Accusations of cheating in the highest tournament levels of chess

Here's my take on correcting some of the narrative in here.
Magnus definitely prefers Lichess to chess.com, so the idea that Magnus is like a chess.com insider/shill or whatever doesn't hold water.
If chess.com "took action" a year ago you could have easily complained they were too hasty.
Chess.com has already explained some of their delay - they were waiting for Hans to respond and to do a more thorough investigation besides the automatic process. Hans didn't express remorse. He didn't admit to the cheating he was accused of, instead he admitted to prior cheating which he wasn't accused of. This pissed off chess.com's CEO and led to their thinking that this didn't simply warrant a suspension.
Going after a verified GM and banning him for cheating is a potentially much bigger deal than a random internet troll.
You're all assuming there has been no behind the scenes discussion with FIDE. This is a bad assumption imo. In fact, FIDE has barely been mentioned in this whole thread when they are at the heart of this.
It's easy and cheap to say Magnus handled this poorly, that he should have contacted the proper authorities and gone through the proper procedure. This assumes there is a proper procedure and there are proper authorities. Very bad assumptions.
FIDE is an archaic and corrupt organization that is slow to change, has bumped heads against its top players many times in the past, and is primarily focused on holding onto their own authority/prestige.
FIDE's answer has been "Ken said he didn't cheat so he didn't cheat". It's not hard to imagine that they do not want to publicly verify that chess.com's anti-cheat detection is much stronger than their own.
The potential for cheating has exploded in the last decade with technological improvements allowing stockfish code to fit in a thimble. FIDE has not kept up. It might not even be possible to keep up, but it's certainly not possible if you don't try.
It was widely believed among top players that Hans is a cheater before this blew up. Super GMs invest a ton of time analyzing each other's games and have a much better understanding of when something doesn't make sense than you, I, or an algorithm does.
The clamor for absolute smoking gun court of law proof is not necessarily applicable to all fields or all assertions. If we only punished cheaters who were caught redhanded with a device in their ear, we'd only catch the very worst of the cheaters.
If a magician performs a trick, I do not need to know how the trick was performed to be 100% confident that the magician does not have superhuman powers.
The evidence as I understand it is based on:
- chess.com's algorithm.
- A performance record that suggests he went from a 2400 to a 2700 level player instantly, an unprecedented feat to say the least.
- A confessed history of cheating when he was younger.
- His coach is a cheat.
- Analysis that shows a non-normal distribution of accurate games, with a crazy outlier for how many 90%+ accurate games he's played. *I would say this requires some more details as to how accurate moves are measured (there can be more than 1 top move or top moves can vary based on engine and depth) as well as how it compares to a sampling from other top players. That said, this seems doable and I would hope is being done.*
- Suspicious moves. Arguably the strongest piece of evidence. Basically two types, small moves that don't actually execute on the plan the player has put in motion because that plan can't actually be stopped anyways. Or moves that violate intuitive chess principles, but a full 30+ depth analysis shows don't actually have any danger. These are perhaps the most damning. It's not as simple as "he found a good move, so what". It's that if showed the move to a GM they'd think it was a blunder. He's been accused of making moves like this, and most damning, playing them quickly and giving complete non-answer trolls as to why in interviews.
While it may not be fair to Hans to be banned from tournaments under mere "suspicion", it's also not fair to all the other players to play with a suspected cheat. It dramatically affects how you can play against them. You may want to play uberconservatively for a draw, as you expect him to see through any traps/tricks/tactics you're setting up. It can also send you into a deep think when he plays a strange move "what is stockfish seeing that I'm not".
Magnus is not "right" by virtue of being a chess prodigy, but he's certainly smart enough to expect blowback from this accusation. Ignoring/dodging the issue is easier. Staking your reputation for the good of the sport as you see it, is a selfless act, not a selfish one.
If you have multiple authorities such that a cheater is banned from one platform and not others, or suspended for some period of time and allowed back, you're providing that cheater with ample practice to hone their craft to become undetectable.
Hans is now ~2700. The "assumption" here is that he started cheating heavily around ~2400 to play more like a 2700, most likely by having some key moves/games that would be more like a 3000+ ELO and averaging out. If we take all that to be true, the most vulnerable time for him is the rapid ELO improvement from 2400 to 2700, unofficially "super GM" status. Once he's established as a top player it becomes more difficult to say "there's no way he played this game himself". It becomes more credulous that yeah, he's playing the best moves because he's the best player. It also means at 2700 he can get invited to basically any tournament no matter how selective.
Magnus' reaction wasn't a temper tantrum, but it was intentionally public and dramatic. It was a whistleblower action on FIDE dragging their feet.
If not now, when? If not Magnus, who?
I trust this quote will shrink when I reply to it.

I agree with most of what you say here. I appreciate the additional points not covered and the different perspective.

The bit I disagree with the most is that there is a conflict of interest between Magnus and chess.com due to their millions of dollars valued deal over his app. Whether he prefers to use another site or not doesn't override the fact that they are essentially business partners.

If I were to bold the parts I concur with, it would be almost the entire thing in bold. I will concede points you have I might not judge as correct can be valid and I could be wrong about it, so I'd bold that too. The parts of it I knew already were like 90 percent of it. I hadn't discussed or considered the FIDE involvement or how valid their authority is, so that's something I will definitely chew on.

Magnus I would strongly agree and have already in this thread that it's ultra unusual for him to be unsporting or to single out another player, and while I understand his reasons, the part where I disagree with him is that he singled out Hans by name publicly without proof.

Even when he's right, which hasn't been shown to be true, that's a bad process. It will often lead to innocent people being judged poorly in the court of public opinion.

Allegations on no evidence are slanderous. If they happen to be right, the damage is mitigated and a bad actor gets justice. But it's very much a roulette with mostly innocent people on the wheel, which is immoral as a process.

I am glad Magnus has limited it to just known cheater Hans. But he's opened the flood gates and many others are now also accusing him publicly without evidence either.

If this was done to someone without a record of cheating it would be staggeringly wrong. Here, it's wrong by process and still could be marginally less staggeringly wrong, but still wrong.

I've caught people cheating in games, I've policed ban dodgers, I've had to moderate behavior that happened in private that I was not able to see, by a serial stalker or harasser harming someone on a site I moderated, just not within the boundaries of the site and having to only judge the matter by testimony.

In these situations it is easy to be right by going by track record. People who cheat in games continue to cheat in games. People who ban dodge continue to ban dodge. People who harass and stalk others continue to do so.

But I have also been wrong about a ban dodger, been wrong about a cheater, and had to limit myself to a moderation action saying you are forbidden to contact this person within our site, because I do not have actual evidence of harassment other than being told you are.

You have to factor in the "I could be wrong" factor and that is not being done when you publicly accuse someone, don't know how they cheated, have no evidence of cheating, can't prove it.

It's something people who enforce rules and ban cheaters and moderate bad behavior have to be aware of or they're not doing their jobs right.

Magnus isn't the chess police so it makes sense he'd behave irresponsibly. But it's very bad policy to do this and sets a terrible precedent that it's perfectly fine to do so.

It's always wrong when the allegation is wrong, and it's wrong by process even when the allegation is right. It's just something we can't do.

This is off topic, but I saw how the mob went after ProJared when he was accused by 3 people of wrongdoing. They savaged him publicly for months. When he hired lawyers and gathered evidence of his innocence, and quietly prepared his case, his reputation tanked, people called him a criminal, they harassed him and his friends, they went after all his business partners.

Then when he showed proof that those allegations were untrue, one by one, with screenshots proving the allegations were wrong in the words of his own accusers, and he could absolutely prove beyond all doubt he was not at a particular E3 panel with the person accusing him there, and that she mistook him for a very different human being, that proved he was absolutely innocent. The two accusers deleted their allegations and had no rebuttal to ProJared's defense at all. And the third person had absolutely no response to Jared's defense there. All three allegations were indeed false.

Allegations were all it took to destroy an innocent man. Allegations made without evidence.

And the public judged him based off of the allegations alone, and by his silence while he correctly got a lawyer because this is serious business, and slowly got to the bottom of why they were accusing him in the first place and gathering all the receipts of all their interactions with him and made it all public.

And I've seen the internet do this to several innocent people.

People tend to act like they're on a jury even when they never get to be in the courthouse, never get to see the actual evidence behind any allegation, never get to hear the defense, and then we act like the jury is wrong when we weren't there if we disagree with the call.

The mob is often wrong. And it thinks it is right because most people agree with the mob. But popularity is not the basis of truth. Sometimes the truth is unpopular or doesn't fit a satisfying narrative of this guy everyone hates is the bad guy we think he is.

It feels good to accuse and be right, and no one ever wants to take responsibility when the accusation goes out, and it's not right.

Somehow it still has to be right, and that's why you can't trust the mob.

A person can admit they got something wrong, sometimes. That's hard for individuals.

The mob never admits it is wrong, because they've got numbers on their side and someone will always make a specious argument saying why they're still right. And there's no need to ever admit you're wrong when you control the narrative by majority.

It's why I am always wary of teams. The team is always right, even when it's wrong. Their judgment is always right, and we don't need to see the evidence personally or be part of the trial to know the jury who knows more than we do got it wrong.

It's why I feel democracy is on its last legs. We just aren't responsible enough with the power of the popular opinion.

This is all a side note to the above note that Magnus is wrong to publicly accuse without evidence. It's not directed at drewisfat, to be clear. It's just my supporting reasons for being so opposed to what Magnus did here.

Keeping in mind I highly respect Magnus, was in his camp and thought he had a slam dunk case until he didn't, still vastly prefer him to Hans, and think this is the only thing he's ever really done wrong. And I think Hans is a cheat.

It's just that he's violating a pretty sacred principle for me. Maybe it is just my own principle, but I feel like it really should be everyone's.
 

Play Magnus is worth 82 million dollars apparently. Chess.com is absorbing it.


Play Magnus was developed by a company owned by Magnus Carlsen personally.

Thus the potential for conflict of interest. Not proven, but why I find the timing questionable. It's irresponsible for them to be colluding wrt cheating allegations if it happened, because it will always be seen as corrupt, even if it were innocent or coincidental by timing.

And I don't know if this was actually a conflict of interest or if it just appears that way. I don't know. A lot of us don't know a lot of things.

It's still easy to draw conclusions before having any evidence. It's hard to hold back and say this can look fishy, but I do not know, and I hope someone finds out.

So when there's an 82.9 million dollar business partnership between Magnus and chess.com and Magnus accuses Hans and Chess.com bans hans a few days later

That's visibly potentially problematic.

It isn't known for a fact it is corrupt. It appears so.

And my supporting argument for why it's a bad look for chess.com here explains why it looks bad even without considering the conflict of interest because it's either incompetent or it looks corrupt.

Even assuming Magnus and his app and this merger have nothing to do with it, chess.com made very questionable moves here.

It shouldn't take 2 years to catch someone stealing from you when you're supposedly great at finding cheaters with your cheat detection in hosted rated tournaments with prize money when the guy is someone chess.com previously caught cheating.

Publicly accusing Hans just after Carlsen did therefore looks corrupt.

Maybe it isn't, maybe it's just staggeringly indefensibly stupid. But man does it look bad.

Hans looks bad, Chess.com looks bad. Magnus' behavior was wrong.

There's a lot of wrong to go around here. And it fits zero people's narrative.

It doesn't make for a satisfying story when everyone is wrong. But sometimes everyone is.
 
I count myself among the wrong. I thought Magnus wouldn't accuse Hans unless he had proof.

I was wrong about that and assumed Hans was guilty for like 2 straight weeks.

I'm confessing to being wrong to do that. It's okay. Human beings get stuff wrong a lot. It's part of being human.

I trusted Magnus' track record of being a good sport, versus Hans' track record of being a known cheat.

Easy mistake to make. But it's one I should have known better, because I used to be a cheat catcher and a mod. That's rookie for me. But I am human too.
 
It also has come out that Carlsen was not the only top player harboring doubts about Niemann. Top Russian GM Ian Nepomniachtchi, who very well could succeed Carlsen as world champion, revealed on his YouTube channel he was “quite unhappy” when he learned Niemann had been a last-minute addition to the Sinquefield tournament and asked the organizers for “extra measures to be taken” to keep things on the up-and-up. The Chess.com analysis found that several of the online games where Niemann allegedly used illegal assistance from computer programs were against the Russian star in June 2020.
“Maybe it’s me having trust issues after playing someone banned from Chess.com, and someone you would strongly suspect when playing online, but I think [he’s] the only young player I was slightly unsure about [given] his recent progress,” Nepomniachtchi said. “It seemed weird to me.”


Seems to me that Hans was already a known "cheater" within the chess community and there was suspicion regarding hes meteoric rise
Iam guessing that this problem was likely brought up by numerous players and Magnus likely felt that nothing was being done or worse Hans had inside assistance
Might have been better to keep quiet, like the fishing scandal cheaters eventually got so brazen and obvious leading to them being easily caught red handed.'

Hans edgelord personality also didnt help him win any friends either.
 
Always free to correct me, I didn't know he had recently sold his app to chess.com. I'm not sure the timeline matches up with how long Hans has been under suspicion. Knowing it, I would surmise that they both independently came to that conclusion before discussing it together. (Then again business deals could have been in talks for a long time before announced, so point taken).

The disconnect we're having is going from there's no smoking gun proof to there's no evidence. There is a ton of evidence. It may very well rise to the level of proof. There's certainly proof that Hans has cheated online (he literally confessed). I don't think it's unreasonable at all for suspicious OTB results/behavior matched with a history of cheating online to be enough to warrant a ban from professional chess, especially when this is occurring alongside an absolutely meteoric rating rise. Like you said, cheaters with a track record of cheating tend to continue to cheat. Like I said, I would not want to have to play against such a player. Technically Magnus only said that he doesn't know what Hans is capable of, and that he thinks he's cheated much more recently than he's admitted. So he passes your standard of only alleging what he can prove.
It may very well be that Magnus has seen enough proof to know Hans has cheated OTB, but he hasn't alleged that directly because he believes chess.com's statistical arguments (and legal team) makes a stronger case than a GM explaining why certain moves don't make any sense.
He's only 19 and shouldn't have spent the last few years cheating online if he valued a potential future career. What's really being argued here is whether online chess is so unserious that it's fine to cheat in and shouldn't affect your OTB reputation. That distinction seems insane to me, especially if there was prize money involved.
It also doesn't really make sense that the greatest chess prodigy in history (Hans Niemann if playing honestly OTB) would cheat part-time alongside of that. Speedrunning communities have banned players who cheated despite no money being on the line. They've banned people who got caught cheating in different games. And when they haven't, they often paid the price of having repeat cheaters.

His edgelord behavior in interviews covers up that he doesn't have answers to the obvious questions. In addition to the now infamous "chess speaks for itself" there was another one where he said "it seemed like the intuitive move", in a game where he intentionally traps his knight on the rim - very unintuitive. And in the most recent game against Magnus, where Magnus played an opening he never plays (and didn't play well at all) he was questioned on how he was so prepared for an opening Magnus never plays. He quickly responded that Magnus does play that opening and cited a specific game/opponent/year when he played that opening. However, that game doesn't appear to exist. In other words, he's not failing these interviews because he's an unlikeable troll - he's failing these interrogations because he has no good honest answers to the questions he's being given, and he's covering that up with an adversarial, extreme personality.

Offtopic stuff:
It's not setting a new precedent in chess. Chess has a long dark history of top players accusing other top players of cheating especially with the cold war, and Fischer of course being crazy. There's also a long history of actual cheating, and FIDE covering it up.
I don't believe Magnus isn't interested in defending his title because his heart isn't in it and he's like retiring. The world championship format is terrible, results in months of prep work, opposition research, and brings boring/flawed games. FIDE has failed to find a consensus to improve it, and it feels like a protest action against FIDE from Magnus. For context, in the prior championship when he played Fabi, every single game wound up being a draw, because Magnus knew the tiebreakers were rapid games where he'd have the advantage, and indeed he did and then won. In the most recent series it started off draws and then there was ONE good game. After that, because the pressure was on Nepo to win multiple games he played desperately and poorly. Having one good game out of 24 classical games is a terrible track record. Then being asked to play the same player he very recently beat in this format (pandemic adjusted schedule) is pretty meh.
While I understand this completely, I'm actually much more upset at Magnus dropping the title voluntarily than refusing to play Hans. We're about to have a clear disconnect between 'world champion' and 'best player in the world' which is not good for the sport. It may speak to the timing though of him calling out Hans, while there is still no such disconnect and we still associate some extra (perhaps undeserved) prestige to 'world champion'.
 
It's easy and cheap to say Magnus handled this poorly, that he should have contacted the proper authorities and gone through the proper procedure. This assumes there is a proper procedure and there are proper authorities. Very bad assumptions.
FIDE is an archaic and corrupt organization that is slow to change, has bumped heads against its top players many times in the past, and is primarily focused on holding onto their own authority/prestige.
All true unfortunately
 
It may very well be that Magnus has seen enough proof to know Hans has cheated OTB, but he hasn't alleged that directly because he believes chess.com's statistical arguments (and legal team) makes a stronger case than a GM explaining why certain moves don't make any sense.
Unless the statistical arguments are made outside that 72 page document linked earlier they are pretty weak. No real methodology, no p values or confidence intervals or anything.
 
While I understand this completely, I'm actually much more upset at Magnus dropping the title voluntarily than refusing to play Hans. We're about to have a clear disconnect between 'world champion' and 'best player in the world' which is not good for the sport.

The sport will be just fine. I’d wager the sport will be forced to evolve thanks to Magnus’s departure from the WC title aspirations. Two points of contention. The long time investment by world champion and contender required to participate in the world championship. It takes 6-9 months to prepare for a single match, for a single opponent. Magneto did this for 10 years. Doesn’t want to anymore.

Second point is the classical time format. Which can be boring to watch (to most people) and leads to draws. Magnus’s proposition was to mix WC up with some rapid and blitz games, because those generate the highest interest among the viewers. Pepper it with the right commentator, and, suddenly, watching chess becomes as entertaining as watching boxing. You still get long time formats, but as the WC match progresses, games become faster and faster.

FIDE said they’re not interested to review the possibility of altering world championship in the way Magnus is proposing. So Magnus gave up on FIDE and focuses instead on becoming a first human to reach 2900 elo rating. At the moment there really isn’t anyone who can compete with him consistently anyway. So, why would he expend energy to prove himself against One weaker opponent? He’d rather not dump 9 months of his life down this drain, stay in the wider pool of players to have better progression and keep in touch with latest theoretical trends.

FIDE is going to have two weaker players (Ian Nepomniachi & Ding Liren) battle it out for the title. Soon.

My point is: if FIDE turns out so archaic, unwilling to progress with the trends, then it deserves to be left in the cold by world champion. And we deserve to have a world champion determined by rating. That is happening anyway. Before Carlsen became world champion he reached the highest rating in the world. Then he went to claim world championship title. The match was a formality. The rating is, and always was, a foundation.
 
Due to slander etc.

Not exactly! Dlugy is suing chess.com for releasing private confidential e-mails between him and chess.com, where he confesses to cheating in Titled Tuesday championship and where chess.com bans him from all subsequent money tournaments. It’s a rule with chess.com - If you cheated and get caught - you have to confess to cheating in order to be able to play again.
 
Not exactly! Dlugy is suing chess.com for releasing private confidential e-mails between him and chess.com, where he confesses to cheating in Titled Tuesday championship and where chess.com bans him from all subsequent money tournaments. It’s a rule with chess.com - If you cheated and get caught - you have to confess to cheating in order to be able to play again.
There is also the part where he says it was a false confession, to avert permabanning.
 
Its the GM that interviewed Hans after hes win, literally being able to explain Hans own move better then him was embrassing
He considers that Hans very likely cheated. But due to the lack clear evidence stops short of saying for certain

Alejandro Ramirez: "It does seem very likely that Hans cheated over-the-board."​

Asked whether he believes Niemann cheated when playing over-the-board, Ramirez said: "It does seem very likely."
Ramirez interviewed players at Sinquefield after their games, and it was he who interviewed Niemann after his win against Carlsen and after his game against Alireza Firouzja.
"The circumstantial evidence that has gathered against Hans seems - specifically on him having cheated over-the-board - so strong that it's very difficult for me to ignore it. ... From my own experience and my own expertise for these things, it does seem very likely he has cheated over the board. ... Am I sure of this? No, I am definitely not sure of this. ...
[But] the thing about Hans is that his improvement seems strange. ... It's strange and it is something worth looking into. And hopefully we find useful tools that will help us in the future to determine better whether a player is playing like a human or not.

 
Unless the statistical arguments are made outside that 72 page document linked earlier they are pretty weak. No real methodology, no p values or confidence intervals or anything.
if i'm not mistaken, the "accuracy" was also using multiple engines, with any one of them giving the same move hans picked counting. whereas if you picked only one engine (any engine) separately, the accuracy outcomes wouldn't be so high as frequently.
 
There is also the part where he says it was a false confession, to avert permabanning.

Of course he does. Smartest cookie in the jar. The only thing that tells what actually happened is the existence of e-mails, where he confessed and described in detail how he cheated.

Notice, how in one of the e-mails he offers Chess.com the “skin” of one of his students, who fed him engine moves, as if none of this was Dlugy’s, the trainer’s, responsibility. Classy move right there.

 
Of course he does. Smartest cookie in the jar. The only thing that tells what actually happened is the existence of e-mails, where he confessed and described in detail how he cheated.

Notice, how in one of the e-mails he offers Chess.com the “skin” of one of his students, who fed him engine moves, as if none of this was Dlugy’s, the trainer’s, responsibility. Classy move right there.

Class goes all-around in this affair, I think :) Including chess.com buying a property of Magnus and shamelessly acting as if there isn't a gigantic conflict of interest. At least the papers (eg Washington Post) made a note of that.
 
Speaking of Hans' analytical skills, his latest interview shows some of those (and is all-around pleasant) :)


Afaik the bearded guy has implied (not here, in some show of his) Hans is cheating likely otb too, so it's not that easy for the Hans to remain civil - but he did.
 
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