2022 Iran protests - BBC News
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Just how far do we think these protests will go?
2022 Iranian Protests
- Thread starter Aiken_Drumn
- Start date
Just how far do we think these protests will go?
ywhtptgtfo
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You can use the 2009 protests as comparison: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Iranian_presidential_election_protests
Those were also big but were eventually crushed. There would need for support from the Revolutionary Guard for a regime change.
Those were also big but were eventually crushed. There would need for support from the Revolutionary Guard for a regime change.
Zardnaar
Deity
Crushed no change.
Revolts need support from factions in the elite or armed forces. Or at least indifference.
Revolts need support from factions in the elite or armed forces. Or at least indifference.
Henri Christophe
L'empereur
I think this time the Theocracy of Iran will re-think about the laws against womens.
Surprisingly Elon Musk may not be a saviour here
Why Elon Musk’s Starlink will not affect protests in Iran
So far the only effect of Starlink’s ‘activation’ has been indirectly helping spread malware on Iranian devices.
Why Elon Musk’s Starlink will not affect protests in Iran
So far the only effect of Starlink’s ‘activation’ has been indirectly helping spread malware on Iranian devices.
Tehran, Iran – “Activating Starlink.”
That is how billionaire Elon Musk generated headlines last week as he often does, in a few terse words on Twitter. This time, he was referring to the ongoing protests in Iran.
He was making a promise to allow Iranians affected by state-imposed internet restrictions to use his satellite internet network operated by SpaceX. And the United States government said it would support his efforts by easing its sanctions on Iran by promoting the free use of the internet and issuing the necessary permits to make the process work.
But while bringing the internet to Iran via a satellite link is not out of the question, a set of serious challenges make it highly improbable, at least in the short term.
Citing “security concerns”, authorities have introduced the tightest internet restrictions across Iran since the November 2019 protests.
What would Starlink need to work?
In addition to a subscription service, Starlink terminals – hardware that would allow the user to connect – are required to link up.
Starlink has reportedly sent more than 15,000 terminals to Ukraine after Russia’s invasion in February.
Although Ukraine could in theory export the terminals, a key sticking point for Iran would be the fact that Ukraine is a US ally and therefore deemed a security threat.
The Iranian foreign ministry last week called the US’s revoking of some of its internet-related sanctions an effort towards “violating Iran’s sovereignty”. It said it would take immediate action and officials blocked Starlink’s website the same day.
In order for Starlink to work, thousands of Starlink terminals would need to be smuggled into Iran. This would probably cost millions of dollars – which Tehran would view as a security risk.
Unless SpaceX decides to make its subscriptions free for Iranians, many will not be able to afford them because of the country’s ailing economy made worse by US sanctions that have cut Iran off from international payment systems.
News of Starlink’s “activation” has circulated wide and far among Iranians, many of whom have pinned their hopes on the service.
But so far, the only tangible result has been hackers who published malware under the guise of software required to connect to Starlink in order to dupe users.
Starlink could potentially face legal and regulatory ramifications if it were to meaningfully advance its plans without the cooperation of the Iranian government.
Iran has had a history of legally pursuing grievances with Western powers, namely concerning the US and its wide-reaching sanctions.
It is possible that if Starlink’s plans do actually move ahead, Iran could turn to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the international communications regulatory body of the United Nations, or other authorities to legally protest the move.
GenMarshall
High Elven ISB Capt & Ghost Agent
I have a wait and see mentality for this due to the history of the Supreme Leader (I vaguely only know the political system of Iran and it’s largely a theocratic republic) would clamp down and shut down the protests.
ywhtptgtfo
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Even though the Iranian regime is detestable, this is clear cut foreign operation to undermine an existing regime. With the nuclear talks underway, it's not necessarily the wisest move.
Besides, the efficacy of Starlink is disputed. Unlike Ukraine, Iran will be a hostile recipient.
Besides, the efficacy of Starlink is disputed. Unlike Ukraine, Iran will be a hostile recipient.
I think there is little doubt they are trying to stamp down on the protests. The question is if the stamping will put out the fire or fan the flames.
Now that is the kinda cushty job I need!
There is not even the slightest hint that this is a "foreign operation".
It really boggles my mind how some people manage to think that 90% of the world is incapable of having their own opinion. It may be news to you, but people all over the world are perfectly capable of rising up against injustice done to them without someone holding their hands for it. How little do you have to think of other humans to believe they are all just blind sheeple who follow some foreign agitation?
In most cases these sort of uprisings are almost exlusively caused by local events. There can be cases where foreign powers will jump in and support an uprising later on, and occasionally they will create one out of thin air (*cough*Crimea*cough*Donbass*), but for the most part unhappy people will accomplish it on their own. Which is also the reason why most of these events end up failing after some time, because you tend to need a powerful ally to succeed. E.g. the people succeeded in Egypt because the military told Mubarak it was time to go.
In this particular case, you have a nation ruled by a theocratic regime that very much acts against the interests of a large part of its population. You treat people bad enough for long enough, they might eventually be fed up, and a small crisis can get out of hand. Here it was the mistreatment and then (likely) murder of a woman by the police. That's as natural a cause as you are going to get. Foreign backed agitation doesn't operate in such a way. Nor was there enough foreign influence on the ground for large masses to act like that anyway.
amadeus
Serenity now
My suspicion is that they will just peter out.
I suspect you are right. Sadly the West continues to underestimate how conservative much of Iran is. Tehran is not the country as a whole.
stinkubus
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People are suspicious because the western outlets wouldn't be talking them up if they didn't think they could take advantage at a minimum. It's been no secret the the US has been fomenting or exploiting such popular movements for purposes of installing friendly regimes.
The woman leading this lives in an FBI safehouse somewhere in New York. I hope she's successful, but let's not pretend.
Remorseless1
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The current Ayatollah is elderly and reportedly in very poor health. It's possible that he could've a difference maker when 2022 is compared to the Green Spring. The Ayatollah's death could destabilize the entire regime, or a sick old man could get bleach a bloody crackdown.
amadeus
Serenity now
There’s Ayatollah Nakhbadeh, Ayatollah Zahedi… Even as we speak, Ayatollah Razmara and his cadre of fanatics are consolidating their power!
Who’s the woman leading the protests? Not Masih Alinejad? I don’t think there’s one person doing it.
I first heard about this when Mahsa Amini was in a coma and then her body was from to Saqqez and there was a protest there which quickly became associated with the Kurdish cause locally there, since this is Kurdistan Province in Iran.
There were also protests in Tehran, initially at the hospital where she was. Then it spread a lot of places and the protestors managed to take control of part of one city, Oshnavieh, in West Azerbaijan province and there’s been a lot of protests in that area as well which is largely Kurdish and Azeri.
But there were many arrests in this province in the Caspian and heard about in Mashhad so it’s been a lot of places.
I’m mostly hearing about this from Iranian opposition sources. Iranian state media said Mahsa Amini “collapsed” at a police station where she and others were receiving training on dress code rules.
I first heard about this when Mahsa Amini was in a coma and then her body was from to Saqqez and there was a protest there which quickly became associated with the Kurdish cause locally there, since this is Kurdistan Province in Iran.
There were also protests in Tehran, initially at the hospital where she was. Then it spread a lot of places and the protestors managed to take control of part of one city, Oshnavieh, in West Azerbaijan province and there’s been a lot of protests in that area as well which is largely Kurdish and Azeri.
But there were many arrests in this province in the Caspian and heard about in Mashhad so it’s been a lot of places.
I’m mostly hearing about this from Iranian opposition sources. Iranian state media said Mahsa Amini “collapsed” at a police station where she and others were receiving training on dress code rules.
I'm not convinced that Iran ends up poorer, a generation hence, if it pivots towards the west.
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