a huge money advantage, and can afford to blanket the state in ads. He also doesn't have a 21 point poll gap to make up. Is very possible that Obama overcomes the working class white gap, and rides Indy and Northwest Indiana to a victory. This also happens around the same time that Obama crushes Hillary in North Carolina...that 'mo would make it very hard to justify having Hillary in the race.
Option 2-50% likely. People who are close to the DNC have been telling me that the idea of number 3 happening keeps leadership awake at night, and they are prepared to do some awfully hardball things to prevent it from happening. Nobody wants this to go to the convention besides news outlets and republicans.
Option 3-10% likely. Its a nightmare scenario, but DNC leadership is also kinda stupid, so anything is possible. Hillary would likely be the canidate if this happens.
) and Obama wins, but McCain dominates him in the general because of Hillary's stupidity.
