2020 US Election (Part Two)

[amadeus]

I agree with this actually. Biden should not touch Trump with a proverbial 50 ft pole.

I mean I understand the people that feel it would be unjust to let the Don off the hook (if there is sufficient evidence for criminal wrongdoing) but we can’t fall victim to the fallacy of a perfectly just universe.

Ignoring Trump may be a moral wrong, but the greater good of society has more to lose in focusing on pursuing this sense of fairness and justice when the immediate material needs of good governance are the ultimate baseline under which we should be looking toward.

 

[Lexicus]

There are people in the Trump administration who need to be prosecuted for crimes against humanity.

 

[amadeus]

Clearly the most effective strategy: pursuing only the most specious claims.

Holding elected leaders to a universal standard of justice would probably mean, in the United States, indicting every former living U.S. President including (insert halo here) Jimmy Carter.

Not happening in a brazillion years.

 

[Drakle]

Okay prediction thread. Anybody else got any predictions?

Okay, let's do a prediction game

2 points if you successfully hard call a state/EC district (ie Maine and Nebraska). You lose 5 points if you hard call a state and get it wrong.
1 point if you successfully soft call a state. You lose 2 points if you soft call a state and get it wrong
You can also leave a state a toss-up, and neither gain nor lose any points.

https://www.270towin.com/

My own prediction is

https://www.270towin.com/maps/1koj3

Being a bit bold, with only 1 tossup.

Hard call all Clinton 2016 states, Nebraska swing district, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

Soft call Maine 2nd, Georgia, Iowa and Texas

Tossup Ohio.

For Trump soft call South Carolina, Montana and Alaska. It's not that there is an amazing chance of them flipping as they are all fairly red states, but there is an outside possibility, and this leaves it open for a 2008 style Indiana flip that comes semi out of the blue.

The reminder, hard call for Trump.

Anyway, the Trump family and admin totally need to be investigated and prosecuted.

 

[amadeus]

Hard call that neither Trump nor Biden win any of the following states: Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, Queensland, or New South Wales.

Boom! I’m already ten points ahead.

You didn’t say they had to be U.S. states!

 

[Birdjaguar]

I mean I understand the people that feel it would be unjust to let the Don off the hook (if there is sufficient evidence for criminal wrongdoing) but we can’t fall victim to the fallacy of a perfectly just universe.

Ignoring Trump may be a moral wrong, but the greater good of society has more to lose in focusing on pursuing this sense of fairness and justice when the immediate material needs of good governance are the ultimate baseline under which we should be looking toward.

F that. NY and other states need to pursue the whole Trump family for any criminality. And if they have cheated on his taxes, the IRS needs to pursue them. They are crooks.

 

[Edmund Ironside]

Okay prediction thread. Anybody else got any predictions?

I am presuming a hard call is a confident prediction and a soft call an unconfident prediction?

I think your prediction for Florida is bold! It is predictable in its unpredictability!
I will post my predictions tomorrow.

 

[amadeus]

F that. NY and other states need to pursue the whole Trump family for any criminality. And if they have cheated on his taxes, the IRS needs to pursue them. They are crooks.

Read carefully! I said that it should be left to the state, and Biden intervening is the thing that should be a no-no.

 

[Estebonrober]

F that. NY and other states need to pursue the whole Trump family for any criminality. And if they have cheated on his taxes, the IRS needs to pursue them. They are crooks.

i agree with this, I just also agree Biden should stay 50 ft away from it. If federal investigators or congress go somewhere on say a Bill Barr for example, I am good with that and hope it happens, but Biden as president should not cheerlead.

 

[Berzerker]

if Trump loses he'll agree to not appoint a special counsel for dropping investigations into his clan

 

[Estebonrober]

if Trump loses he'll agree to not appoint a special counsel for dropping investigations into his clan

Yea you can take that offer and stick it. Bring on those special counsels. I’m still waiting for Hilary to be locked up.

 

[Zardnaar]

6 hours to Tuesday here. Hurry up USA.

 

[Berzerker]

Yea you can take that offer and stick it. Bring on those special counsels. I’m still waiting for Hilary to be locked up.

Biden doesn't want a special counsel looking into the family business

 

[Birdjaguar]

if Trump loses he'll agree to not appoint a special counsel for dropping investigations into his clan

Biden doesn't want a special counsel looking into the family business

The feds can't do anything to stop the states once Trump is out of office. And if Biden wins, once he is in office and reestablishes the independence of the DOJ, Biden can just look the other way. In addition if Trump set up a special counsel after the election, there is little they can do from Nov 10 to Jan 20. At that point the whole Executive branch turns over. It is likely a SC would not survive that.

And tax fraud is its own problem for Trump.

 

[Zardnaar]

Biden landslide perhaps.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/us...ted-for-joe-biden/YWXAJOAJWTIH5UJDJ3K2DNHWZY/

 

[Drakle]

Can you explain the difference between a hard call and a soft call.

I think your prediction for Florida is bold! It is predictable in its unpredictability!
I will post my predictions tomorrow.

Hard call is just a bolder call. More points, but riskier since you lose more points by being wrong.


Anyway, final polling round still looks good for Biden and Democrats.

https://twitter.com/SeanMcElwee/status/1323108542010765323

Some fresh @DataProgress polls (including some in under-polled states).

PRES (Biden margin):
National +10
TX +1
NC +2
CO +12
AZ +3
VA +11
AL -20

SENATE (D margin):
TX -3
NC +5
CO +9
AZ +8
VA +15
AL -12

Remember when Colorado was a swing state? and Virginia was a red state.

https://twitter.com/b_schaffner/status/1323022023078150149

CES likely voter estimates for 5 key swing states:
FL (N=3,755): Biden 49 - Trump 47

GA (N=1,456): Biden 48 - Trump 47

NC (N=1,627): Biden 49 - Trump 45

PA (N=2,703): Biden 52 - Trump 44

TX (N=2,947): Trump 49 - Biden 47

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1322901209158746114

Final pre-election national NBC/WSJ poll among registered voters: Biden 52% Trump 42%

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1322865042468048898

Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in the four states likeliest to decide the presidency, according to the final Times/Siena surveys of the campaign

Ariz.: Biden 49, Trump 43

Florida: Biden 47, Trump 44

Penn.: Biden 49, Trump 43

Wisc: Biden 52, Trump 42

No time for Trump to recover his polling deficit. Only fraud will give him the Presidency again.

 

[Estebonrober]

Biden doesn't want a special counsel looking into the family business

You mean into Hunter's deals? I mean go ahead, that will be a first though, getting a special counsel to look into the child's business dealings. Seems like a good precedent.

 

[Cloud_Strife]

Yelling?, nah....I was just curious as to who @aelf was specifically referencing, since he lacked the....(hmmm)...."conviction" to say. Are you...ok...? Have the dog whistles affected your hearing?

What are you trying to say here @bernie14 ? That dogwhistling doesn't exist?

Will you vote gop?

 

[amadeus]

You mean into Hunter's deals? I mean go ahead, that will be a first though, getting a special counsel to look into the child's business dealings. Seems like a good precedent.

I’m just jealous. I’ve never snorted coke in my life (wouldn’t!) and no one has ever hooked me up with a job that pays fifty large a month.

What’s the frequency, Kenneth?
Where’s the job connections, Hunter?

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Trump & the Coronavirus: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver