Well here's an interview of someone who "does it for a living" explaining why he believes in the "shy Trump voter" factor, essentially another version of the "Bradley Effect"... and how he factors it into his polling. He is predicting a Trump upset and claims that his polling is more accurate precisely because he is able to account for the "shy Trump voter".
https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/...called-2016-for-trump-says-hell-win-again.cnn
Trafalgar Group is an openly partisan polling outfit, which the Economist has already removed from its model for being liars, and Nate Silver has attacked on Twitter for being crap (but hasn't removed for some inane reason). They retweet Republican talking points, and routinely hide their data. Nate Silver questioned some of their insane crosstabs, and they just withdrew the data from the net. Even okay pollsters don't do that.
And their 'methods' is 'well we don't believe that Trump is polling this low, so we just add some surge points to him in Michigan'.
Anyway, this is just my two cents. But Trump only offers 'owning the libs' and basic partisanship. The economy is bad, COVID is bad, Opioids are still bad, Farmers are dying out, rural areas are still being hollowed out, he hasn't solved any issues, Republicans literally don't offer any real economics that appeals to anybody that isn't super-rich. And most of the Super rich would objectively benefit more from the economy not being on fire.
So what does he offer? Just non stop confrontation with the 'libs'. And if you like that, then you aren't quiet.
Also if there is a group of quiet Trump supporters, why aren't they saying they back Republicans for Senate? Those people are more mask on, and don't say the surface level nasty stuff. So are more 'socially acceptable to vote for'. Yet actually they are often polling WORSE than Trump.
And of course, Trump and the Republicans are getting massively outraised by Biden and Democrats in terms of small donations. That isn't the only factor of course (Democratic primaries), but when compared alongside everything else there just isn't any evidence for quiet Trump supporters. These people are loud, and like being loud. They are also just a small minority.
@Drakle, I say it’s Congress’ fault for writing crappy law.
Come off it. They act in the interest of their partisanship. Simple as that.
Bush v Gore had nothing to do with Congress, and everything to do with securing the election for Bush. There are now 3 Bush lawyers on the court, who acted to make sure late-arriving military ballots were counted in 2000, who will now argue to throw them all out, because elections totally have to be decided on election night, despite Republican legislatures acting to prevent that, by starting counts earlier. It is naked partisanship.
Citizens United just ran right over a bunch of campaign finance law that was well constructed and had been held up, by those judges in cases just prior. Why? Because in 2008, Obama's small-donor fundraising powered him to victory, and the Conservative judges wanted to overwhelm that with dark money.
Then after Obama won in 2012, with record minority turnout, what did the judges do? They gutted the VRA which was working fine, and then allowed Republicans to do as much voter suppression as they wanted. Their justification wasn't, 'Congress did a bad job writing this bill". It was 'well clearly racism isn't really a factor in American elections anymore, so let's scrap it'. These states will totally be fair and not racist.
Saying it is congress job, is a bull answer. They knew that Republicans in the House and Senate could grind the passage of any bill 'fixing the issues' to a full halt, and so they were safe to legislate from the bench.
... How a random Trump caravan received 3 police cruiser escort is beyond me... unless the cops are just their friends/fellow Trumpers who, instead of doing their actual police jobs, are instead just using their taxpayer funded vehicles to do their pals a favor.
