2020 US Election (Part Two)

[Estebonrober]

You're just lucky they don't get along with the Senate expanders. They'd be trying to "give" you 20 senators or something.

giving Puerto Rico and DC representation they deserve is not just “expanding the senate”. It’s something people have been arguing for for some time. So while it’s gained some steam with the GOP playing voter suppression so viciously as to provoke outrage, the sentiment has been there for a long time.

Also can we all just romance the beauty of Patine and Farmboy stroking each other for forum civility? It’s pretty awesome to read.

 

[Farm Boy]

It was addressed as humor to El Mac and his imperialism, but you can jack it to whatever you want.

Happier?

 

[Patine]

this is so dishonest it’s even seems crazy for you. Literally in the previous part of the same post you argue that trump is not paying g attention to science now and that it’s irrelevant to the very statement cloud made about the continuing disregard for science in this administration. They are openly anti-science. I would not believe it if he did not say it out loud.

Then in the next part of the same post you use me saying that at the beginning they did follow the CDC playbook to what? Belittle Clouds point? It’s pretty audacious double talk but then again you are a libertarian who believes in “national healthcare” supposedly so the cognitive dissonance within your own mind must be pretty intense.

Frankly, honesty has been at a high premium by politicians, ideologues, pundits, and even fervent supporter of both major parties since AT LEAST 2015. But, since I know you regard calling out both major U.S. parties at the same time to automatically be a discrediting sin with knee-jerk reaction and refusal to even consider or think about the point made on the issue, just hive-mind, denunciation, I imagine this point, too, will be dismissed without any thought on the matter.

 

[Drakle]

According to 538, Trump has shot up 1, 2 points. Biden is still 10% higher but has flatlined.

What the hells, America.

I just checked 538 and Trump is back down to 12% chance of winning from 13% yesterday. Biden is also ahead in Georgia, whereas he was behind yesterday.

RCP has Biden up 7.3, 50.5% to 43.2%

As I've mentioned before, I think Trump has a shy-voter factor that is causing the tightening... folks who were always going to vote Trump but were reluctant to admit it. In any case, with 6.3% of the vote unspoken for and 3% to 5% going Third party for sure, I think that may be enough of a margin to limp Biden across the finish line... maybe... but certainly not the Flawless-Supreme-Victory we've been hoping for

And the last two added polls were Rasmussen Reports and IBD/TIPP both heavily GOP biased polling firms. Rasmussen is only giving Biden a +2, which 538 left as such. That is a bizarre outlier. Rasmussen has also clearly been moving its polling average in reaction to events to construct narratives, like a Trump post-debate surge. Nate should have like the Economist, removed them from the average. The economist data meanwhile shows no change, with Biden remaining at 95%.

I'm going to make a bold prediction (only bold by how people are stressing out). The Presidency is in the bag, barring literally immense scale cheating. The early vote count is way too large, the polling lead is way too large, there is no (serious) poll movement in Trump's favor, the Trump team October surprise flopped, Biden has a massive favorability advantage, and undecided voters like him more than Trump so odds are they break to him and not Trump, and even than the undecided voters are not large enough to make up the gap. Undecided and third party voters in 2016 were double digits. In 2020 it is single digits. This would be the worst viewed incumbent, in the worst economic situation to win reelection. The only reason people keep talking like Trump has a chance is the undemocratic nature of the system and years of mental stress and terror.

Biden is way closer to breaking through in Texas and taking a 400 EC sweep than Trump is to a victory.

The race to watch is the Senate. Democrats are favoured but have underperformed in the Senate, in 2014, 2016 and 2018, 3 cycles in a row. Hardening partisanship means Democratic candidates no matter how high quality just can't break through in some states. For the past like 50 years, someone with the resume of a Phil Bredesen, the fundraising he had, running in a year like 2018, against a ideological extreme candidates like Blackburn, would have won solidly. Instead, he lost by over 10 points.

And I don't really consider a 50-50, with VP tiebreaker a real majority given some Senate Democrats. And the Georgia runoffs are a massive question mark that could range from giving Democrats a real Senate majority to dooming the party and the US as a whole.


Also, @Patine just own being a Trump supporter. No one puts this much effort into being a doomer, everybody sucks. God, I wish people could just be honest about their arguments instead of playing these stupid mind games that everybody sees through.

 

[Gori the Grey]

The Presidency is in the bag, barring literally immense scale cheating.

So, totally up for grabs, then.

 

[Patine]

Also, @Patine just own being a Trump supporter. No one puts this much effort into being a doomer, everybody sucks. God, I wish people could just be honest about their arguments instead of playing these stupid mind games that everybody sees through.

Are we still on this, for crying out loud. Baseless, false ideological labels and accusations solely to discredit and slander others for political, ulterior purposes was a favourite tactic of Mussolini and McCarthy. But I thought you hated those kinds of people, and everything they stood for (and all of their signature tactics). As I've said from the start, I think both Biden and Trump are horrid candidates, and the fact the rigged electoral system makes them the only two ALLOWED a chance of winning is a travesty. A monstrous, irresponsible, bigoted, incompetent, loudmouthed populist, vs. a longstanding, enthusiastic supporter of criminal wars, tyrannical groups, terrorists and terrorist acts, and the War on Drugs and (un)Patriot Act, and one wonders why I feel the way I REALLY do (not the lie you've levied upon me) - and the real wonder is why more don't feel this way. The sharp, vicious, WW1 trenchline, hate-driven, horrid stereotype and myth espousing, uncompromising, and growingly violent socio-political divide caused - and exploited for short-term political gain at the expense of the long-term - by both major parties' ideologues and pundits that is destroying and killing the U.S. from within leads to casual but really quite atrocious comments like yours above being far more common, and, even worse, considered more and more acceptable in the toxic discourse.

 

[Drakle]

So, totally up for grabs, then.

Not just the stuff they are doing now, but some really massive stuff.

Whining.

Do you have these copypasted? lol, get some new material.

 

[Patine]

Not just the stuff they are doing now, but some really massive stuff.



Do you have these copypasted? lol, get some new material.

I don't need new material if you refuse to tackle what I already have, at all, but ignore it and try to blacklist and slander me baselessly me just like the far-right-wing authoritarian extremists you so CLAIM to despise and oppose, do.

 

[Drakle]

I don't need new material if you refuse to tackle what I already have, at all, but ignore it and try to blacklist and slander me baselessly me just like the far-right-wing authoritarian extremists you so CLAIM to despise and oppose, do.

Help. Help. I'm being persecuted on an internet forum.

I've argued with you before. You ignored my points and threw out your usual inane spiels. You are useless to actually argue with. You don't play chess with a pigeon. This subforum was so much better when you were not around.

Moderator Action: OK, this is inappropriate. We do not wish that others were not around on the forums. It's flaming for one thing and downright rude for another. Kindly keep this sort of sentiment to yourself. --LM
Please read the forum rules: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=422889

 

[Zkribbler]

So, totally up for grabs, then.

Gori, you are hte Evil.

 

[Kyriakos]

Any estimates on what percentage will go vote on election day? (I mean... not even Trump waited to do it then)

 

[Patine]

Help. Help. I'm being persecuted on an internet forum.

I've argued with you before. You ignored my points and threw out your usual inane spiels. You are useless to actually argue with. You don't play chess with a pigeon. This subforum was so much better when you were not around.

You've perfectly described your own form of rhetoric and argument that I've dealt with. But most people don't like looking in the mirror. Most people don't like having baseless accusations and slander solely to disingenuously discredit them thrown in their face, either. I'm sick of your lies and your hypocrisy, and I'm done with you. No one needs to be insulted and accused of false incriminations every single time they deal with someone.

 

[Drakle]

You've perfectly described your own form of rhetoric and argument that I've dealt with. But most people don't like looking in the mirror. Most people don't like having baseless accusations and slander solely to disingenuously discredit them thrown in their face, either. I'm sick of your lies and your hypocrisy, and I'm done with you. No one needs to be insulted and accused of false incriminations every single time they deal with someone.

Okay, stop posting then.


Anyway in talks of the general election.

https://twitter.com/WakeUp2Politics/status/1321166602465890307

The Trump campaign has canceled $5.5 million in Florida advertising, essentially going off the air in the state in the final week of the race.

“Trump is now placing his final bet on just 4 battleground states: Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio & Pennsylvania."

Literal insane idiocy. Late ads have the highest ability to move voters, and the GOP has more of its partisans to move, since Democrats have banked in a early vote lead. Florida is a state he actually won, that Republicans won in 2018 even as the rest of the nation moved left, and he has a shot at winning again.

But he is spending on Minnesota? A state he didn't win and Biden has a nearly 10 point polling lead-in. And Michigan, which he won by a fluke, and is rated the most likely state to flip from Red to Blue.

And Ohio. If he loses Ohio, he is already done.

The only smart state to spend on is Pennsylvania. So one of 4.

In 2016, the Trump team spent smartly on the tipping point states and overcome a slight fundraising deficit with smart spending and tons of earned media. Not Trump himself, he was asking to spend in New York.

In 2020 the Trump team wasted all their money, have scattershot spending with no real gameplan, and not targeted at the tipping point states, have a far greater money disadvantage, and most of their earned media is negative.

 

[Phrossack]

You've perfectly described your own form of rhetoric and argument that I've dealt with. But most people don't like looking in the mirror. Most people don't like having baseless accusations and slander solely to disingenuously discredit them thrown in their face, either. I'm sick of your lies and your hypocrisy, and I'm done with you. No one needs to be insulted and accused of false incriminations every single time they deal with someone.

Why do you even post here if you hate it here so much

 

[Berzerker]

Anyways, antifa bad. Bad antifa. Patine no likey.

View attachment 573229

I’ll stay on the human side of the argument tyvm.

I thought it was the Nazis who declared their side human. I dont know if it was Antifa or their offspring but a caravan of "Jews for Trump" was recently attacked in NY. Meanwhile Antifa's supporters blame Trump for promoting civil war.

this is so dishonest it’s even seems crazy for you. Literally in the previous part of the same post you argue that trump is not paying g attention to science now and that it’s irrelevant to the very statement cloud made about the continuing disregard for science in this administration. They are openly anti-science. I would not believe it if he did not say it out loud.

Then in the next part of the same post you use me saying that at the beginning they did follow the CDC playbook to what? Belittle Clouds point? It’s pretty audacious double talk but then again you are a libertarian who believes in “national healthcare” supposedly so the cognitive dissonance within your own mind must be pretty intense.

Why do you keep running away from your accusations? What did I say that was anti-science? I didn't say Trump is ignoring the science now. I said Trump was listening to the scientists when they were telling both parties to downplay the virus and need for masks to avoid panic buying of PPE. Trump, Pelosi, Biden, health experts, bureaucrats and media were telling us not to worry.

How did my response belittle Cloud? I quoted you because Cloud accused me of lying and posting nothing but falsehoods. You confirmed what I said about the effort to avoid a panic.

He gets a Trump rally very amped up and excited about the prospect of murdering journalists

Is Julian Assange at the top of their hit list? A bunch of people hate the media for good reason, they promoted a coup with a constant stream of politically motivated lies.

Given Biden's long history in the Senate Military Affairs Committee, his approval of every war and military action proposed in that period, as well as every CIA action, and the War on Drugs and (un)Patriot Act, I'm sure he has ACTUALLY had his hand in a few journalists being silenced.

I'd bet a grand he covered for the torture program like Pelosi

Because Berserker, who absolutely does not like or support Trump in any way, just considers Trump a better person and all the things Trump has done to be good or better.

Just don't think about it too much.

Biden is a mass murderer, being better aint hard. Now, you were complaining about someone putting words in your mouth?

Irony, thy name is Patine. I'm still waiting on your apology for misconstruing my position, something you yourself regularly get offended at being done to you. I'll happily welcome a private message, if that's what you prefer.

Hypocrisy, thy name is Gorbles

Unfortunately for you, the change you're asking for isn't going to come about by haranguing people on an Internet forum.

Will it work for you?

But why is he less decent than Trump? "Hey fat" or "dog-faced pony soldier" sounds less terrible than grab them by the Prussia.

Biden was accused of the same thing but the reason he's less decent is the trail of dead bodies and wrecked lives left in his wake.

 

[Edmund Ironside]

Biden was accused of the same thing but the reason he's less decent is the trail of dead bodies and wrecked lives left in his wake.

226k dead from Covid in US under Trump.

If you are blaming dead bodies caused by George W Bush or Obama (but according to you is Biden), then what about the Millions, maybe billions who will die because of Global Warming, which Trumps anti-environmental policies will have significantly contributed to?

Yet you say Trump is better??

If you think Trump is better then you either do not understand Global Warming, or don't care about the damage it will do and the dead lives that will result.

 

[Berzerker]

Why do you even post here if you hate it here so much

He's unhappy with Drakle, if people left the forum for disliking a poster there wouldn't be many people left

 

[Patine]

then what about the Millions, maybe billions who will die because of Global Warming

Global warming deaths cannot be laid completely at the feet of Trump. Bush pulled out of climate change talks in the first place. Hu and Xi never liked the idea, and they led, and lead, the world's biggest polluter. Modi and Putin haven't supported it, either, and their nations are also big polluters. The Persian Gulf Royal Families also oppose climate change talks (surprise, surprise!), and they have tonnes of money and influence. And don't forget the big, multi-national resource corporations executive leaderships, and their lobby fronts. And others of great influence and power besides. Although I'm not, at all, denying Trump and his cronies have a definite hand in it, blaming that kind of phenomenon, and all the death it causes, solely on one person is kind of comic book thinking, don't you think?

 

[Edmund Ironside]

Global warming deaths cannot be laid completely at the feet of Trump. Bush pulled out of climate change talks in the first place. Hu and Xi never liked the idea, and they led the world's biggest polluter. Modi and Putin haven't supported it, either, and their nations are also big polluter. And don't forget the big, multi-national resource corporations executive leaderships, and their lobby fronts. And others of great influence and power besides. Although I'm not, at all, denying Trump and his cronies have a definite hand in it, blaming that kind of phenomenon, and all the death it causes, solely on one person is kind of comic book thinking, don't you think?

If you are blaming dead bodies caused by George W Bush or Obama (but according to you is Biden), then what about the Millions, maybe billions who will die because of Global Warming, which Trumps anti-environmental policies will have significantly contributed to?

Please note the use of the question mark rather than a period and of the word 'contributed.'

@Patine Do you think blaming all deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan on Biden is reasonable? Because Bezerker does.

 

[Patine]

Please note the use of the question mark rather than a period.

@Patine Do you think blaming all deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan on Biden is reasonable? Because Bezerker does.

No, but Biden has a hand in the deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan just like Trump has in the COVID deaths. Regardless of @Drakle's lies and slanderous claims of what I believe and support, I detest both major party candidates, and believe the whole election is just selecting one horrid high criminal over another, which has turned the whole election into a cheated travesty and taken away real choice from the voters to select someone with any integrity will likely make any needed reforms or deal with the long-entrenched issues plaguing American society, that both major parties have mostly ignored, except for minor and superficial patch-jobs in specific areas, and show little appetite or desire to do more.