What if: Unified Western/Central Europe

From what I remember the Byzantines kicked Bulgarian ass eventually, but then fell apart for various reasons I'm not quite clear about.

After the death of Basil II (apparently called Bulghar Slayer) he left no heirs due to his paranoia and there was some bickering and infighting, and his successor was underwhelming and an alcoholic who didn't do much of anything so they gave him the boot after a bit. The Byzantines became preoccupied with internal affairs and mostly ignored the East. When Sultan Alparslan and Emperor Romanas IV were on the throne something inconvenient called Manzikert happened, it was all downhill from there.

(Insert this space for where Dachs tells me I'm wrong about something and then writes an essay to elaborate)
 
Charlemagne was focusing on the East, specifically Northeast, but that was abandoned when his descendants began fighting among themselves. He also began the temporal power of the Popes by his donation of what became the Papal States. I foresee the Carolingian focus being originally on German expansion, before targetting the Iberians and maybe the Anglo-Saxons.

As to the East, bashing up against the Carolingian Empire would likely lead to the creation of states by the Slavs and other migratory groups at an early time than occurred historically. With no room to expand, they'll consolidate their power in a smaller area.

Less room, how come? Cause of the uninterrupted expansion to the north-east?
 
After the death of Basil II (apparently called Bulghar Slayer) he left no heirs due to his paranoia and there was some bickering and infighting, and his successor was underwhelming and an alcoholic who didn't do much of anything so they gave him the boot after a bit. The Byzantines became preoccupied with internal affairs and mostly ignored the East. When Sultan Alparslan and Emperor Romanas IV were on the throne something inconvenient called Manzikert happened, it was all downhill from there.

(Insert this space for where Dachs tells me I'm wrong about something and then writes an essay to elaborate)

your completely right.
 
Less room, how come? Cause of the uninterrupted expansion to the north-east?
When nomadic or refugee groups bash up against a border of some kind, whether it be the ocean, a desert, or a state powerful enough to keep them out, they tend to settle where they are and consolidate their position. With less room for the Slavic and other groups to expand by smacking into a unified, strong Carolingian Empire, they'd form states on its outskirts. Either that or be allowed to migrate into the Empire, but the Carolingians might be wary of that, considering they were directly descended from similar migrants who overthrew Rome.
 
Well, if we accept the premise that a united Frankish Empire is better at withstanding the vikings then Rollo is never able to take control of Normandy. No Normandy means no William the Conquer and no conquest of England which quickly leads us to an ever expanding set of consequences that radically alters the course history. Of course the Normans greatly altered the affair in the Mediterranean as well so that's another ever expanding set of consequences.
 
Well, if we accept the premise that a united Frankish Empire is better at withstanding the vikings then Rollo is never able to take control of Normandy. No Normandy means no William the Conquer and no conquest of England which quickly leads us to an ever expanding set of consequences that radically alters the course history. Of course the Normans greatly altered the affair in the Mediterranean as well so that's another ever expanding set of consequences.
Which is basically why LightSpectra complained about the Butterfly Effect on the last page. But, if we keep the speculation confined to certain areas, counter-factuals like this can be interesting. It's when we start talking about overseas colonies and such that they get ridiculous.
 
Why is the dichotomy "Carolingian Empire united and relatively centralized and powerful" on the one hand and "collapse into civil war and eventual territorial division" on the other? It's exceedingly improbable that the Carolingian state could keep expanding and conquering and so forth indefinitely, and the Wends, proto-Poles, Moravians, etc. weren't exactly pushovers. Dynastically, there's basically zero chance that the Franks can keep a perfect streak up, and they've got virtually no civilian or military bureaucracy to fall back on in the event of a stupid heir (or no heir!). I can't see the state expanding or integrating successfully (remember, the East-West Francia division didn't fall out of the sky; as soon as you get further west and south than the Rhine Valley you simply don't see many Germanic dudes) for much longer than a century at the outside, if the Frankish succession laws are theoretically dumped and nobody manages to win a civil war anyway. (Because large, insufficiently integrated empires can collapse into little tiny pieces even without stupid ways of dividing the property of dead men. True story.) Anyway, the best way for this monstrosity to survive is to a) stop expanding and b) start decentralizing, whether by accident or design. Maybe after a few centuries of that, the foundations will be solid enough for the state to actually do something. (And, when it does, it'll probably collapse anyway. ;))
After the death of Basil II (apparently called Bulghar Slayer) he left no heirs due to his paranoia and there was some bickering and infighting, and his successor was underwhelming and an alcoholic who didn't do much of anything so they gave him the boot after a bit. The Byzantines became preoccupied with internal affairs and mostly ignored the East. When Sultan Alparslan and Emperor Romanas IV were on the throne something inconvenient called Manzikert happened, it was all downhill from there.

(Insert this space for where Dachs tells me I'm wrong about something and then writes an essay to elaborate)
Pretty drastic oversimplification, but more or less right. Mostly. (I wasn't aware Romanos III Argyros was an alcoholic. That wasn't his chief problem, anyway, much less the empire's. The chief problem was the succession problem you mentioned and that damnable Zoe.) Though it should be said that, among the many things they did, the Byzantines emphatically did not ignore the East. Territory was actually conquered in the Caucasus for a few decades after Basil's death. The big problem that the empire had, actually, was that its leaders did too much in the East, and in too short-sighted a fashion. Basil had left a ring of loyal tributary powers from Syria to the Caucasus, both Christian and Muslim. His successors, seeking cheap victories (part of a legitimacy problem; they had to appear as though they were commanding the army as Basil had, but none of the emperors were competent generals, since if Zoe had married a competent general he probably wouldn't have let her blow half the treasury on clothing, perfume, the 11th-century version of Botox - I am not making this up, she supposedly had no facial wrinkles even when she died - and "eunuchs"...anyway, they had to pick targets that were easy to beat, and the only ones of these were the tributaries that previously had been an invaluable force multiplier for the Byzantine army), attacked these tributaries and paved the way for the Seljuqs and Turkmen to swarm in and start raiding, beginning in the 1040s. Defenses were further weakened by extraordinarily short-sighted economies and cost-cutting measures, enacted in large part because the Crappy Emperors Who Married Zoe weren't competent enough to defend themselves from rebellion, so if you're going to have to downsize a part of the military, might as well make it the part that's most dangerous, right? The guys who are well-trained and battle-hardened from fighting on the Armenian frontier? Which is where the Turkmen would decide to start raiding in the next few decades? Aaaarghhhhhh...

It's also worth noting that Manzikert itself was comparatively unimportant. No matter what happened there, Romanos IV would have been stabbed in the back anyway, and in all other respects the engagement was more of a skirmish than anything else. The army itself suffered virtually no losses, and Alp Arslan was a dude who was rightly uninterested in worthless mountain territory when he could play for Egypt instead, so he demanded little and let Romanos go. What screwed the pooch was the series of civil wars in the 1070s - which, it must be said, probably would have occurred no matter what had happened at Manzikert - that simultaneously ruined the Byzantine army and brought Turkmen into Anatolia, ostensibly fighting for one side against the other and conveniently electing not to leave when their job was done. (The same thing brought the Ottomans into Europe, actually - a position that they sure as hell wouldn't have been in, had not the Kantakouzenos-Palaiologos civil wars not kicked off. I am convinced that Alexios Apokaukos, who started those wars, was reincarnated in the form of Al Davis, with the Turks played by the New England Patriots.) And, of course, we should give honorable mention to Alexios I Komnenos, who is best known for saving the empire from certain doom and for handling the Crusaders without much damage (and rightly so), but who, when he had Anatolia in his grasp, screwed up and decided to mess around with Syria and Cilicia instead. His son Ioannes II was rather unfortunate in his choice of targets, as well, and had the wrong mind-set anyway. (Birkenmeier in his book on the army of the Komnenoi argues that Ioannes campaigned as a preclusive defense, not to attack, and in so doing kept the valuable provinces of the empire untouched while the Turks wasted their energies counterattacking useless forts. SO WHY THE HELL DIDN'T HE ATTACK TO GAIN TERRITORY? YOU HAVE ZERO STRATEGIC DEPTH AND VIABLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR EXPANSION AND PLAY THE PRECLUSIVE-DEFENSE GAME? IF YOU ARE DOWN BY FIVE WITH ONE MINUTE LEFT IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, AT FOURTH-AND-2 ON YOUR OWN THIRTY YARD LINE, YOU DON'T FRIGGIN PUNT, IDIOT! Okay, I'm done.)
 
I know that there's a back-lash and it is in fashion to reduce the importance of Mantzikert, but, while militarily it might not have been as important, it was for another reason: Romanos Diogenes was chosen emperor as a strong man to protect empire from the Turks. Mantzikert compromitated him, and gave his enemies excuse and opportunity to attack him. There might have been civil wars nevertheless, but certainly it wouldn't look as bad as it was.
 
Someone mentioned bringing their attention to the Anglo-Saxons, but I think we can fairly say that consolidation would limit expansion, and it would be this /lack/ of expansion that would probably be the most notable change in history. Assuming theres a strong degree of centralization, William the Bastard remains just that, and Harold Godwinson becomes king of 'England' effectively altering the nature of the English Nation forever.
 
Someone mentioned bringing their attention to the Anglo-Saxons, but I think we can fairly say that consolidation would limit expansion, and it would be this /lack/ of expansion that would probably be the most notable change in history. Assuming theres a strong degree of centralization, William the Bastard remains just that, and Harold Godwinson becomes king of 'England' effectively altering the nature of the English Nation forever.
Assuming a strong degree of centralisation, Rollo doesn't get given control of Normandy to begin with, so there's no William the Bastard. I foresee the Carolingians turning their attention to the Anglo-Saxons only for the same reason as the Romans turned their attention to Britain; seeking glory for political reasons. I don't foresee any serious attempts to pacify the Isles, just like I don't see any serious attempts to take all of Iberia or Italy. A truly vigorous Emperor might do it, but there's always the risk that his conquests will be abandoned by his successors, much like Hadrian abandoned Trajan's hard-won territory in Armenia and Parthia overnight because it suited his politics.
 
Assuming a strong degree of centralisation, Rollo doesn't get given control of Normandy to begin with, so there's no William the Bastard.
I'm not going to speculate into the potential ahistorical amorous whims of Herleva, but I'm willing to wager William can still be a bastard, Franks or no Franks. :p

I foresee the Carolingians turning their attention to the Anglo-Saxons only for the same reason as the Romans turned their attention to Britain; seeking glory for political reasons. I don't foresee any serious attempts to pacify the Isles, just like I don't see any serious attempts to take all of Iberia or Italy.
I don't see ANY serious attempts to even turn their attention to Britain during this period, which is why I think this would be a tremendous effect. Essentially, the English remain essentially Germanic, which can have innumerable political and cultural changes. An England that looks more towards the North Sea then to Europe? It's possible. Not to mention, without the changes, political and military that the Normans brought to Britain, English expansion into Ireland and Scotland during the medieval period remain unlikely.
 
I know that there's a back-lash and it is in fashion to reduce the importance of Mantzikert, but, while militarily it might not have been as important, it was for another reason: Romanos Diogenes was chosen emperor as a strong man to protect empire from the Turks. Mantzikert compromitated him, and gave his enemies excuse and opportunity to attack him. There might have been civil wars nevertheless, but certainly it wouldn't look as bad as it was.
Manzikert didn't compromise him any more than the previous three years of failure had.
I'm not going to speculate into the potential ahistorical amorous whims of Herleva, but I'm willing to wager William can still be a bastard, Franks or no Franks. :p
Assuming William is even born with a PoD that comes two centuries before his father (assuming his father was born too!) had a certain twinkle in his eye...maybe William (or his father or grandfather) would've been born female. Or would not have survived to have further children.
 
I'm not going to speculate into the potential ahistorical amorous whims of Herleva, but I'm willing to wager William can still be a bastard, Franks or no Franks. :p
I'm willing to wager he won't exist. Dachs is pretty correct with this.

Assuming William is even born with a PoD that comes two centuries before his father (assuming his father was born too!) had a certain twinkle in his eye...maybe William (or his father or grandfather) would've been born female. Or would not have survived to have further children.
There's no reason to believe that William would even exist in this timeline. A Frankish Empire is unlikely to produce the exact same relations with the Normans as happened in OTL, right down to the birth of children 200 years later.

I don't see ANY serious attempts to even turn their attention to Britain during this period, which is why I think this would be a tremendous effect. Essentially, the English remain essentially Germanic, which can have innumerable political and cultural changes. An England that looks more towards the North Sea then to Europe? It's possible. Not to mention, without the changes, political and military that the Normans brought to Britain, English expansion into Ireland and Scotland during the medieval period remain unlikely.
Who said the attempt would be serious? Rome originally attacked Britain largely for punitive reasons, and left when they were done. Later, they stuck around mostly because it was easier than sending troops across all the time, and because certain Emperors - Claudius is the most blatant - needed military victories over weak opponents that they could point to as a sign of their military prowess. The only serious attempt to conquer all Britain I can think of was Agricola, and his success and glory is likely the reason Domitian had him removed; he was becoming a threat due to his military skill, the loyalty of his troops, and the glory his actions were heaping upon himself.

I see something similar happening with the Carolingians. Some Angles launch a raid, or maybe some Danes do so. The point is, the raid comes from Britain. A punitive expedition is launched, which succeeds. Britain is forgotten until another raid comes, which leads to a new punitive expedition. Eventually, some bright spark decides that it's easier to just establish a garrison in a major centre, like London. Later, an Emperor or general seeking personal glory wages war on the inhabitants of Britain.

This could eventually lead to a large Frankish presence in Britain. It certainly retards the unification of England under Anglo-Saxon rulers, since they'll continue to fight amongst themselves as they also face the Danes, the Irish, the Scots, and by far the most powerful force in the area under the Carolingians. In such an environment you'd have to back the Carolingians as the eventual victors, though events on the mainland can always result in them pulling out, much as Hadrian abandoned Trajan's conquests because he needed those troops to ward off any potential coups.

No-one's saying the effect on Britain wouldn't be huge. But you're looking at the butterfly, when it's the cocoon that's changed. No weak France, no Rollo being given Normandy, no Norman interference in Anglo-Saxon politics, no William the Bastard, no Norman England, no Harold Godwinson to begin with. The Carolingians, assuming their empire survives - I believe I stated the possibilties of that on the first page, and Dachs has done so as well - will sooner or later intervene in British politics themselves, subtly or forcefully altering the events that lead to the rise of Godwinson anyway.
 
Manzikert didn't compromise him any more than the previous three years of failure had.

Being captured by the enemy and forced to resign from some territory is surely less dignified than just not being able to stop turkmen raids.
 
I believe Alp Arslan actually tried to vassalize him, and forced him to agree to pay tribute, and to come when he was called to assist in Alp Arslan's war, and Romanos agreed and when he went back to Constantinople was overthrown by angered nobles outraged that he would agree to such a thing.
 
Being captured by the enemy and forced to resign from some territory is surely less dignified than just not being able to stop turkmen raids.
Yeah, so? His opponents were already putting a plan in train to remove him before the battle. Hence Tarchaneiotes' disappearance, and hence Romanos' attempt to weaken the conspiracy while the Emperor was out on campaign, by bringing Andronikos Doukas with him as a hostage. Win, lose, or draw, Tarchaneiotes had already pulled out for Melitene, so there would clearly be a confrontation after the battle.
I believe Alp Arslan actually tried to vassalize him, and forced him to agree to pay tribute, and to come when he was called to assist in Alp Arslan's war, and Romanos agreed and when he went back to Constantinople was overthrown by angered nobles outraged that he would agree to such a thing.
The stories about this vary; vassalizing sounds like a gross exaggeration. From what I understand, Romanos promised the Van fortresses, an annualized nominal tribute, an alliance, and a cash indemnity; he apparently even got troops from the Sultan in exchange. He was overthrown long before he reached the capital; the Kaisar, Ioannes Doukas, proclaimed his kinsman Michael sole emperor and stashed Romanos' wife Eudokia in a nunnery while the emperor himself was still in Paphlagonia. Another Doukas, Konstantinos, brought up an army, augmented by a force of Norman mercenaries, defeated Romanos' army near Amaseia, and then pursued him to Cilicia, where he was captured, briefly imprisoned, and then blinded so sloppily that he died of his wounds.

It's important to note that the revolution wasn't due to the terms of Manzikert; tribute and alliance were usual Byzantine methods for dealing with foreigners, so as to deflect them from their own territory. The prebattle actions of Romanos' subordinates, including the magistros Tarchaneiotes, and the well-known treachery of Andronikos Doukas indicate that there was already something going on; Roussell de Bailleul's army had attacked Chliat before the battle as well, but had been driven off suspiciously easily by Alp Arslan. (This may have been innocuous, it may not have; Roussell was clearly an able military leader, though, and nearly managed to carve out a Norman kingdom in Armenia after the civil wars started. His army probably would not have been beaten off so easily under normal circumstances.) The battle was instead more of a convenient justification for the Doukades' actions.
 
No-one's saying the effect on Britain wouldn't be huge. But you're looking at the butterfly, when it's the cocoon that's changed. No weak France, no Rollo being given Normandy, no Norman interference in Anglo-Saxon politics, no William the Bastard, no Norman England, no Harold Godwinson to begin with. The Carolingians, assuming their empire survives - I believe I stated the possibilties of that on the first page, and Dachs has done so as well - will sooner or later intervene in British politics themselves, subtly or forcefully altering the events that lead to the rise of Godwinson anyway.
And hence the reason why these threads are rarely productive. The trouble of history is always in the details, and the problem of Althistory is we have no details. Essentially this argument boils down to 'Would, prior to 1066, a unified Frankish Empire launch an invasion of Britain' You say yes they would, I say no they wouldn't, and there is no outside force (like say, facts, perhaps) that either of us can call upon to settle the matter.
 
And hence the reason why these threads are rarely productive. The trouble of history is always in the details, and the problem of Althistory is we have no details. Essentially this argument boils down to 'Would, prior to 1066, a unified Frankish Empire launch an invasion of Britain' You say yes they would, I say no they wouldn't, and there is no outside force (like say, facts, perhaps) that either of us can call upon to settle the matter.
They're productive to a point - though this one isn't really, since there's no way the Carolingians would remain unified - but that point is only a very short period after the PoD.
 
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