Alternate History Thread V

[Kraznaya]

Why not go the other way and screw with the Hapsburgs to give the Hungarians butterflies for strong heirs?

 

[bombshoo]

Why not go the other way and screw with the Hapsburgs to give the Hungarians butterflies for strong heirs?

In that case, I'd remove some of Maximilian's ancestors and try to create some dynastic infighting. This could either weaken Austria enough to make them act out and get excommunicated and prompt a Hungarian conquest or enable the two to be tied together by marriage but with a Hungarian dynasty in charge.

 

[Dreadnought]

I have had a nagging thought recently, and I'm hoping that some of you critically acclaimed historians might help me out.

The War of the League of Cambrai, fought in the 16 century, was an attempt to curb The Most Serene's power in northern Italy. My question is: what effect did the war have on Venetian expansion, and what are the possibilities involving an alternate history concerning the war? Could Venice have grown stronger and larger, perhaps becoming more of a regional power, or was there no real opportunity for Venice at this stage?

 

[Dachs]

I think they'd still probably lose against the Ottomans, unfortunately, but they might be able to minimize the damage.

Minimize it how?

However, I personally find the "let's gang rape the Ottomans" scenario a little overdone now so if we could just weaken them enough to make Hungary stronger I'd be for that.

Hahahahahaha it's funny if you read this combined with the argument a few pages ago.

Edit: Thinking about, really the best way to curb Ottoman strength actually seems to be to reduce their ridiculous manpower at this time compared to Europe. Maybe give them a nice plague, but it would be hard to make that not affect the Europeans.

Nah. Religious cleavages within Islam. Bedreddinites and Kızılbaş, added to the truly atrocious government the Ottomans had in Anatolia and the latent social discontent among the populace there. Kick off some of the same kind of warfare that was going on in the first decade of the 16th century. It means a territorial reduction too in addition to a long (assuming you really do want to put checks on the Ottomans) war, but have the central government win out in the end. Anatolia and Thrace get more depopulated (than they already are; don't overstate the Ottoman state's population advantage, much of its territory is comprised of areas that are pisspoor and sparsely populated) and the Ottomans are checked for another generation.

I have had a nagging thought recently, and I'm hoping that some of you critically acclaimed historians might help me out.

The War of the League of Cambrai, fought in the 16 century, was an attempt to curb The Most Serene's power in northern Italy. My question is: what effect did the war have on Venetian expansion, and what are the possibilities involving an alternate history concerning the war? Could Venice have grown stronger and larger, perhaps becoming more of a regional power, or was there no real opportunity for Venice at this stage?

The Venetians won the first part of the War of the League of Cambrai, then switched sides and won the second part. The war ended with the Venetians being able to hold their pre-1508 gains in Northern Italy.

 

[North King]

Minimize it how?

Not die... beyond that, minimize their gains to stuff beyond the Carpathians and the Danube. How do they do this? By not losing badly in battle. That would require probably a lot of assistance from outside (more than the Europeans gave in the past), and more than a little luck.

 

[qoou]

Nobody needs to assimilate anyone. Rule them the old-fashioned and (later) nationalism-suppressive way!

Most countries have had significant troubles with that . Poor Basques (along with most other Spanish separationist groups) are the only separatists not getting any sympathy from people on the other side of the globe...

 

[Thlayli]

In terms of stronger Hungary PoD's, I find Mongolian Redirection to be very rewarding. The long-term impact of the Mongolian pillaging of Hungary (one of those ironic steppe-nation pillaging an ex-steppe-nation things) is sometimes underestimated.

Par example, a Mongolian conquest of Constantinople and the religious insanity that would follow (both from Orthodox Byzantine refugees, anti-Mongol Crusades, and whatever importations/conversions the Mongols bring) would be fun.

 

[qoou]

It's only trouble if the prevailing worldview demands that it be trouble!

Hmm... so if the butterflies somehow make the Amerindians randomly develop immunities to European diseases, and a strong urge to mate uncontrollably, America might not get roflpwned by Europe, and democracy as we know it might never emerge...

 

[Dachs]

In terms of stronger Hungary PoD's, I find Mongolian Redirection to be very rewarding. The long-term impact of the Mongolian pillaging of Hungary (one of those ironic steppe-nation pillaging an ex-steppe-nation things) is sometimes underestimated.

Par example, a Mongolian conquest of Constantinople and the religious insanity that would follow (both from Orthodox Byzantine refugees, anti-Mongol Crusades, and whatever importations/conversions the Mongols bring) would be fun.

Remember who's in charge of Constantinople right now?

I, of course, think this is a PRETTY COOL idea.

 

[bombshoo]

Maybe they can call it the the Roman Khanate and start claiming to be legitimate successors. That's pretty interesting on its own.

 

[Dachs]

Maybe they can call it the the Roman Khanate and start claiming to be legitimate successors. That's pretty interesting on its own.

They'd have to join the club.

At this point, Asen has just died and Vatatzes, who was OTL attempting to secure a Mongol alliance for this very purpose, is preparing to land in Thrace. Theodoros and Ioannis Doukas in Thessalonika were his targets at the time; with Bulgaria neutralized, they, who are already weaker, were ripe for the picking and in OTL the Nikaians successfully forced them into vassalization. Figure out who the Mongols side with and what they do during their necessarily brief stay and you've got a good platform.

 

[das]

Uber Spain plz.

You do ofcourse realise that I alone did that at least three times, that I can think of from the top of my head? (It's hardly my fault that the people who actually play my uber-Spains tend to leave them in ruins if even independent. Er, except for that one time when I was playing France...)

Unless you're talking about "Greater Romania", which is not that uber.

It's not that bad, for a start, but yes, you need more than that. Maybe if Romania was on the Allied side in WWII, got easily conquered by Germans, and received entirely undeserved amounts of territory at the end? Because that formula seems to have worked best for it historically.

Technically if Dacia were to be counted as Romania then we already got that in a NES once, but as for medieval and modern Romania, that's one of the few countries that never really got much of anything in our community.

Uber-Galicia?

Ah, but which Galicia?

Uber-Bavaria? (Well, there've probably been a few that're close. )

I agree that the Imperial throne in the 18th century is not all that uber, but it's a step in the right direction. The only problem is that ultimately it will likely just be Germany with a Wittelsbach Kaiser and maybe a Bavarian capital and Bavarian advisers (and even less probably, with a reverse-Kulturkampf).

So for a Greater Bavaria rather than Greater Wittelsbachs, we should probably look to the 8th century or the whereabouts.

I need to see the Uber-Hungary timeline, guise.

I was mostly referring to Israelite9191's (the links to the timeline are there). It was a nice and detailed timeline; sadly the NES didn't last.

I find Mongolian Redirection to be very rewarding

but implausible. The Mongols attacked Bulgaria historically, but never paid all that much attention to it as compared to Poland and Hungary; I don't think they really cared much for the wealth of the Balkans. More importantly, why would they ever pass up Hungary, a nation situated on the Pannonian Plain? Steppe hordes need the steppe; it certainly influenced both the routes and the range of Mongol invasions in the west.

It's not inconceivable for the Mongols to try and mount a larger invasion of the Balkans, ofcourse, but if anything such plans would've made attacking Hungary first an even bigger priority. And the Mongols weren't exactly keen on small-scale surgical precision preemptive attacks.

That said, if the Mongols did conquer Constantinople that would've been pretty neat indeed; it's just that it would not really be a Greater Hungary timeline.

 

[Dachs]

Ayo das I was just reading some of Hammond's stuff on the Maks and he was whining about how counterproductive Antigonos Gonatas' Greek policy was compared to his father's and Antigonos Doson's were, wasting garrisons in a grand effort to get the Greeks to all hate him, getting involved in the Chremonidean War, etc. You think that figuring out a way to loosen up the Fetters has althistorical/intellectual merit as a starting point for limiting Rome or at least slowing it down for the Seleukids/Ptolies et al. or nahhhh?

Also I suddenly got a hardon for the later Visigoths.

Ah, but which Galicia?

Whichever works.

I agree that the Imperial throne in the 18th century is not all that uber, but it's a step in the right direction. The only problem is that ultimately it will likely just be Germany with a Wittelsbach Kaiser and maybe a Bavarian capital and Bavarian advisers (and even less probably, with a reverse-Kulturkampf).

Hmp, some Imperial throne. The silly dunce couldn't even keep his capital without running to France. "Hey, I'm going to lay claim to Austria and Bohemia! It'll definitely work, even though I have jack all for an army and rely on de Belle-Isle for everything!"

So for a Greater Bavaria rather than Greater Wittelsbachs, we should probably look to the 8th century or the whereabouts.

...but then it won't really be Bavaria ...You thinking an Agilolfings-stay-independent Bavaria or one of the revolts against Otto I succeeds Bavaria? I guess the latter wouldn't really lead to independence, just a temporary change in the ruling house of the Empire if that. So could Agilolfing Bavaria have kept a shred of sovereignty, even with Avars and later Magyars beating up on it from the other side?

That said, if the Mongols did conquer Constantinople that would've been pretty neat indeed; it's just that it would not really be a Greater Hungary timeline.

True. Plus, it's a grand excuse to keep at least half of Anatolia Byzantine-Greek, and we all know I'm stereotypically in favor of any schemes to do that.

 

[das]

Ayo das I was just reading some of Hammond's stuff on the Maks and he was whining about how counterproductive Antigonos Gonatas' Greek policy was compared to his father's and Antigonos Doson's were, wasting garrisons in a grand effort to get the Greeks to all hate him, getting involved in the Chremonidean War, etc. You think that figuring out a way to loosen up the Fetters has althistorical/intellectual merit as a starting point for limiting Rome or at least slowing it down for the Seleukids/Ptolies et al. or nahhhh?

What exactly are you suggesting, a looser Macedonian hegemony over the rest of Greece? Wouldn't that have the opposite effect of granting the Ptolemies and anyone else an easier inroad into Greece if they promise to prop up or alternatively help overthrow a tyrant who can no longer rely on immediate Macedonian military assistance?

Whichever works.

Because I already did one of them, hint-hint.

Hmp, some Imperial throne. The silly dunce couldn't even keep his capital without running to France. "Hey, I'm going to lay claim to Austria and Bohemia! It'll definitely work, even though I have jack all for an army and rely on de Belle-Isle for everything!"

I was referring to the Nan Ming timeline, actually. The historical efforts were pretty pathetic, yes; France actually winning the war is the only way for it to happen.

So could Agilolfing Bavaria have kept a shred of sovereignty, even with Avars and later Magyars beating up on it from the other side?

It seems the best way to achieve a Greater Bavaria that is not simply a Bavarian-ruled Germany. But yeah, the situation is going to be difficult, though not impossible. Actually, Germany without Charlemagne is a pretty interesting topic in its own right.

 

[qoou]

It's not that bad, for a start, but yes, you need more than that. Maybe if Romania was on the Allied side in WWII, got easily conquered by Germans, and received entirely undeserved amounts of territory at the end? Because that formula seems to have worked best for it historically.

You forgot the part about breaking their peace treaty one day before their allies sign an armistice with the enemy, using a phony "National Assembly" to annex ~1/3rd of their neighbor's land (who was at the time undergoing a communist revolution), and then invading said war-torn, revolution-torn, and overall torn neighbor.

 

[Dachs]

What exactly are you suggesting, a looser Macedonian hegemony over the rest of Greece? Wouldn't that have the opposite effect of granting the Ptolemies and anyone else an easier inroad into Greece if they promise to prop up or alternatively help overthrow a tyrant who can no longer rely on immediate Macedonian military assistance?

Possibly, yes, but withdrawing the garrisons may have had the handy side effect of actually getting the Maks allies, too. Witness, say, the reigns of Antigonos Doson or Philippos V (the first, Social War, part). As it was, the policy of keeping garrisons at Akrokorinthos, Munychia, and so forth ensured not only popular resistance but the willingness of that popular resistance to call on the Ptolies to push the Maks out. Superficially, at least, a looser policy seems like a better investment than wasting blood and treasure to ensure that the Maks are hated in southern Greece.

Because I already did one of them, hint-hint.

Oh riiiiiight.

It seems the best way to achieve a Greater Bavaria that is not simply a Bavarian-ruled Germany. But yeah, the situation is going to be difficult, though not impossible. Actually, Germany without Charlemagne is a pretty interesting topic in its own right.

At least, the parts that weren't already Frankish. Saxons et al will still be converting to Christianity, it'll just take longer, right?

 

[das]

You forgot the part about breaking their peace treaty one day before their allies sign an armistice with the enemy, using a phony "National Assembly" to annex ~1/3rd of their neighbor's land (who was at the time undergoing a communist revolution), and then invading said war-torn, revolution-torn, and overall torn neighbor.

Don't worry, we don't usually forget that sort of stuff.

Superficially, at least, a looser policy seems like a better investment than wasting blood and treasure to ensure that the Maks are hated in southern Greece.

Well, maybe. It seems to me that they are damned if they do, damned if they don't. It's not like they were loved before, and it seems all too likely that the cities will defect away all the same, and then the Macedonians will have to waste blood and gold to bring them back into the fold anyway. There might still be some local political differences in the specific cities involved; Aratus and his cause will probably not be nearly as successful as in OTL, and both Greece in general and the political parties of specific cities will be more divided with no Macedonian garrisons to unite them.

Oh riiiiiight.

Give up yet, by the way?

At least, the parts that weren't already Frankish. Saxons et al will still be converting to Christianity, it'll just take longer, right?

That pretty much goes without saying, though I imagine there still might be some cultural differences from the way Christianity was introduced. And ofcourse the overall political tradition would be very different. There are lots of other things, so this looks quite promising.

 

[Dachs]

Well, maybe. It seems to me that they are damned if they do, damned if they don't. It's not like they were loved before, and it seems all too likely that the cities will defect away all the same, and then the Macedonians will have to waste blood and gold to bring them back into the fold anyway. There might still be some local political differences in the specific cities involved; Aratus and his cause will probably not be nearly as successful as in OTL, and both Greece in general and the political parties of specific cities will be more divided with no Macedonian garrisons to unite them.

That's true, and it's also fair to note that Antigonos Doson and Philippos were only able to achieve the success they did because an external threat helped them scare everybody else into resurrecting the old Korinthian koinon - Kleomenes. Much the same when Philippos II and Alexandros attempted the policy in the 330s and 320s, and when Polyperchon tried it out against Kassandros in the 310s. Gonatas lacked that kind of threat, so it's hard to imagine a circumstance in which everybody gets along without him to unite them all against him. Maybe he could prolong the whole thing by playing off the Aitolians against the Molossians and Achaians, but yeah things are going to be a lot less linear. Not really a great base for fighting off Rome. I was thinking that contingents from the allied Greek cities could help make up the manpower deficiency the Maks seem to have suffered from, but with this sort of junk going on that's far too unreliable a platform.

Man, I don't want to have to go all the way back to Keraunos being a douchebag to the Dardanian king in friggin' 279 just to solve Mak manpower issues.

Give up yet, by the way?

Is it some thing out of Czech or Polish thirteenth century history?

That pretty much goes without saying, though I imagine there still might be some cultural differences from the way Christianity was introduced. And ofcourse the overall political tradition would be very different. There are lots of other things, so this looks quite promising.

Well, except for a mechanism as to how it actually happens - or is it just going to be introducing some more inconvenient brothers/heirs for the Pippinids in the eighth century, kicking off unfortunate civil wars such that they get weakened and lose their grip on Germany and somehow never get it back?

 

[das]

Relying on Greek city-states for the manpower of your territorial empire is never a good idea unless you already have so much power and so little viable competition that you can break their resistance for good (and "for good" means going Ivan III on their ruling elite and traditional institutions). If you want more manpower, you need to conquer some other places (and by other places I mostly mean Thrace, but Asia Minor might work well too if it works at all) and either use the locals or establish colonies to increase your long-term Macedonian manpower. A bit roundabout, but it's the only thing I can think of.

Is it some thing out of Czech or Polish thirteenth century history?

Oh so very close, but ultimately, no.

Well, except for a mechanism as to how it actually happens - or is it just going to be introducing some more inconvenient brothers/heirs for the Pippinids in the eighth century, kicking off unfortunate civil wars such that they get weakened and lose their grip on Germany and somehow never get it back?

That's probably the idea. Give the German polities some time to consolidate and form. The wars with the not-at-all-obliterated Avars should be an impetus.

 

[Dachs]

Relying on Greek city-states for the manpower of your territorial empire is never a good idea unless you already have so much power and so little viable competition that you can break their resistance for good (and "for good" means going Ivan III on their ruling elite and traditional institutions). If you want more manpower, you need to conquer some other places (and by other places I mostly mean Thrace, but Asia Minor might work well too if it works at all) and either use the locals or establish colonies to increase your long-term Macedonian manpower. A bit roundabout, but it's the only thing I can think of.

Yeah, the Phil II-Phil V-Perseus solution. Starting to look like knocking off Keraunos is the best bet, then.

Oh so very close, but ultimately, no.

Temporally close or geographically close?

That's probably the idea. Give the German polities some time to consolidate and form. The wars with the not-at-all-obliterated Avars should be an impetus.

So what happens to Italy if the Franks are busily slaughtering each other?