2024 Election: 2023 Edition

[El_Machinae]

Gavin Newsome or Jamie Raskin

I lose track of American politicians. What makes these two good picks? Backing a good horse early and aggressively seems to be a useful tactic, especially since targeting the opponent's good horse early is an essential part of the strategy.

 

[danjuno]

So, Buttigieg?

A 2024 Buttigieg vs Sununu election would be my ideal. DeSantis vs Biden is my nightmare, and Trump vs Harris is my sucks-so-it'll-probably-happen expectation.

Biden seems to want to go for a second term from what I've read. So I expect a Biden-Trump rematch.

I would prefer someone like Baldwin, Brown or Fetterman as a populist/progressive from a competitive state.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I lose track of American politicians. What makes these two good picks? Backing a good horse early and aggressively seems to be a useful tactic, especially since targeting the opponent's good horse early is an essential part of the strategy.

Newsome is Gov of CA and Raskin was a lead on the House Jan 6 committee from Maryland. Both are young and smart. They have appealing personalities and stage presence. They also have national recognition.

 

[El_Machinae]

Has California improved in measurable ways under Newsome? And are there erosions that will be used against them? Covid-19 will make these comparisons difficult, but I betcha "Florida vs. California" will dominate the analyses.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Has California improved in measurable ways under Newsome? And are there erosions that will be used against them? Covid-19 will make these comparisons difficult, but I betcha "Florida vs. California" will dominate the analyses.

That would depend upon who you ask. CA has had its share of weather and climate troubles over the past few years that have been driving the news. I think CA has been less progressive than FL has been going far right. But I don't live in either place.

 

[danjuno]

Raskin has been undergoing chemo for lymphoma, so the health issue would be a mountain to climb.

The attempted Recall of Newsom over the COVID violations failed bad enough, but Republicans would still make hay with it in a national campaign.

 

[Farm Boy]

That would depend upon who you ask. CA has had its share of weather and climate troubles over the past few years that have been driving the news. I think CA has been less progressive than FL has been going far right. But I don't live in either place.

Californians, like Illinoisans, are voting with thier feet and leaving. Florida attracts other Americans. Everything else is going to require clever control factors that will resonate less.

 

[danjuno]

I have no idea what attracts people to the sunbelt.

 

[RobAnybody]

Biden, assuming no blatant, derailing health conditions is going to run again & will face no serious challengers from the Democrats. The ones who might are in his Cabinet & won't oppose him. He's not going to "step down". It would be suicide for the Democrats if he did, IMO. Basically a pre-admission of defeat & almost conceding the next election to whomever the R's put up. They couldn't run on Biden's record, which has actually been quite impressive, even if not enough. And I don't see anyone else, outside of maybe Newsom, who would even register on the general public's radar.

To clarify what I'm saying: there are absolutely better Dem candidates out there. But not ones who could realistically win against Trump/DeSantis/[other R who wins their nomination]. And the voters are much more likely to care about that than supporting the current version of Ralph Nader, or Jill Stein, or making a "protest vote". I say this because I believe that lesson has been learned the hard way, too many times, across too many age ranges & voter blocs. Just pointing to the Supreme Court & Trump's THREE appointees is enough to illustrate that point, I think.

What happens if "this candidate isn't good enough!!" happens again like it did in '16 & Trump 2.0 or DeSantis gets control from '25-'28? Losing the Supreme Court for not just the next 20 years but for the foreseeable future? Not to even mention the issues the left, most left-leaning moderates (also honestly a lot of right-leaning moderates I know), & the younger crowd care about: LGBTQ rights, Climate Change, income inequality, college affordability, election integrity, etc. - they would all be dead in the water instead of advancing slower than they'd like.

Basically: Vote Electable>Ideal. Don't Let the Prefect [sic] Be The Enemy Of the Good. I think that lesson has been hammered home? At least, I hope it has.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I have no idea what attracts people to the sunbelt.

No snow, less cold, more jobs.

 

[TheCleanerDragon]

I have no idea what attracts people to the sunbelt.

For old people being a bit sweatier in summer is worth the reduced chance of slipping on ice and breaking every bone in their body. For young people I have no idea.

 

[Zardnaar]

For old people being a bit sweatier in summer is worth the reduced chance of slipping on ice and breaking every bone in their body. For young people I have no idea.

Cost of living they've been priced out if New england/NYC/California.

To OP yeah vote splitting in a FPTP tends to advantage the right. Think we had two elections go right because of it here. 20% of the vote essentially got flushed away enabling a minority popular vote government to hang around like a bad smell.

Think that 20% delivered 2 seats out of 99.

Social credit got 20% of the vote

1981 New Zealand general election - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

No other third party has hit 20%+ of the vote since even with proportional. Greens generally get 5-10% by comparison.

39% of the vote won majority of seats. Trump was more popular by comparison. Left got 59% of the vote and couldn't govern.

 

[Ajidica]

No snow, less cold, more jobs.

Cold and snow kills most of the creepy-crawlies; and we don't have any fire ants.
Having grown up in Georgia, I'll always take the week of -20F over fire ants.

Regarding presidential candidates; Biden's fine. He's old, but it isn't like the Dems have anyone better out there. Their national bench is looking pretty dicey. Come 2028 they have who? Kamala hasn't filled anyone with confidence. Klobuchar's been eyeing things, but unless she threatens to throw a stapler at every voter within range unless they vote for her, I can't see her making it out of 'kiddie table' crowd.

 

[okidutmsvacoal]

As someone from country with somewhat working multi-party democracy, I'll say one thing: US needs more parties ASAP or it really tears itself apart. Violently.

The two-party political system has inherently polarizing effect, made even worse by some US-specific cultural and demographical effects. And it picked up pace in last few decades.The effect also means that the pendulum of power will inevitably swing back to Republicans. Maybe not in 2024, but I suspect that at 2032 latest, you'll get your president DeSantis.

Green Party hurt Democrats because it aimed at Democrat voters. But right now, I suspect there's quite significant pool of moderate conservatives that would appreciate a third option.

While I agree, our system practically mandates two parties. Presidential election is what the focus is, so any third party is just a spoiler for one side or the other.
I've often mocked the Libertarian Party for even bothering with a Presidential candidate, since they get some pathetic 1% of the vote - after 50 years of being around touting their message. Idealists don't want to hear it but these fringe parties need to form alliances, not run candidates (generally). Find some specific campaigns (almost certainly VERY low down the power chain, lick a County Commissioner, or at most a State Rep), where they can be an actual contender - and focus their talent, money, and people to winning those few elections. The other elections, form alliances and throw their support to 'the best candidate'.

 

[Birdjaguar]

@okidutmsvacoal Welcome Off topic!

 

[Gori the Grey]

It will be Biden vs Trump and the vote will be 81 million to 74 million.

Edit: Oh, and I forgot the most important thing. Trump will become president by virtue of several state legislatures overturning the popular vote in their state, as they have given themselves power to do.

 

[Lexicus]

Californians, like Illinoisans, are voting with thier feet and leaving. Florida attracts other Americans. Everything else is going to require clever control factors that will resonate less.

I'm convinced most of the people moving to Florida will be dead (of old age) in like 15 years max

 

[Lexicus]

As someone from country with somewhat working multi-party democracy, I'll say one thing: US needs more parties ASAP or it really tears itself apart. Violently.

Yes, we all know having more than 2 parties in the national legislature is an ironclad guarantee that the country will not fall apart. It worked so well in Germany in the 30s. And Hungary and Poland have more than 2 and somehow failed to avoid becoming quasi-dictatorships.

 

[Sarin]

Yes, we all know having more than 2 parties in the national legislature is an ironclad guarantee that the country will not fall apart. It worked so well in Germany in the 30s. And Hungary and Poland have more than 2 and somehow failed to avoid becoming quasi-dictatorships.

You're ignoring many countries where it actually works and nitpicking the examples. It's not 100%, but multi-party system has far better track record than two-party.

 

[Gori the Grey]

I'm convinced most of the people moving to Florida will be dead (of old age) in like 15 years max

That's pretty much what people move to Florida to do.