What will the Middle East be like in 30 years?

[Desmond Hawkins]

Iran: Get nuclear power, eventually getting nuclear bombs. Continued growth in power. Increased links between other regimes with anti-American agendas.

Barring a major confrontation with the west before than, Iran will likely be more secular and less hostile (but then, like most international issues, climate change has the potential to ruin everything and polarise nations).

 

[Ramius75]

Im thinking of a more rosy picture of the middle east.

Israel will still be around. a palestinian state will appear and with Palestinian signing a peace accord with Israel with no more settlement built and many more returned. The other Arab countries will begin signing their side of truce and peace agreement. (The Arabs know that their oil will ran out sooner or later, hence their influence can only get lesser with time, not more. Today or maybe 10 years later, they will be the most influential as the oil peaked and resources running out. Hence, whatever they are going to do, this will be the time. After that, they will have to accept their fate)

Iran will acquire Nuclear weapons in a few years time. The USA and Israel might want to attack it, but doing that will unsettle the whole region again as Iraq is no more hence there is no containment of Iran's influence. But leaving it alone and allow the secular movement to continue, Iran might be the first Middle East country to renounce Islam as a state religion (but thats maybe when cows come home)

Saudi Arabia will still maintain as a Monarchy with them investing all the oil money into more equities and buying over other countries. The people of Saudi Arabia will still remain poor as ever living on the graces of the Monarch by spending their moneys on the economy, but without oil or other local investment, the country could no prosper. The agriculture movement might failed without state subsidise. If other countries can produce cheaper food while globolization.

Iraq maybe just beginning to recover after 10 years of civil war. catching up in producing oil at extreme price(inflation) they might be able to catch up the development of the region. USA should be still the principle "protector" (unless they decided to withdraw and lose their influence) and started to Invest into Iraq's oil production facilities finally reaping profits from it. The economy will grow once again.

 

[Neonanocyborgasm]

The disproportionate influence of Middle East politics will come to an end when fusion power is invented, which may happen sometime over the next 30 years. This dream may be realized sooner with the completion of ITER in Cadarache, France.

Once petroleum ceases to be an important commodity, those nations in the ME that depend on its income will find their economies collapsing, while those that do not will find themselves in a better position. Meanwhile, nuclear armed Iran will come to resent its sudden subordination and possibly launch a military strike against a richer neighbor.

 

[GenMarshall]

The Middle East will still be a mess 30 years later. Or becomes the worlds biggest sheet of Glass .

 

[Ramius75]

The disproportionate influence of Middle East politics will come to an end when fusion power is invented, which may happen sometime over the next 30 years. This dream may be realized sooner with the completion of ITER in Cadarache, France.

Once petroleum ceases to be an important commodity, those nations in the ME that depend on its income will find their economies collapsing, while those that do not will find themselves in a better position. Meanwhile, nuclear armed Iran will come to resent its sudden subordination and possibly launch a military strike against a richer neighbor.

Planes,cars,ships Still need oil and its still the most compact form of energy yet. Not to mention other products like plastic which is also cheaper to make from oil. Therefore, i dont forseen other form of energy replacing oil, unless the industry that uses them start reducing the dependent on fuel. There could be electrical cars and nuclear power ship. But what about the planes ?

 

[Tee Kay]

Call me a pessimist, but I would think the Middle East would be worse than it is now. Israel would still be around, kept alive by US/EU aid. The last of Saudi oil would be savagely fought over. Once that runs out, the Middle East could very well revert back to Third World status, since money from oil was wasted on personal wealth/military. In the north (ie Syria, Iraq, Iran, Turkey etc) there would be civil war complicated by US/EU intervention.

 

[amadeus]

With any luck, poor.

It all honestly depends on what policies we in the U.S. take.

 

[Ramius75]

With any luck, poor.

It all honestly depends on what policies we in the U.S. take.

So what u mean is, it will get poorer if the USA do something about it ?? Or poorer if she dont ?

I think personally, if the Middle east is without any USA intervention. It should prosper.

If u think otherwise. In what way could the USA contributed to the economy of the middle east and what will she invest in ? And what USA could do that other countries like EU, China and India cant ?

 

[Agarwaen]

China will have more to say about ME than today.

 

[amadeus]

So what u mean is, it will get poorer if the USA do something about it ?? Or poorer if she dont ?

I think personally, if the Middle east is without any USA intervention. It should prosper.

If u think otherwise. In what way could the USA contributed to the economy of the middle east and what will she invest in ? And what USA could do that other countries like EU, China and India cant ?

My two statements were meant to be read individually; I thought that was understood when I separated the statements.

For the first, I mean that I hope that the price of oil drops to a level where it is unprofitable for Arab/Mideastern countries to produce it. More than anything, the world's petrodollars are the number one source of money to supply to terrorists, whether it is from the Iranian government, the Saudi government, the Syrian government, the Sudanese government, etc.

For the second, I can't predict what the Mideast as a whole will be like in 30 years, because that depends largely on the decision the U.S. voting public makes. The farther to the left the next administration is, the worse the situation is going to get, because a leftist is going to allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, possibly even use them, with little or no consequences or retaliatory action.

 

[Winner]

It won't change much. Either it remains about the same as now, or it will be destroyed in a nuclear exchange between Israel and Iran (and possibly Saudi Arabia, Syria and Egypt).

Oil reserves will be depleted, but the Western world will switch to other sources of energy, so it won't be so bad as was predicted in the early 21st century. China and India, on the other hand, will face serious problems, because they won't have enough time to switch to more expensive alternate sources of energy.

Islamism will become the ruling ideology in many ME countries including Lebanon, Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia.

Iraq will no longer exist, as it will be destroyed in a civil ware that will rage for several years and kill millions of people. UN won't be able to stop it, as usual, and Americans will run off that mess.

 

[Neonanocyborgasm]

Planes,cars,ships Still need oil and its still the most compact form of energy yet. Not to mention other products like plastic which is also cheaper to make from oil. Therefore, i dont forseen other form of energy replacing oil, unless the industry that uses them start reducing the dependent on fuel. There could be electrical cars and nuclear power ship. But what about the planes ?

I don't think you understand the importance of petroleum today. Petroleum isn't just used to make stuff, it's the basis of the industrial economy. It is the primary source of energy that powers everything. There are nuclear and hydroelectric power plants but they represent an insignificant portion of the total world energy generation, and they are comparatively more expensive than oil. It is the #1 commodity right now because without it, the entire planet could not function. Once that position is lost, countries that export oil as a major product (such as Saudi Arabia) will lose their economic leverage. Yes, they'll still be able to sell oil as lubricant or jet fuel but that's an infinitessimally small amount of profit compared to being the top dog.

I believe that a new form of power generation, such as fusion, is inevitable because oil's supply is necessarily finite and its demand is always on the increase. There is and will be a drive to invent it because there will simply be no choice in the matter.

As for planes, I can only assume that planes in the future will be like the ones today, but even there, I could be wrong. There could be advances there that could render oil obsolete as well.

 

[Gr3yL3gion]

ME will become pawns for the superpowers at that time to wage their wars on.

Propably end up as a nuclear winter.

 

[warpus]

Everyone making predictions in this thread will be proven wrong.

 

[Xanikk999]

Honestly? I still see it as pretty much the same as now. Except without U.S involvmenet.

 

[aneeshm]

My bet would be on it being a sheet of glass.

 

[Xanikk999]

My bet would be on it being a sheet of glass.

If theres a nuclear war the whole ground would be glass.

:joking:

 

[Fugitive Sisyphus]

Everyone making predictions in this thread will be proven wrong.

A paradox

 

[Abaddon]

Nukes will never be used, oil will.