Ahmadinejad "wins" Iran presidential election

[Arwon]

Honestly, at this point there's as much evidence to suggest that the Iranian elections were rigged as there was to suggest the same in the Kenyan elections last year, and I'm seeing allot of similarities. Unpopular incumbent, challenger with an ethnic base, the incumbent re-elected by rigging the polls, challenger contesting the results, etc.

The difference is that most people didn't give a crap about Kenya, while with Iran we've got a crop of idiots going "I'm so cool and culturally relativistical and stuff, I can say Ahmajinedaddy is so cool and not a Holocaust denier at all and cool and stuff! Aren't I a special, individual person, pay no attention to the herd of other dupes behind the curtain."

I seem to recall weeks of street protests and allegations of rigging and dodgy doings in the last Mexican presidential election as well?

 

[Masada]

Didn't America have large street protests when Bush was elected?

 

[JerichoHill]

Didn't America have large street protests when Bush was elected?

Not really...

 

[Cheezy the Wiz]

that is kind of interesting and, if true, does seem fishy. But then again iranians don't necessarily vote along ethnic lines and mousavi doesn't necessarily enjoy any particular popularity amongst azeri. I wouldn't like to say definately the election was totally above board, i don't think many elections anywhere in the world are completely fair and square, but i am still not convinced.

As to the idea that the real power in iran is not held by the president or the members of parliment but rather by the guys in 'nice hats' is much to simplistic and actually not true. You could say the same of the US that the real power is not held by the president, senators and so on but by the trumps, rockerfelleres etc.. and it would probably be more true.

Iranian politics is more complex than that. Definately there is a high degree of sincere devotion to the main religion in Iran and that certainly gives the clerics influence in that what they say and think and write is given serious attention by civil servants, elected officials and the public alike. But that is not really the same as some kind of secret machievellian dictatorship. Consider this; one of the four candidates in this last presidential election was a cleric (ie one of the guys in the nice hats) (and a reformist candidate at that!) mr kharroubi and guess what? not only didn't he win he had the least votes of all the candidates...

Okay okay i can hear you thinking but what about khameni isn't he supreme leader? Doesn't he have a 'nice hat' doesn't everybody have to do what he says? The supreme leader has a formal position similar to that of the monarch in british politics which is to say head of the state religion, head of the armed forces and head of government. But like the british monarch in practice what this translates into is a sort of team mascot, a figure head, who has some influence according only to his abilities to persuade those with actual power but not more than that.

Actually in formal terms the supreme leader has rather less power than the british monarch because unlike the british monarch he can be fired from the job and his children don't get any right to take over the position after he perishes.

In practice the supreme leader does offer advice and exert influence a good deal more than the british monarch has (at least in recent times) and he is listened to but there is no mysterious dictat forcing obediance... just as often his advice is politiely ignored...

Of course other organs of the state don't have any absolute power either such as the civil service, president, ministers of parliment etc. Rather iranian politics is a soup of commitees, agencies, councils and other positions with diverse people with differing opinions on what should be and how it should be done who try and persuade and influence things as they see fit, sometimes for their own selfish wants, sometimes for the greater good. Really rather like the politics of any democratic country.

This is an excellent post. Thank you.

 

[Imperialmajesty]

My question is, why didn't he win his Azeri base? That, among other things is a question I have to ask. Granted, maybe ethnicity isn't as strong an electoral motivator as in the US.


However, I am no fan of Mr. Mousavi, who has blood on his hands for the slaughter of 30,000 prisoners, along with other atrocities. The whole White versus Black, good versus evil, Mousavi versus Ahmadinejad things is a resounding fallacy.

 

[GenMarshall]

Didn't America have large street protests when Bush was elected?

Only in Washington DC during the inaguration of Bush for his first term.

 

[Formaldehyde]

Didn't America have large street protests when Bush was elected?

There have been street protests ever since GWB invaded Iraq, and they haven't stopped althugh they rarely make the national or international press. They did gather more momentum right after GWB got reelected.

Of course, they don't seem to be near as hostile as some of the televised protests I've seem from Iraq. But then again, John Kerry wasn't advocating that people openly protest the result of the election, while claiming he only wants them to do so 'peacefully' even though it is clearly anything but. He knew how to lose gracefully...

 

[GinandTonic]

Formally yes the guardian council functions very much as the house of lords does in the UK. Well the house of lords are almost exclusively landed aristocrats whereas the gaurdian council is a bunch of senior clerics.

Sure if you define almost exclusively as meaning < 5%

 

[dutchfire]

Is there any solid proof that the election was rigged already? I'm still mostly seeing speculation about that.

 

[sourboy]

The claim that it was a "land-slide" victory is what is drawing question on the legitimacy. It's either a propaganda move to create stability, or if the vote count reflects an actual land-slide, likely a conspiracy.

Either way, sucks if he was re-elected. He's the "Iranian Bush".

 

[Formaldehyde]

That seems to be the real issue here. How popular was Ahmadinejad. Perhaps we should take a trip in the way-back machine to 2006 before all this broughahaha to try to find out:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2006/jun/21/iran.ewenmacaskill

The popularity of Iran's controversial leader, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is surging almost a year after he unexpectedly won a closely contested presidential election, Iranian officials and western diplomats said yesterday. Attributing his success to his populist style and fortnightly meet-the-people tours of the country, the sources said that as matters stood, Mr Ahmadinejad was the clear favourite to win a second term in 2009. The perception that the president was standing up to the US on the nuclear issue was also boosting his standing.

"He's more popular now than a year ago. He's on the rise," said Nasser Hadian-Jazy, a professor of political science at Tehran University. "I guess he has a 70% approval rating right now. He portrays himself as a simple man doing an honest job. He's comfortable communicating with ordinary people."

While there are no reliable national opinion polls in Iran, western diplomats acknowledged that support for Mr Ahmadinejad is growing, defying predictions after last June's election that he would not last more than three months.

Mr Ahmadinejad's rising fortunes run counter to US attempts to isolate Iran, which it brands a rogue state. US officials have described the Iranian president as a threat to world peace and claim that he faces a popular insurrection at home.

Sound familiar? If the US really wants to see change in Iran, the last thing they should be doing is supporting the opposition candidate...

 

[biggamer132]

Just found a commentary on the election that has some interesting points...

http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/article.asp?ID=10885

I dunno if i can believe that mousavi would work as a agent for US imperialism even unwittlingly. But who knows?

I was not aware that members of the Basij played Civ.

Juan Cole does an excellent job laying down all of the evidence for a rigged election. Scroll down to " Stealing the Iranian Election". Considering that every indication from inside the country showed that Mousavi had a huge groundswell of support in the major cities and was shown having a substantial lead in opinion polls in the days before the election, the idea that Ahmadinejad would win by as wide a margin as he did, including in the heartland of Mousavi's and Karroubi's support bases, is absolutely ridiculous and goes completely against every trend in Iranian voting history. I think the statements by people who saw unopened ballot boxes ordered to be burned and government employees denied entry into their offices while Ahmadinejad's staunchest supporters were in charge of vote counting also make a compelling case. Worst of all, I don't see how a Third World country counted 40 million paper ballots while some of the polls were still open. If you think this was a fair election and that Tehran is under martial law because of a handful of sore losers, I and my relatives who've managed to get around government filters to contact me have some subprime loans you might be interested in.

Latest word is they've started shooting people in the north.

 

[The Tollan]

Apparently no international observers were allowed to monitor the election.

Were any observers from one of the non-Khamenei/Ahmadinejad camp allowed to monitor the voting and the counting of the ballots? If not, then there is considerable reason to not assume the results must be true.

The results could be accurate or they could be fabricated. No definitive proof exists either way but that is the regime's fault.

My question is, why didn't he win his Azeri base? That, among other things is a question I have to ask. Granted, maybe ethnicity isn't as strong an electoral motivator as in the US.

This is a fair point. Ethnicity is heavily correlated with voting in the U.S. but even if it is less important in Iran it would seem odd for Mousavi to lose with the Azeris.

 

[biggamer132]

Apparently no international observers were allowed to monitor the election.

Were any observers from one of the non-Khamenei/Ahmadinejad camp allowed to monitor the voting and the counting of the ballots? If not, then there is considerable reason to not assume the results must be true.

The results could be accurate or they could be fabricated. No definitive proof exists either way but that is the regime's fault.



This is a fair point. Ethnicity is heavily correlated with voting in the U.S. but even if it is less important in Iran it would seem odd for Mousavi to lose with the Azeris.

Mousavi's campaign complained that thousands of his volunteer election monitors were denied entry to polling places, despite the law stating that each campaign could have a monitor present at each polling place.

 

[Miles Teg]

This is a fair point. Ethnicity is heavily correlated with voting in the U.S. but even if it is less important in Iran it would seem odd for Mousavi to lose with the Azeris.

By all accounts, it's more important actually. Also of interest, Mehdi Karroubi, an ethnic Lur, is supposed to have done pathetically in his home province, gaining less than 1% of the vote. This is odd because that's his base of support, and he got 17% there last election. He hasn't done anything that would trigger that massive of a downfall, since the Lurs have a big history of supporting favorite son candidates.

 

[choxorn]

Hmm, so the information is getting blocked, the counting was done by supporters of Ahmad-whatever-the-hell-his-name-is, and the polls are not representative of the elections.

Nope, nothing fishy about that.

 

[Formaldehyde]

I think the statements by people who saw unopened ballot boxes ordered to be burned...

Latest word is they've started shooting people in the north.

I just heard Khomeini has just been seen eating a Jewish baby live on Iran TV.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j1SSLTI28ydxcun0zvJWLBeNmV0A

"We are waiting to see. We don't have enough facts to make a firm judgment," he said.

Gee, common sense being expressed from a US government administration official. Who would have thought we would ever see that again?

 

[biggamer132]

I just heard Khomeini has just been seen eating a Jewish baby live on Iran TV.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j1SSLTI28ydxcun0zvJWLBeNmV0A

Gee, common sense being expressed from a US government administration official. Who would have thought we would ever see that again?

I agree with you completely. People being beaten and killed for protesting a fraudulent election is hilarious.

There's plenty of photographic and video evidence of what's going on right now.

 

[Miles Teg]

Gee, common sense being expressed from a US government administration. Who would have thought?

You're looking at it wrong. The White House, when run properly, is caution and gravitas personified. Much like a court system, they don't act until the accused is guilty beyond a shadow of a doubt. Maybe the last eight years have caused people to forget that.

We here on the internet are of a lower order. We use our wits, instinct and the pervasive rotten smell leaking out of Iran, and it becomes pretty clear that the balance of evidence weighs against Ahmadinejad's regime. Of course, we do have to take into account people's natural tendency towards drama. I mean, for Chrissakes, some people still believe that Bush stole Florida. But all evidence suggests that Iran manipulated the vote count.

 

[Ayatollah So]

I think this is another case of the western media blithely assuming that by talking to the westernized middle class they have an accurate picture of the mood of the country.

That's what I thought at first, before the counting even began. But then...

Juan Cole does an excellent job laying down all of the evidence for a rigged election. [...] the idea that Ahmadinejad would win by as wide a margin as he did, including in the heartland of Mousavi's and Karroubi's support bases, is absolutely ridiculous and goes completely against every trend in Iranian voting history.

It's not just the numbers, it's the pattern. If US election officials had said that Bush had won Texas with 75% and New York with 65%, we'd immediately recognize that for BS too. Plus, Juan Cole is a god.