What would the response be to a rogue nuclear launch?

[ravensfire]

I started thinking about this while posting in another thread. I'm not worried about a large scale nuclear war. Without a major political change, neither Russia nor the US would launch.

So, here's my scenario for you to consider.

Time: Summer, 2009
Place: Iran
Event: The usual middle-east tensions are running hot, when a single missile with a nuclear warhead launchs from Iran towards Israel. It detonates over Syria, but very near the Israel border.
Response: Iran immediately sees major political upheavel as the launch is blamed on a rogue element within the government and military. The government claims it is "vigorously" investigating and arresting these elements.

Question:
1) How would government X respond?

Suggestions for X:
-- US w/ Democrat president
-- US w/ Republic president
-- Israel
-- EU
-- UN
-- Middle East nations

Something interesting, I think - how would governments respond to a nuclear launch that's blamed on a rogue group? Do the actions of the government immediately after the launch affect the response? What if the launch was from Israel? How would responses change then?

-- Ravensfire

 

[Winner]

There would be no time to investigate since Iran would be evaporated minutes after the launch.

 

[Fifty]

US backed Israel would pwn Iran, the UN would pass a resolution about something nobody cares about, the EU would sit around and try to look important, China would continue churning out math PhDs and using chopsticks, and India would continue to bask in the glory of the one true religion/philosophy, namely Hinduism. The rest of the world would continue being useless.

 

[Winner]

The problem with this scenario is that Israel and Iran don't have any "hot line". They don't talk with each other event in peace time.

 

[Elrohir]

Tehran would get very hot very fast.

 

[bhsup]

Let Iran off the hook only if they voluntarily nuke Tehran.

P.S. - The book was better.

 

[JerichoHill]

I'm gonna go with Winner's scenario

Isreal launches its nukes pre-emptively while the China, US, and Russia chat on the red-lines and send ambassadors to their weapon control facilities immediately so that they all know none of them is launching.

Perhaps rebels in Pakistan launch a capture nuke as well. Should be confined to the middle east.

 

[Italian Celtic]

China and Russia will destroy all middle eastern countries

 

[sourboy]

In this scenario? Israel launches immediately when seeing it headed their way, before it detonates innocently. Everyone else watches with horror.

 

[Tabasco Sauce]

Israel retaliates with a Nuclear attack that virtually destroys Iran.

Entire Muslim world completly breaks off any relations with Israel. (Whatever ones already had relations)

 

[Gelion]

This is the trouble with "rogue launches". When the dust is cleared no one would care if the launch was done by an idiot in the military or actually authorised by the government. There's too much at stake to just sit and watch that "accidental" missile approaching.

The same goes for the recent American "anti-nuclear missile" affair in Europe.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Isreal would launch one nuke in response. I dont see them launching say a dozen nuclear weapons. .... actually since they only are a tiny nation a single nuke would probably annihilate the country.

 

[JohnRM]

I started thinking about this while posting in another thread. I'm not worried about a large scale nuclear war. Without a major political change, neither Russia nor the US would launch.

So, here's my scenario for you to consider.

Time: Summer, 2009
Place: Iran
Event: The usual middle-east tensions are running hot, when a single missile with a nuclear warhead launchs from Iran towards Israel. It detonates over Syria, but very near the Israel border.
Response: Iran immediately sees major political upheavel as the launch is blamed on a rogue element within the government and military. The government claims it is "vigorously" investigating and arresting these elements.

Question:
1) How would government X respond?

Suggestions for X:
-- US w/ Democrat president
-- US w/ Republic president
-- Israel
-- EU
-- UN
-- Middle East nations

Something interesting, I think - how would governments respond to a nuclear launch that's blamed on a rogue group? Do the actions of the government immediately after the launch affect the response? What if the launch was from Israel? How would responses change then?

-- Ravensfire

US, Democrat/Republican President
The United States responds with humanitarian aid offers to Syria and any other nation affected by the blast (if there was any meaningful effect). The United States would assist in leading the international community to place sanctions and a physical blockade of Iran with added pressure to disarm its nuclear weapons. Military force of any kind would be used to eliminate the new threat.


Israel
If the State of Israel detected the launch of the missile, which it probably would, it would immediately launch a retaliatory strike on Iran to destroy its missile capability. If they do not possess such capabilities, then they would strongly urge the international community to do something about it before they are forced to.


EU
See US Democrat/Republican President. The EU would only commit forces alongside the United States.


UN
The UN would be forced to support the chosen path of the United States and the European Union.


Middle Eastern Nations
They would go apehorsehocky and demand that the United States, EU, UN, etc come save them, once more. Syria would be especially demanding in that regard.


Allowing nuclear weapons fall into the hands of a rogue group that then goes ahead and launches them is almost as bad as launching them yourself. Iran would be held responsible, regardless.

 

[El_Machinae]

I'd charge Israel a hefty sum for my judicious intervention with my orbital lasers.

 

[Winner]

This is the trouble with "rogue launches". When the dust is cleared no one would care if the launch was done by an idiot in the military or actually authorised by the government. There's too much at stake to just sit and watch that "accidental" missile approaching.

The same goes for the recent American "anti-nuclear missile" affair in Europe.

It's completely different.

In the situation you described, Russia would know there is a interceptor missile silo in Poland and that the missile is thus completely harmless. Furthermore, there is a hot line between Washington and Moscow, so it'd be very easy to just pick up a phone and ask, what's going on.

In the Middle East, things are a lot worse.

 

[Gelion]

It's completely different.

In the situation you described, Russia would know there is a interceptor missile silo in Poland and that the missile is thus completely harmless.

How exactly? Because some nice american general said so?

Furthermore, there is a hot line between Washington and Moscow, so it'd be very easy to just pick up a phone and ask, what's going on.

It takes a few minutes for a missile from Poland to reach Moscow. Even in an emergency I cannot get home and make a call in a few minutes. Hope you catch the drift.

In the Middle East, things are a lot worse.

Agreed with ya.

 

[Winner]

How exactly? Because some nice american general said so?

Jesus Christ, this paranoia is so crazy! Yeah, Americans would definitely be able to conceal their nukes as interceptor missiles, put them in Poland and then launch a surprise attack, which would end with utter annihilation of their country. How cunning!

Americans invited you to do inspections in their instalations, so stop pretending you're being misinformed. You can see it for yourselves, once these installations are built.

It takes a few minutes for a missile from Poland to reach Moscow. Even in an emergency I cannot get home and make a call in a few minutes. Hope you catch the drift.

No, I don't. There are much, much better ways how to launch a suprise attack. Ever heard about submarine launched missiles? The US could launch hundreds of them from the Barents Sea, there is simply no need why to build a site in Poland everybody knows about, place nukes there and try to keep it secret. It makes no sense, but of course, Russian paranoia doesn't operate with things like "logic" or "common sense". does it?

Agreed with ya.

At least something...

 

[Chris1111]

What will happen....

U.S. with any president- would give aid while everyone blames us for not acting on Iran(after wanting us to do nothing to begin with). We'll be spending billions of dollars helping ungrateful Syrians recover while they burn our flags and likenesses of the president.

Al Gore will also complain how the bomb caused the global warming doom time line to increase by 10 years.

 

[Gelion]

Jesus Christ, this paranoia is so crazy! Yeah, Americans would definitely be able to conceal their nukes as interceptor missiles, put them in Poland and then launch a surprise attack, which would end with utter annihilation of their country. How cunning!

Americans invited you to do inspections in their instalations, so stop pretending you're being misinformed. You can see it for yourselves, once these installations are built.

I have the same emotions. Frustration. US is developing a system that would allow for such attacks. Why? Because US territory would be protected by such interceptor bases, spy sattelites networks and radars that would allow for such a strike to be carried out without retaliation from the nation that was attacked. I think the plan is called "Joint Vision 2010". READ IT!!!! You can find it in open publication on the net.

No, I don't. There are much, much better ways how to launch a suprise attack. Ever heard about submarine launched missiles? The US could launch hundreds of them from the Barents Sea, there is simply no need why to build a site in Poland everybody knows about, place nukes there and try to keep it secret. It makes no sense, but of course, Russian paranoia doesn't operate with things like "logic" or "common sense". does it?

Explained above. Paranoia is not based on common sense that is right. You heard this joke? "Doctor where is your patient that was suffering from chase phobia? Don't know, last I heard he was stabbed and killed." Let us be stupid and improve useless military systems, just dont take it personal, ok?

At least something...

And then there was Kosovo. Dangerous trend I tell you.

 

[I'm Cleo!]

No matter which party controlled the White House, you'd have to occupy Iran at that point, at least temporarily; even if the Iranian government didn't consent, every country on Earth would help to enforce the request -- you just don't use nuclear weapons. The Security Council would vote to consider it a "threat to the peace" in a second. If a particularly hawkish Republican were the President, he might use it as an opportunity to invade and occupy Iran for America's perceived benefit, without the aid of other countries, but I think it would be difficult to exclude the other nations' contributions.

The Middle Eastern states would start freaking out and immediately invite all the countries' armies -- countries against whom they fund terrorist acts, at best indirectly -- to help defend them from the crazy Shiites with the bomb.

Who knows what would happen in Pakistan.

Cleo