I voted this morning.
My precinct's polling place is a local elementary school, as is reasonably common across this part of the Commonwealth of Virginia. In this school district, students do not attend classes on Monday or Tuesday of this week, because the first marking period ended last week and the first two days are set aside as teacher workdays - for PD, grading, student/teacher(/parent) conferences, etc.
Social media has been abuzz with the slightly silly statistic that Republicans have better turnout on rainy election days. I've seen a few different explanations advanced for it - Republicans were the party out of presidential power under Obama so they were more motivated to come vote, rain only affects uncompetitive elections, rain only affects low-motivation voters which in this cycle are clearly not the Democrats, etc. Some of these explanations don't really work with each other. Whatever. I can report anecdotally that my precinct, which voted 60% for the incumbent Republican Representative in 2016 (although it went for Clinton by a similar margin and has voted Democrat in all other elections since), did not have a significant Republican presence when I showed up there to vote today. The designated signage area was festooned with signs for the Democratic candidates for Senator and Representative, but only one sign for the incumbent Republican Representative and none at all for the Republican challenger for Senate. There was a Democratic volunteer under an awning braving the rain with sample ballots, but no Republican volunteer. The Dem was a cheerful gentleman despite the rain; he had had the early shift, and was getting ready to leave to be replaced by the next volunteer in line. Several minutes later, when I left the polling place, I saw him taking a picture of the awning with his phone, to share on social media.
I know that in 2016 people got clowned on social media for saying that X party was going to win Y vote because of the signs. That's not really what I'm saying here. People have been talking about an enthusiasm gap, but pretty much every polling measure clearly shows that Republicans are on the wrong side of the gap now - and that makes sense, because this is a midterm election during a fairly unpopular Republican administration. Other statistics also don't look good for Republicans, like fundraising (outraised two to one nationally, although there are some questions about how effectively Democrats are spending that money) and, obviously,
the polls themselves. What I'm mostly saying here is that I found low-value anecdotal evidence to confirm my priors generated by what I already know about the election. I am sure that, at other precincts in the district, the Republicans will make a better showing. (They could hardly do
worse.)
I'm also saying that it's kind of funny how quickly this district has turned on the incumbent Republican, who won a fairly convincing victory in 2016 despite her district pulling hard for Clinton. The incumbent positioned herself as a moderate Republican and has been attempting to advertise that. But she's voted with the administration on most major measures, including the tax cut bill that actually raised many high-income tax rates in her district. In addition, this is a district close to DC, with a lot of federal workers whose pay has been negatively affected by the government's freeze. I suppose her balancing act failed. She got too much of the administration's stink on her, and the name at the top of the ballot - the Republican candidate for Senate - is such an execrable, vile, and unpopular thug that he may be dragging her down as well.
Feel free to throw these comments back in my face if she beats
her polls, by the way. Seems unlikely - I usually avoid making predictions unless they are relatively sure bets - but I suppose anything is theoretically possible. If anything, the Senate vote looks to be
even more lopsided.
The lines weren't bad. I showed up after the first big rush. There were lines around 0550 shortly before the polls opened, but they emptied reasonably quickly after people got to work. I went to the school gym, showed my ID, was provided with a paper ballot, filled it out, submitted it to the electronic tabulator, and was out the door within seven minutes.
I expect turnout will still be lower than 2016, because it is a midterm election. Turnout is significantly up so far in early voting across most of the country compared to the last midterm, in 2014, but that was such a poorly-attended vote that it doesn't make for a particularly flattering comparison.
