2011 US Election Day roundup

[JollyRoger]

My point is, if Obama takes Ohio, the the GOP will have to virtually run the table on a number of states that Obama won in 2008 - Indiana, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and a couple of others. If Obama takes Virginia, I would expect that he is cruising to a comfortable victory as that is probably one of the states he is expected to give back.

 

[NickyJ]

If Obama takes Virginia, I would expect that he is cruising to a comfortable victory as that is probably one of the states he is expected to give back.

That's a pretty big if you've got there. Going off of the state elections where the Democrats redistricted the state senate yet still lost, I think the Republicans have a good chance of winning Virginia. After all, when Obama won the state, his only real advantage was that he wasn't on the same party that Bush used to be on. That role has been reversed now, with Democrats trying to push themselves away from Obama. All the Republicans have to do is pick a semi-electable candidate. (Hello, Romney.) The rest is up to Obama campaigning in only 56 states instead of 57.

 

[kochman]

My point is, if Obama takes Ohio, the the GOP will have to virtually run the table on a number of states that Obama won in 2008 - Indiana, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and a couple of others. If Obama takes Virginia, I would expect that he is cruising to a comfortable victory as that is probably one of the states he is expected to give back.

Your point wasn't misunderstood... it was just not agreed with.
NoVA has been asserting more and more power in the Old Dominion, thereby potentially shifting it into a new MD... soon...

 

[downtown]

My point is, if Obama takes Ohio, the the GOP will have to virtually run the table on a number of states that Obama won in 2008 - Indiana, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and a couple of others. If Obama takes Virginia, I would expect that he is cruising to a comfortable victory as that is probably one of the states he is expected to give back.

I'm not sure I agree with this...I think Team Obama is planning on using different firewall states. They aren't even competing in Indiana. Obama has no chance there...but they seem to believe that they are more likely to hold Virgina (and maybe even North Carolina) than some of the rust belt states. If he's running against Mitt, he has a real chance of losing Michigan, for example.

State demographics are changing. A lot of young professionals who lean liberal are moving away from Ohio and PA and moving to states like VA and NC, turning them bluer. The folks who stick around in Ohio are older and whiter than they were even a decade ago, making them harder to hold. I can see Obama winning VA and NC and losing Ohio.

 

[JollyRoger]

My original point is that it is not a big deal, in and of itself, if Virginia goes GOP. Obama won by more electoral votes than McCain got. Virginia was likely the third most conservative state he won (behind Indiana and North Carolina). The GOP is going to have to take back states a lot more purple/blue than Virginia to have a shot. Virginia is not a swing state by any measure.