And so, the senate

[Timsup2nothin]

I think it's an interesting time to start speculating about what the senate is going to do. The house is boring; they will investigate Trump and draft popular legislation that forces either the senate or Trump to shoot it down. But the senate...that's interesting.

Jon Kyl is filling McCain's seat. Flake knew that crossing Trump would get him primaried, but as he expected the primary produced a Trumpist that couldn't win. Does Kyl embrace Trump to get through his primary so he can lose in November? Or does he flake? Is there some narrow path to success?

What about Cornyn in Texas? Cruz barely held of O'Rourke. Does that push Cornyn to embrace Trump more, or less?

A Democrat challenger has already entered the race in North Carolina, where Tillis is a first termer and thought to be perhaps the most vulnerable. Embrace Trump? Run away? What's his best strategy?

That list goes on. So what does this do to the GOP majority? Will they stonewall every bill coming from the house to protect Trump from having to veto popular stuff? What if the Democrats cut a deal with Trump and send up an infrastructure bill that increases spending without increasing taxes? They've all signed on to the probably illegal but who really cares pact to NEVER vote for something like that. If Trump is for it and most of the minority is for it will some break ranks and vote for it? Who gets hurt by that in 2020?

McConnell may be putting a bold happy face on how he "saved the majority," but GOP senators have a lot of problems to consider.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Trump will be looking for wins. He'll f the senate to get one.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Trump will be looking for wins. He'll f the senate to get one.

I think that's clearly true. The GOP senators would be beyond foolish to trust him to do anything else. How to stop him without screwing themselves in the process is a question. I think they have to prevent anything coming from the house that Trump might go for from ever even reaching the floor, but I'm not sure they can get away with that too much.

The core of the problem is that the majority puts them in the spotlight, but they really can't afford to present as a block. That question of embrace Trump/run away from Trump doesn't have a consistent answer, and Pelosi will be sending them stuff designed to run right down the fracture zone.

 

[Narz]

Someone's gotta have the balls to stand up to him. He cant run unopposed in Republican primary in 2020

 

[Birdjaguar]

I heard that Flake might run in a primary.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Oh, heck. That reminds me. What is Senator Mitt Romney going to be doing? He is almost certainly in the senate for the sole purpose of gutting Trump. How will that play into the strategies?

 

[Birdjaguar]

Nice thinking, but I think Mitch will bring him around.

 

[Narz]

Romney would lose to Trump by a landslide. Short of dying there's no way Trump will lose the primary but I'm super curious how his opponent will try.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Nice thinking, but I think Mitch will bring him around.

I dunno. I'm not sure that Romney really feels like he owes the GOP anything, and I'm really not believing he plans on running a re-election campaign. I'd guess he is thinking Trump crashes and burns in 2020 and that he can gather the shards of the GOP for his own run in 2024, and that such a run will be far enough into "I told you so" territory that Mitch and the gang will kiss his butt no matter how he performs in the senate..

 

[Birdjaguar]

We can only hope.

 

[Birdjaguar]

But if Romney plays the bipartisan card and brings 2 or 3 others with him, something good might actually happen.

 

[Zkribbler]

I heard that Flake might run in a primary.

Why? He could just run for re-election.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Why? He could just run for re-election.

Not that flake, Jeff Flake.

 

[Zkribbler]

But if Romney plays the bipartisan card and brings 2 or 3 others with him, something good might actually happen.

He's running for President. "Bipartisan" doesn't get him there.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

He's running for President. "Bipartisan" doesn't get him there.

It might, if there is a total fracture. A GOP that openly revolts against Trumpism draws a lot of former Republicans away from their uneasy truce with the Democrats, especially since when some start going the Democrats are drawn hard left by the departures. Repudiation of the Teahadists, reclaiming the actual center...it could work. I mean, any teahadists or Trumpists that did turn out would still not vote for the democrat. The big question would be whether the Democrats played into it and ran a serious hard left extremist. If they were patient and at least tried to hold the center it would blow up in Romney's face.

 

[stinkubus]

Romney would lose to Trump by a landslide. Short of dying there's no way Trump will lose the primary but I'm super curious how his opponent will try.

Trump could easily lose the 2020 primary to a decent candidate. He only won a narrow plurality against a clown car of terrible candidates the last go round. Whether or not a worthy challenger awaits is a whole 'nother story.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Trump could easily lose the 2020 primary to a decent candidate. He only won a narrow plurality against a clown car of terrible candidates the last go round. Whether or not a worthy challenger awaits is a whole 'nother story.

Nominally true, but it would require a GOP candidate willing to risk throwing the election to the Democrats and effectively destroy the GOP. To win in November after ousting Trump would require turning about a quarter of Democrats away from their party, because Trump's faithful would provide no support. If it doesn't work, their political career is dead out over. Is there anyone capable of even having a shot at pulling it off who would be willing to take that risk?

 

[EgonSpengler]

I read somewhere that there's a non-zero chance that the governor of Arizona could appoint someone to take over John McCain's Senate seat, and that Martha McSally would be the obvious choice. I've also read that McSally moved closer to Trump during the campaign, but then she didn't win. Although I can't say that McSally's support for Trump cost her the race, Arizona did have 2 Senators who stood up to Trump (although Flake did it only with one foot out the door), and I read that McSally had been critical of Trump before. I don't know what Arizonans thinks of Trump today, or what they would expect of a Sen. McSally. It might be a long-shot anyway.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I read somewhere that there's a non-zero chance that the governor of Arizona could appoint someone to take over John McCain's Senate seat, and that Martha McSally would be the obvious choice. I've also read that McSally moved closer to Trump during the campaign, but then she didn't win. Although I can't say that McSally's support for Trump cost her the race, Arizona did have 2 Senators who stood up to Trump (although Flake did it only with one foot out the door), and I read that McSally had been critical of Trump before. I don't know what Arizonans thinks of Trump today, or what they would expect of a Sen. McSally. It might be a long-shot anyway.

Not a long shot. When Kyl was appointed to finish McCain's term he made clear that he was not going to run in 2020. The GOP would prefer someone in that seat who will use the incumbent advantage, and word is that Kyl is willing to step down and allow the governor to appoint that person, which is most likely McSally. They wanted to appoint her in the first place, but she was already committed to the race for Flake's seat.

 

[Cutlass]

Oh, heck. That reminds me. What is Senator Mitt Romney going to be doing? He is almost certainly in the senate for the sole purpose of gutting Trump. How will that play into the strategies?

RMoney doesn't actually have a backbone, no matter how much he may pretend otherwise. He may not like Trump. He may even despise Trump. But when push comes to shove, he will vote his own personal offshore bank account, and that means siding with Trump.