2018 U.S election

[onejayhawk]

I am fairly sure never saw it.

In this context, it's only what gets published that counts. Indeed, when you referred to top 20, I assumed you meant publishers, not pollsters. Hence the references to RCP, KOSS, and HuffPo. Reuters is not a place I normally look for statistical analysis. Perhaps I should change that.

J

 

[rah]

Yeah I guarantee that everyone is doing many projections. If you google ipsos, you'll see that we're one of the largest research firms in the world. A lot of what we do is market research, but we're quite large in political research.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I am fairly sure never saw it.

In this context, it's only what gets published that counts. Indeed, when you referred to top 20, I assumed you meant publishers, not pollsters. Hence the references to RCP, KOSS, and HuffPo. Reuters is not a place I normally look for statistical analysis. Perhaps I should change that.

J

No, in this context YOU only count what is published...and actually only what you happen to pick out that supports whatever otherwise unsupportably stupid nonsense you are trying to promote.

 

[rah]

In all fairness, you would have had to dig really really deep to see any of the models that we did that had the dumpster winning.
I was always proud that whenever they listed "bias" our company was usually listed in the "neutral" range. Especially since I worked with some of those teams and could verify that there was never ever any intentional influence. I'm also willing to bet that some other companies that held themselves to the same standard were not scored as well. (Not, for one second, suggesting that no one was biased )

 

[Timsup2nothin]

In all fairness, you would have had to dig really really deep to see any of the models that we did that had the dumpster winning.
I was always proud that whenever they listed "bias" our company was usually listed in the "neutral" range. Especially since I worked with some of those teams and could verify that there was never ever any intentional influence. I'm also willing to bet that some other companies that held themselves to the same standard were not scored as well. (Not, for one second, suggesting that no one was biased )

There is major bias in the determining of who is biased.

 

[JollyRoger]

There is a lot of biass in the reddest parts of Texas.

 

[Takhisis]

Such as your avatar?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

"In Texas, 332,000 voters under the age of 30 have cast ballots already, up nearly five fold from the 2014 midterms."

Guess what. They ain't voting for Ted Cruz.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I forgot to mention that there was a ballot initiative in my state to start the process of overturning Citizen's United

Another easy choice

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I forgot to mention that there was a ballot initiative in my state to start the process of overturning Citizen's United

Another easy choice

What can it do? State law can't overturn Federal law/court rulings. So what is this initiative meant to do? Does it only work within the state?

 

[metalhead]

"In Texas, 332,000 voters under the age of 30 have cast ballots already, up nearly five fold from the 2014 midterms."

Guess what. They ain't voting for Ted Cruz.

There appears to be late movement towards Democrats in a lot of these races. Jon Ralston has Dean Heller needing one or both of a huge edge in independents voting for him, or a huge turnout of Republicans on e-day.

The first seems impossible. The second, not so much - the same scenario played out in 2016, and Rs got a huge e-day turnout edge that almost brought them all the way back to win Nevada's electoral votes.

That does not seem repeatable, in a midterm year with unified R control in DC.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Big turnout favors democrats is the standard theory. Big turnout among young voters certainly favors democrats.

 

[Zkribbler]

What can it do? State law can't overturn Federal law/court rulings. So what is this initiative meant to do? Does it only work within the state?

Hobbs is right. States are pretty powerless to overturn as USSC ruling like Citizens United. There's only two things I can think of:

First is a non-binding resolution. There is an old adage which says: "The Supreme Court read election results." Perhaps enough person registering their discontent will lead the Court to reconsider.

Second is eating away at the ruling's underpinning. Eg: Political donations are "speech." People have the right to free speech. Corporations are people. Therefore corporations can give unlimited political campaign contributions. Theoretically it would be possible for states to re-define corporation as something other than "people." It would be a little like untying the Gordian Knot, but...

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Hobbs is right. States are pretty powerless to overturn as USSC ruling like Citizens United. There's only two things I can think of:

First is a non-binding resolution. There is an old adage which says: "The Supreme Court read election results." Perhaps enough person registering their discontent will lead the Court to reconsider.

Second is eating away at the ruling's underpinning. Eg: Political donations are "speech." People have the right to free speech. Corporations are people. Therefore corporations can give unlimited political campaign contributions. Theoretically it would be possible for states to re-define corporation as something other than "people." It would be a little like untying the Gordian Knot, but...

A state can also resolve to initiate the process of amending the constitution, and to support said process if it is initiated.

 

[Zkribbler]

A state can also resolve to initiate the process of amending the constitution, and to support said process if it is initiated.

True dat.

 

[Sommerswerd]

What can it do? State law can't overturn Federal law/court rulings. So what is this initiative meant to do? Does it only work within the state?

The vote was to form a commission... specifically to explore the options (presumably with state funds) for reducing and/or ending and/or exposing corporate money in political campaigns.

 

[Estebonrober]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/414703-abrams-targeted-by-racist-robocall-in-georgia

Seriously read the transcript of this robocall. I can honestly say we are in new territory. Also the Georgia governors race is likely the future of politics since republicans lack numbers and count on shrinking the voter base. Fear, racism, suppression front and center.

"This is the magical negro, Oprah Winfrey, asking you to make my fellow negress, Stacey Abrams, the governor of Georgia," the call begins, according to recordings.

"Years ago, the Jews who own the American media saw something in me - the ability to trick dumb white women into thinking I was like them," the voice continues. "I see that same potential in Stacey Abrams."

The robocall compares Abrams to a "poor man's Aunt Jemimah" who "white women can be tricked into voting for, especially the fat ones."

 

[Timsup2nothin]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/414703-abrams-targeted-by-racist-robocall-in-georgia

Seriously read the transcript of this robocall. I can honestly say we are in new territory. Also the Georgia governors race is likely the future of politics since republicans lack numbers and count on shrinking the voter base. Fear, racism, suppression front and center.

"This is the magical negro, Oprah Winfrey, asking you to make my fellow negress, Stacey Abrams, the governor of Georgia," the call begins, according to recordings.

"Years ago, the Jews who own the American media saw something in me - the ability to trick dumb white women into thinking I was like them," the voice continues. "I see that same potential in Stacey Abrams."

The robocall compares Abrams to a "poor man's Aunt Jemimah" who "white women can be tricked into voting for, especially the fat ones."

And here, from the comments section, is the unofficial statement of the Trumpist voter's position on this:

Here come the dem racebaiting claims...right on time.

Sorry lefties...no one believes you anymore.

The party that cries wolf....every hour on the hour.

Anyone who thinks the deplorables can be reasoned with, compromised with, worked with...whatever, take note.
But again, the long term strategy is just to minimize their ability to pass their voice on, and wait for them to die out, because they will.

 

[Takhisis]

Yes, but do we have the time for that? We have this climate change, and dictatorships such as Turkey, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela who want to bring down this democracy thing, and a host of other problems that probably won't wait kindly while we wait for nutjobs to thin out enough that they can be outvoted even with possibly even more skewed electoral alchemy.

 

[Estebonrober]

And here, from the comments section, is the unofficial statement of the Trumpist voter's position on this:



Anyone who thinks the deplorables can be reasoned with, compromised with, worked with...whatever, take note.
But again, the long term strategy is just to minimize their ability to pass their voice on, and wait for them to die out, because they will.

Yea I haven't seen a truly introspective conservative on here yet, if they were truly so they would have stopped backing this party when McConnell played politics with budgets during the worst market down turn in 80 years. Its completely about power, but that robocall is something new. Its definitely the start of something new in my lifetime.