What major fuel(s) will the world be using for energy in 2100?
- Thread starter Narz
- Start date
No.
If you want to build fast breeder reactors, there will be enough uranium for a very long time. They do have disadvantages to normal reactors, though.
Then nobody has really been actively searching for uranium recently. The known reserves would probably increase significantly if the uranium price increased and people started searching for it.
Another point is, that the fuel is only a small part of the costs for nuclear reactors. Together with the fact, that energy prices will probably increase, this could make even very inefficient sources attractive (e.g. filtering uranium from sea water)
Finally, there is research ongoing to build reactors running on thorium. And there is much more thorium than uranium around.
GoodGame
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I was more concerned about reading how about only 0.75% of all uranium is a fissionable isotope. So what are 'fast breeder reactors'---I know the breeders take unfissionable uranium and turn it into a fissionable element (Polonium?, I can't recall), but would they be a nearly infinite source of efficient nuclear fission?
True, but that's already considered in all these "how long will uranium last" calculations.
It's plutonium instead of polonium, but yes, breeders do work like that. "Fast breeder" just refers to a type of breeder, "fast" meaning that it uses fast neutrons to make plutonium from uranium. As the supply of unfissionable uranium is not unlimited either, there is a limit how long this type of reactors could be used, but at current consumption this limit would be thousands of years, so it's nothing we have to worry about.
First off, thanks to Thunderfall for taking me up on my awesome idea!
So anyway, what do you guys think will be the dominant fuels for...
A : electricity production?
B : transportation?
C : manufacturing? - what will stuff be made out from? For example today one could answer : plastic & other synthetic chemicals, wood, cotton, metals; in the future perhaps hemp & some new synthetics will be used to make plastics & perhaps other products such as clothing & paper.
Happy February!
I prefer "Power Source" instead of "Eletricity Production". It's possible that there could be a new form of power source, like some sort of plasma.
Now, before I say "Wood", "Horse", and "Hard Labor"...
A: Power Source - Maybe a combination of wind, solar (both aren't always reliable - solar won't work at night, or very well on a cloudy day), hydro (won't work if a river were to dry up or change course) and thermal. Thermal's probably the best bet for being the most reliable.
As for electric cars, there's one problem... you need to plug the cars in, which means you'll be using more power from the power plants. True, you won't be using gas, but that means more power plants, more maintainance and power plants will need to be replaced more frequently. Sure you could put it in at night, but many people have more than 1 car, and may leave it plugged in all day. Just imagine an entire city doing that. And you're obviously not going to have solar or wind powered cars.
Spoiler :
Also, from a blog on resources - (a map from "New Scientist" I think)
The Amount of Resources Left in the Earth: (I'm assuming this means economically feasible resources. Technically, the earth's core is solid iron, but there's no way you're gonna get that any time soon.) The image shows the current and potential (that is, if all nations consumed resources at 1/2 the US rate, which assumes rapid development) depletion rate. I think that, given countries like China, India, and Brazil (even Russia again in a decade or two), are starting to attain World Power status, the depletion rate might be a bit quicker (i.e., copper might be more like 50 years instead of 61).
(spoiler tag for a super-large image)
Spoiler :
According to this, copper runs out this century. There've already been copper thieves (one stole the copper rainspout from our church recently!
)Gold also runs out this century (used for electronics and space technology).
Lead runs out (not that it's exactly the healthiest element out there... then again, we drank out of lead pipes in school and turned out just fine.
).Nickle runs out. (Used in batteries)
Silver runs out.
Tin runs out.
Uranium (nuclear power!) - Up to 59 years left. They'll have to start converting nukes into power (talk about turning swords into ploughshares!). Uranium, and a few others, are also listed has having 0% recyclability, for obvious reasons. So, I don't think nuclear power will be a power source for too long, unless Breeder Reactors are used (not sure why they were banned).
Zinc runs out.
Antimony (medical drugs) runs out.
Coal - Not listed, but I've seen anywhere from 200-400 years left.
Oil - Also not listed, but I've seen anywhere from 25-40 years left, but with oil in the carribean, off of Brazil, and the North Pole, it could be 100 years.
B - Transportation - Probably cars, but if oil gets too expensive (and physcologically, I don't think people would be thrilled about having a "nuke in the tank" - just imagine all of the Snopes urban legend articles that would generate!), then bikes, animals, or walking. Currently, there's only a few million horses in the US (many in the mid-atlantic, and in the Great Plains), and half as many donkeys, mules, and llamas (yes, there are llama carts).
I do not see flying cars, since there's just too many issues, like chain reaction mid-air collisions, a flying car running out of fuel in flight, 50,000 flying cars vying for a parking spot at a stadium at once. That's assuming that they're atleast computer controlled. How would police deal with a flying car chase, too?
C - Manufacturing - Don't know. I think that's kind of broad. You'll still have cotten, wool, iron (and steel). But, with depleting resources (or increasing costs), carbon nanotube based objects might help out a bit.
Also, in regards to resource manufacturing and mining, I don't think we'll be mining space asteroids any time soon. Yes, there's the Space Elevator project (which costs maybe half of most nation's GDP), but such an elevator would be SLOW (22,000+ miles would take a few weeks). Plus, there's legal and political implications. Who gets the resource? What about corporate monopolies? I could see wars fought over these things (and someone's bound to use an asteroid as a weapon). Secondly, how do you mine it? Do you bring it into orbit? Do you send a robotic space craft out to mine it? Mine it on-site in orbit? Things like solving lack of gravity and radiation would have to be done first, much less having some sort of manufacturing colony in space already.
One interesting point of note with regards to declining resources. Back in 1500BC-1200BC, the Middle East faced the same problem with depleting tin. That meant an increase in the cost of bronze (swords, farming tools - and thus, the cost of grain went up - hyper-inflation?). That caused the region to descend into a Dark Ages. I was reading a book on Google about different periods of Dark Ages -
2200BC - 1700BC: Caused by climate change (volcanos I think).
(approx.) 1200BC - 700BC: Declining resources.
500AD - 1000AD: Mass Migration (caused essentially by a unified China pushing west)
I prefer "Power Source" instead of "Eletricity Production". It's possible that there could be a new form of power source, like some sort of plasma.
Now, before I say "Wood", "Horse", and "Hard Labor"...
A: Power Source - Maybe a combination of wind, solar (both aren't always reliable - solar won't work at night, or very well on a cloudy day), hydro (won't work if a river were to dry up or change course) and thermal. Thermal's probably the best bet for being the most reliable.
As for electric cars, there's one problem... you need to plug the cars in, which means you'll be using more power from the power plants. True, you won't be using gas, but that means more power plants, more maintainance and power plants will need to be replaced more frequently. Sure you could put it in at night, but many people have more than 1 car, and may leave it plugged in all day. Just imagine an entire city doing that. And you're obviously not going to have solar or wind powered cars.
Spoiler :
Also, from a blog on resources - (a map from "New Scientist" I think)
The Amount of Resources Left in the Earth: (I'm assuming this means economically feasible resources. Technically, the earth's core is solid iron, but there's no way you're gonna get that any time soon.) The image shows the current and potential (that is, if all nations consumed resources at 1/2 the US rate, which assumes rapid development) depletion rate. I think that, given countries like China, India, and Brazil (even Russia again in a decade or two), are starting to attain World Power status, the depletion rate might be a bit quicker (i.e., copper might be more like 50 years instead of 61).
(spoiler tag for a super-large image)
Spoiler :
According to this, copper runs out this century. There've already been copper thieves (one stole the copper rainspout from our church recently!
Gold also runs out this century (used for electronics and space technology).
Lead runs out (not that it's exactly the healthiest element out there... then again, we drank out of lead pipes in school and turned out just fine.
Nickle runs out. (Used in batteries)
Silver runs out.
Tin runs out.
Uranium (nuclear power!) - Up to 59 years left. They'll have to start converting nukes into power (talk about turning swords into ploughshares!). Uranium, and a few others, are also listed has having 0% recyclability, for obvious reasons. So, I don't think nuclear power will be a power source for too long, unless Breeder Reactors are used (not sure why they were banned).
Zinc runs out.
Antimony (medical drugs) runs out.
Coal - Not listed, but I've seen anywhere from 200-400 years left.
Oil - Also not listed, but I've seen anywhere from 25-40 years left, but with oil in the carribean, off of Brazil, and the North Pole, it could be 100 years.
B - Transportation - Probably cars, but if oil gets too expensive (and physcologically, I don't think people would be thrilled about having a "nuke in the tank" - just imagine all of the Snopes urban legend articles that would generate!), then bikes, animals, or walking. Currently, there's only a few million horses in the US (many in the mid-atlantic, and in the Great Plains), and half as many donkeys, mules, and llamas (yes, there are llama carts).
I do not see flying cars, since there's just too many issues, like chain reaction mid-air collisions, a flying car running out of fuel in flight, 50,000 flying cars vying for a parking spot at a stadium at once. That's assuming that they're atleast computer controlled. How would police deal with a flying car chase, too?
C - Manufacturing - Don't know. I think that's kind of broad. You'll still have cotten, wool, iron (and steel). But, with depleting resources (or increasing costs), carbon nanotube based objects might help out a bit.
Also, in regards to resource manufacturing and mining, I don't think we'll be mining space asteroids any time soon. Yes, there's the Space Elevator project (which costs maybe half of most nation's GDP), but such an elevator would be SLOW (22,000+ miles would take a few weeks). Plus, there's legal and political implications. Who gets the resource? What about corporate monopolies? I could see wars fought over these things (and someone's bound to use an asteroid as a weapon). Secondly, how do you mine it? Do you bring it into orbit? Do you send a robotic space craft out to mine it? Mine it on-site in orbit? Things like solving lack of gravity and radiation would have to be done first, much less having some sort of manufacturing colony in space already.
One interesting point of note with regards to declining resources. Back in 1500BC-1200BC, the Middle East faced the same problem with depleting tin. That meant an increase in the cost of bronze (swords, farming tools - and thus, the cost of grain went up - hyper-inflation?). That caused the region to descend into a Dark Ages. I was reading a book on Google about different periods of Dark Ages -
2200BC - 1700BC: Caused by climate change (volcanos I think).
(approx.) 1200BC - 700BC: Declining resources.
500AD - 1000AD: Mass Migration (caused essentially by a unified China pushing west)
Thank you for contributing so much to this!
SS-18 ICBM
Oscillator
(spoiler tag for a super-large image)
Spoiler :
Thank you! I've been trying to find this image.
Declining numbers of such elements would mean recycling is more cost-effective. It could make the energy and labor used in (to give one example) breaking down a computer for its elements actually worthwhile. But we could also find new technologies and techniques to mine deeper (possibly damaging the environment more) and extract more of these elements from their origin, or probably new alternative and synthetic materials to replace them.
And if those materials run low then there is no option but to go into space. I think it there would be serious consequences if we get to that point without investing in space technology.
GoodGame
Red, White, & Blue, baby!
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Interesting strike against windmills, though I don't think this is universally true:
http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/07/08/pickens.wind.farm/index.html
Imperialmajesty
Emperor
None, I predict that we would have killed ourselves through one inventive method or another by that time.
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