Civil War in Iran

civver_764

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This is looking to be very, very bad.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/0...ange-in-iran-as-deadly-protests-continue.html

President Trump took aim at the hard-line regime in Iran Monday, tweeting it is "time for a change" and blasting the Obama administration's controversial nuclear deal as the death toll from protests around the Islamic republic rose to 12.

Trump – who has clashed with Irannian President Hassan Rouhani in recent days as the protests have continued – opened 2018 with a Twitter broadside at Tehran's authoritarian mullahs. Iran “is failing at every level despite” the controversial nuclear deal the Obama administration made with Iran in 2015, Trump tweeted.

“The great Iranian people have been repressed for many years. They are hungry tor food [and] for freedom. Along with human rights, the wealth of Iran is being looted,” Trump said. “TIME FOR CHANGE!”

The deal Trump referenced included the Obama administration's unfreezing of more than $100 billion in Iranian assets and cash payments of more than $1 billion for Iran's pledge not to pursue nuclear weapons for at least 10 years.

On the streets of Iran, thousands have called for the theocratic regime to end, in a reprise of the so-called "Green Movement" of 2009, when protesters clashed over elections and called fruitlessly on the U.S. to support their cause. That protest movement ended with the arrest of hundreds of students, political figures and dissidents.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, said Monday he wishes the Iranian people “success in their noble quest for freedom.”

Without elaborating, state TV reported that 10 people were killed during clashes Sunday night. Two other demonstrators were killed in a protest in western Iran late Saturday, according to the Associated Press.

"Some armed protesters tried to take over some police stations and military bases but faced serious resistance from security forces," state TV reported.

Later Monday, state TV said six people were killed in Tuyserkan, about 200 miles southwest of Tehran. Three other people were killed in Shahinshahr, south of Iran’s capital. The location of the 10th person’s death was not disclosed, according to the Associated Press.

Earlier Monday, the semi-official ILNA news agency quoted Hedayatollah Khademi, a representative for the town of Izeh, as saying two people died there Sunday night. It was not clear if they were included in the state TV toll. Izeh is about 500 miles south of Tehran.

Analysts have suggested that the widespread protests have begun as a way to challenge Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.

Demonstrators have focused on Iran’s economy as the country faces inflation and high unemployment.

Trump also said the U.S. is “watching very closely for human rights violations” as the protests continue.

Iran has blocked access to Instagram as well as Telegram, a popular messaging app used by activists to organize demonstrations.

The recent protests are the largest show of dissent since the Green Movement rallies of 2009, the BBC reported. Then, millions of demonstrators rallied in opposition of the controversial election of then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Over the past week there have been widespread protests across Iran. Now people are dying. And we've got all sorts of people shilling for war with Iran.

This comes just after this happened: https://www.axios.com/scoop-u-s-and-israel-reach-joint-plan-to-counter-iran-2520518565.html

The U.S. and Israel have reached a joint strategic work plan to counter Iranian activity in the Middle East. U.S. and Israeli officials said the joint understandings were reached in a secret meeting between senior Israeli and U.S. delegations at the White House on December 12th.

This has all come up out of nowhere, and definitely smells of a Zionist backed coup. And now they are trying to meme this into another "humanitarian crisis." Just look at this cast of characters who are all spouting the same message:

Spoiler :


It's possible that Trump is all talk here. I hope so. We elected him to put America first, not Israel first. A war with Iran could easily escalate into a war with Russia and eventually WW3. It is not in our interest at all to get involved here.
 
Yep. More City people vs. Country people. Whether it goes somewhere or gets stamped out only to flare up again a few years down the line is the real question...
 
Apparently the size of the protests is nowhere near the size of the 2009 protests, so talking of a "civil war in Iran" is very premature.
 
It is about time that a new war is started and get some millions of refugees moving towards Russia and Europe to stir up things as well there.

After all the Syria war is running on her last legs.
 
It is about time that a new war is started and get some millions of refugees moving towards Russia and Europe to stir up things as well there.

After all the Syria war is running on her last legs.

Don't worry, apparently Iraq is going to be less and less habitable due to climate change induced sand storms, so we won't even need wars to get millions of refugees on the road again.
 
That's not entirely fair though. Iran has supported terrorist organizations in other countries in the region. I agree that Israel is a bigger problem but that doesn't make Iran less of a problem on its own.
 
They (Iran) are also probably still salty from that time the United States orchestrated a coup of their democratically elected President and then replaced him with a brutal dictator.
 
They (Iran) are also probably still salty from that time the United States orchestrated a coup of their democratically elected President and then replaced him with a brutal dictator.

I do not have enough fingers on my hand to count all the times the US decided to overthrow a democratically elected president and replace him with a repressive dictator

 
They (Iran) are also probably still salty from that time the United States orchestrated a coup of their democratically elected President and then replaced him with a brutal dictator.
Not to mention that whole Iran Air Flight 655 thing, that one was a doozie!
While the Republicans are still bitter from that time that the Iranians kicked out their legitimately installed dictator. I mean, how DARE they express self-determination!
 
In the region which has Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, Iran seems to be distant fourth as a troublemaker.
I suspect proximity is all that puts Iran behind Turkey in you mind. From half way around the world, Iran is definitely the bigger problem.

J
 
The Kurdistan issue is plaguing Syria Iraq and Turkey and the main culprit in it escalading is Turkey. Proximity is not the only reason to put Iran behind.
 
When the arab spring was going on, I was naive enough to think that it would usher in a new era of liberal arab democracies, but instead we got a lost generation in the arab world, failed states, slave trade and growing ethnic hatred in the west. So while it would be nice for Iran to be more democratic and secular, I hope this all fizzles away.
 
The Arab spring worked in Tunisia. So it's not all bad.
 
It looks like a random uncontrolled unrest...open as opportunity for every player in the Middle East.... including further reformations of President Rouhani....

From: https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/or...otests-reaction-reactions-future-demands.html
(good reading BTW, the popular smartphone app Telegram in Iran playing an important communication role)

"Eyewitness accounts as well as videos suggest that the demonstrators are overwhelmingly young. One unnamed Tehran-based social scientist told Iranian journalist Borzou Daragahi, “This is the new generation that has taken the streets this time. The '90s generation! A generation who doesn't recognize any limits. A generation who has no candidate in the race!" The social scientist added, “There is no space for appeasement in the current demonstrations, no signal to [Reformist ex-President Mohammad] Khatami, nor to [Mir Hossein] Mousavi. … What are these people looking for? There is no resemblance to the events of 2009.” Mousavi, a Reformist who protested his 2009 presidential election defeat to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, remains under house arrest.

Indeed, the absence of specific Reformist demands such as the release of Mousavi suggests that the protesters have either become more radicalized in their demands and/or simply don’t belong to the generation that experienced the events of 2009 as adults and subsequently turned more pragmatic — as seen in the high voter participation in both 2013 and 2017 that followed the widespread claims of vote fraud following the 2009 elections. While the prospect that a new generation of Iranians has lost belief in the political establishment’s ability to at the very least channel their grievances is a wake-up call for the Reformist camp, and perhaps a new and unique challenge for the authorities, it also means that there is a wide and perhaps growing disconnect with political elites".
 
That's not entirely fair though. Iran has supported terrorist organizations in other countries in the region.

That might have something to do with western invasions of two neighbouring countries...

On the OP, the protests seem quite sporadic and small scale, and I expect they will fizzle out rather than escalate.
 
That might have something to do with western invasions of two neighbouring countries...

On the OP, the protests seem quite sporadic and small scale, and I expect they will fizzle out rather than escalate.


Yes
So far it is only small potatoes of young people, connected by social media with the rest with the world, and very much aware that their economical prospects for a more prosperous life are heavily hindered by the huge financial cost of the ideological struggle of Shiite Iran against so many Sunni around them incl in recent years ISIS recruiting like hell.

Kind of silly that all those fossil energy dollars are converted in weaponry and destruction since half a century instead of invests in a better place to live.

But perhaps that is the geopolitical background of foreign interventions
just bleed them until fossil is of lesser importance and climate desertification takes over....
 
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