When do you think Oil will become scare and when will it run out?

[Xanikk999]

I have no clue on this so dont get mad at me for my random estimate...

But il just guess possibly in 50-100 years oil will become much more scarce then it is now.

Hopefully by then we have much more effecient, cleaner alternative energies and fuels.

Im hoping for some expert analysis on this though, sorry for my lack-of-knowledge-post.

 

[MobBoss]

Roughly in about 500 years.

 

[Fifty]

It wont run out, but it will be inaccessible within 10 years. That's why I am saving up my SSI money to buy a van that runs of vegetable oil. I also plan on living on a sustainable farm with no need for oil, so I'm prepared.

 

[ShannonCT]

I have no clue on this so dont get mad at me for my random estimate...

But il just guess possibly in 50-100 years oil will become much more scarce then it is now.

Hopefully by then we have much more effecient, cleaner alternative energies and fuels.

Im hoping for some expert analysis on this though, sorry for my lack-of-knowledge-post.

Oil is already scarce. A good is scarce if not enough of it exists to satisfy everyone's desire for it, and therefore requires some price to allocate it. Oil has always been scarce. The price of oil is the best indicator of its relative scarcity, and the price has been going up a lot since 2002.

 

[MobBoss]

You guys voting 10-50 years are like the Al Gore koolaid drinkers that think global warming will destroy the planet in that time.

There are still craploads of untapped oil potential. And we are still finding new ones all the time. If you add in the fact that we are also pursueing methods of being more oil-efficient as well as seeking alternatives - its going to be a long, long, LONG, while until we run out of oil.

If ever.

@shannon. Oil is not scarce. And by your odd definition of what scares means...they every commodity bought and sold is 'scarce'. Ridiculous. Production of oil has been increasing over the years....not decreasing. What makes the price go up is more due to the instability of the countries that produce the oil, not the inability to find it.

 

[warpus]

We will never run out of oil.

But at some point we will start consuming more of the stuff than we can produce.. and that's when things will begin to go downhill.

 

[CartesianFart]

Im hoping for some expert analysis on this though, sorry for my lack-of-knowledge-post.

Good luck finding one.

 

[ShannonCT]

@shannon. Oil is not scarce.

Economically speaking, just about every good is scarce. I refer you to Wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarcity). If we're talking about when oil will become scarce enough so that it is no longer profitable to extract, that depends a lot on our rate of technological development. How fast can we get power plants and automobiles and jets that can use nuclear/hydro/solar/wind generated electricity? I think that we'll probably still be extracting oil in 100 years, but for much more limited purposes than today.

Edit: The big increases in the price of oil have a lot to do with increased demand from Asia. The price is going to continue to increase regardless of what happens in the Middle East, and eventually, it's going to be cheaper to heat your house with nuclear-generated electricity, and run your car on bio-fuels or electricity. I'm convinced that that day will come in the next 50 years.

 

[El_Machinae]

MobBoss, oil production has nothing to do with scarcity. We'll agree that there's a finite supply of the stuff, and a finite supply of the stuff at any one time. By any measure, it fits the defintion of 'scarcity'.

Oil is already scarce. A good is scarce if not enough of it exists to satisfy everyone's desire for it, and therefore requires some price to allocate it. Oil has always been scarce. The price of oil is the best indicator of its relative scarcity, and the price has been going up a lot since 2002.

Agreed (though there's currently a terror premium). Oil will continue to get more and more scarce, and will be phased out with alternatives. Fifty is right that he might be running his car on vegetable oil someday.

Access to alternatives will be based on the price of oil; the higher the price, the more alternatives will be presented.

Now, there's an amusing scenario that could happen. Once alternatives come online, market efficiencies might kick in to reduce the price of alternatives. This would result in the price of oil coming down, not because of 'real' supply, but because of lack of demand.

Of course, our economies are very tied to the price of oil. Outside of global warming, the cheaper the energy is, the better off our societies are. (This is why I condemn wasteful energy usage as unpatriotic). Even factoring for global warming, repairing the damage done by CO2 emissions is easier if energy is cheap.

So, long-term, we're best off spending our oil wisely and frugally. This is true regardless of how much there is left.

Of course, there are others who espouse that spending oil as fast as possible is superior, because it's then denied to others who might benefit from it.

 

[Fifty]

You guys voting 10-50 years are like the Al Gore koolaid drinkers that think global warming will destroy the planet in that time.

Actually, if you knew anything you'd know that the estimated time until earth destruction is currently ~5 years. Luckily, I read an e-book about how to build a veggie powered rocketship to mars, where I will develop an organic farm to oxygenate the atmosphere.

 

[Masquerouge]

We will never run out of oil.

But at some point we will start consuming more of the stuff than we can produce.. and that's when things will begin to go downhill.

Yes, exactly. On the second part.
Because on the first part, oil is a finite resource so we will run out of it.

 

[El_Machinae]

You guys voting 10-50 years are like the Al Gore koolaid drinkers that think global warming will destroy the planet in that time.

Wow, an ad hominem AND a misrepresentation of peoples' position, all in one go!

 

[LucyDuke]

Does "at the current rate" mean at the current rate of use, or at the current rate of acceleration of use?

 

[Abaddon]

Soon on an economically viable level.. but that will be replaced with bioethanol and the like.. life won't change much.

 

[ShannonCT]

Yes, exactly. On the second part.
Because on the first part, oil is a finite resource so we will run out of it.

I think Warpus's point is that we'll never run out of oil because we'll eventually come to the point where we've extracted all of the easy stuff and the hard stuff won't be worth getting compared to the alternative sources of energy.

 

[Truronian]

Nothing ever runs out, it just become economically unviable.

 

[warpus]

Yes, exactly. On the second part.
Because on the first part, oil is a finite resource so we will run out of it.

Nope. There will always be some oil left in the ground.

edit: ShannonCT, that's exactly what I'm saying

 

[Masquerouge]

I think Warpus's point is that we'll never run out of oil because we'll eventually come to the point where we've extracted all of the easy stuff and the hard stuff won't be worth getting compared to the alternative sources of energy.

In that case I agree

 

[El_Machinae]

editted: formatting didn't work.

 

[Kozmos]

If oil aint scarce why the **** it costs 60$ per barrel. At that price many others sources become cost competitive.