Artsakh-Azerbaijani War

[The_J]

The OP should have put any news link in the OP maybe .
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54314341
Got that from my GF's housemate. She's from Azerbaidjan, and just got back from visiting her family in Baku.
I just hope this doesn't escalate a lot and is limited to a few firings over the border, and not much more.

 

[Kyriakos]

The OP should have put any news link in the OP maybe .
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54314341
Got that from my GF's housemate. She's from Azerbaidjan, and just got back from visiting her family in Baku.
I just hope this doesn't escalate a lot and is limited to a few firings over the border, and not much more.

Motion to dismiss juror The_J.

 

[red_elk]

Isn't Armenia supposed to be protected by Russia? I think Russia will do well to stop pretending to be pro-Turkey, alienating historic ties to countries it shares culture with.

Armenia is a CSTO member, thus effectively has mutual defense treaty with Russia. This at least prevent the conflict from escalating into full-blown war, because Azerbaijan attacks are limited to Nagorno-Karabach/Artsakh territory and leaves Armenia mainland untouched. The conflict is still at the stage of border skirmishes.

Is anyone in this conflict even close to being "the good guys", or should I decide who I should support based on the quality of their national food?

There are no good guys in the conflict, as with most ethnic conflicts in the world. But in this particular war, Azerbaijan is clearly aggressor IMO. Armenia is weaker side and Azerbaijan is the one dissatisfied with the status quo, this makes the situation inherently unstable.

This is already the second escalation in the last year. The conflict needs Russian mediation ASAP, last time it helped to achieve cease-fire. Russia is also much interested in maintaining the status quo.

 

[r16]

it is practically all out war 1940s style , with Azeris on the breakthrough phase as much as the Red Army would first have to crack Wehrmacht layered defences . With Azeris reported to have 200 tanks , Armenians claim to have destroyed 80 , on yesterday's numbers . There might be 1000 or more killed already on both sides .

edit : Also ignore the Russian position as Armenians were like compelled to fire on the pipelines to Georgia because it strenghtens Putin's hand .

 

[red_elk]

Armenia attacks Azeri oil infrastructure, Azerbaijan bombs Yerevan, Armenia invokes Russia, Azerbaijan invokes Turkey, Turkey invokes NATO.
End of civilization.

 

[r16]

doesn't scare me one bit . lf Russia wants to be a global power and whatnot it should keep its promises and whatnot . lt is going to explode in Putin's hands like a grenade , this love of everything New Turkey . And the influence he thinks he gets with that relationship . Considering NATO is even braver than Russia . When the Russian jet was shot down American F-15s pell mell ran away from lncirlik .

 

[cardgame]

I would hope that NATO would tell turkey to get plucked

 

[Tigranes]

I would hope that NATO would tell turkey to get plucked

It is not going to happen. Not just because second largest army in NATO is Turkish. But also because commander in chief of the first largest army has business in Turkey:

During his first two years as president, Trump received $73 million from foreign operations, which in addition to his golf properties in Scotland and Ireland included $3 million from the Philippines, $2.3 million from India and $1 million from Turkey, among other nations. The president in 2017 paid $145,400 in taxes in India and $156,824 in the Philippines, compared to just $750 in U.S. income taxes. The Times said the tax records did not reveal any unreported connections to Russia.

 

[Tigranes]

The OP should have put any news link in the OP maybe .
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54314341
Got that from my GF's housemate. She's from Azerbaidjan, and just got back from visiting her family in Baku.
I just hope this doesn't escalate a lot and is limited to a few firings over the border, and not much more.

Sunday War news were trending on Twitter, were the first item in World Google news and were reported by every single international news edition. And sometimes when one offers a particular news outlet there is a feeling that one can never win. It's either going to be labeled pro or con. BBC is my personal favorite but still... While my people are being killed as we speak (I left the region 20 years ago but still maintain close ties with immediate family and friends) even political correctness can really hurt. Even something that on it's face looks as innocent as this:

It is common in this decades-long conflict for both sides to accuse the other of firing the first shots and what we are seeing is not just military action but also an information war. It is difficult to independently verify official information.

Wow. The rhetoric to retake "lost lands" were sounding from Baku for years and intensified lately, it was never a question of if but when. Military build up on Azeri side was going on for weeks, with very recent joint military exercise with Turkey serving as a dress rehearsal and international mediators doing nothing, the coordinated all-in Azeri offensive is being commenced on the ENTIRE front line with heavy bombardment on early Sunday morning just as Hitler attacked Soviet Union -- and BBC cannot even inform regular people like you about WHO THE HELL started the full scale war? Border clashes do not happen on the entire front line from Iranian border to the Vardenis region of Armenia, border clashes do not include bombing and shelling of every single provincial center and the capital with civilian targets -- it's a classic case of brazenly openly prepared and executed attempt to get rid of every single Armenian in what Azerbaijan calls 20% of their lost lands. English Wikipedia at least has something more common sense on the matter:

In an interview given on 27 September regional expert Thomas de Waal stated that it was highly unlikely that the hostilities were initiated by the Armenian side. “Basically, Armenians won the war of the 1990s, they have all the territory they want,” de Waal said. “Their incentive is to normalize the status quo.” “For various reasons, Azerbaijan calculates that military action will win it something,” he said

So far they already won the pink areas on this map:



And border clashes do not involve general mobilization in the entire country for every male from 18 to 55. If I were in Armenia I could have been heading to the front line as we speak. This will be serious, protracted and bloody affair, I have zero reasons for optimism whatsoever.

 

[r16]

good , the thread will exist tomorrow , too .

and let's talk maps . NKR is Nagorno Karabagh , right ? But what's the subdivision inside ? Like can it be that one small part where Armenians were majority and there are two larger areas , like legally Azeri lands occupied to establish land connections to the enclave and more ? While the darker yellow segments are Karabağ territories which could not be liberated in the 90s and should be given to Armenians ? While the pink , you know , pink shows the advance of the Azeris who haven't yet broken into the tank country or whatever , as defined by lack of anti-tank minefields ?

 

[Phrossack]

Armenia is a known warmonger and genocider, just remember your failure to do anything against them despite being supported by 100 massive allied ships.
It's all good, your dead are now buried in a friendly warmonger country.

If you sneer at Australia for forming part of an army that lost a battle to Turkey, I have to wonder what you think of a country like Greece

 

[Samson]

good , the thread will exist tomorrow , too .

and let's talk maps . NKR is Nagorno Karabagh , right ? But what's the subdivision inside ? Like can it be that one small part where Armenians were majority and there are two larger areas , like legally Azeri lands occupied to establish land connections to the enclave and more ? While the darker yellow segments are Karabağ territories which could not be liberated in the 90s and should be given to Armenians ? While the pink , you know , pink shows the advance of the Azeris who haven't yet broken into the tank country or whatever , as defined by lack of anti-tank minefields ?

I think this is poorly labelled. The bit inside the thin line is Nagorno Karabakh, so only the "R" is fully inside it. The light pink region is the bit of Azerbaijan that is controlled by Armenia (or was a few days ago).

 

[Phrossack]

I think this is poorly labelled. The bit inside the thin line is Nagorno Karabakh, so only the "R" is fully inside it. The light pink region is the bit of Azerbaijan that is controlled by Armenia (or was a few days ago).

Bunch of weird, tiny exclaves in both countries by the look of things, too

 

[Samson]

More escalation? Armenia says its fighter jet 'shot down by Turkey'

Armenia says one of its fighter jets was shot down by a Turkey jet, in a major escalation of a conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.
The Armenian foreign ministry said the pilot of the Soviet-made SU-25 died after being hit by the Turkish F-16 in Armenian air space.
Turkey, which is backing Azerbaijan in the conflict, has made no comments.​

 

[red_elk]

We need to get them all back into the USSR. This at least will solve all territorial disputes.

 

[Tigranes]

good , the thread will exist tomorrow , too .

and let's talk maps . NKR is Nagorno Karabagh , right ? But what's the subdivision inside ? Like can it be that one small part where Armenians were majority and there are two larger areas , like legally Azeri lands occupied to establish land connections to the enclave and more ? While the darker yellow segments are Karabağ territories which could not be liberated in the 90s and should be given to Armenians ? While the pink , you know , pink shows the advance of the Azeris who haven't yet broken into the tank country or whatever , as defined by lack of anti-tank minefields ?

Here is the thing about maps. They are a product of geography and history. For two hundred years in 16th-18th centuries Sunni Ottomans and Shia Iranians divided Armenia between themselves and bitterly fought with each other, while Armenia was a battle ground. The territory you see in the map changed hands many times, with Armenians caught in a cross fire as a collateral damage. In early 1600s, after recapturing everything you see labeled as NKR and Armenia, Iranian Shah Abbas was like -- wait a minute. Why do we leave these hard working, tax paying, entrepreneuring Christians on these lands only for the Ottomans to take advantage of them when we lose the war again? Nah, deport the entire Armenians to Iran, give them carpet trading monopoly, build a new city for them, keep them as useful subjects while Armenia proper can be left to whatever Shia Turkic nomads care to graze their sheep there. That's the history part. Now comes geography. You see how weirdly NKR shaped and that Armenia was not even connected to it in Soviet times? That's how mountains shaped there. N in KR means mountainous, the rest of the KR around it are mostly low lands. Going back to history -- it was easier to depopulate and take to Iran low land people than highlanders. Original Armenian populations was saved by weirdly shaped NKR mountains while the bulk of Eastern Armenians went to Iran only to return back after Russian-Iranian war in 1826. That's why for all the Armenians this weirdly shaped region of NKR is the very soul of our existence. With Western Armenians completely removed from what we now call Eastern Turkey during the Genocide, it could well happened that no Armenians could have any claims even to Armenia proper. Nation with 3000 years of ties to it's homeland would have no claims to their own lands if those stubborn Armenians in NKR could have dislodged from their mountains back in 17th century. As a contrast, Azeris were named Caucasian Tatars in the first USSR census as recently as less than 100 years ago! Just think about it, 3000 years of national identity vs 100 years.

Meanwhile just in ...

A Turkish F-16 fighter jet shot down an Armenian SU-25 warplane over Armenian territory on Tuesday, killing the pilot, an Armenian defense ministry spokeswoman said.

Now lets talk plains, you are a former pilot, right? It takes many years and many millions of dollars to train one single pilot for a fighter like F-16. I mean, maybe only becoming an astronaut requires more training and investment than F-16 . It is clear as day that Azeris don't have such planes and pilots. Got to be NATO powered Turkish Airforce, right?

 

[red_elk]

Armenia mobilizing

 

[Tigranes]

We need to get them all back into the USSR. This at least will solve all territorial disputes.

Ulibnulo . Let's continue this logic and pass the rest of the world to America or Russia or China. In, say, Chinese lands Indians will be friends with Pakistani, Jews with Arabs, Russians with Ukrainians, Buddhist of Myanmar with Rohingya, and nOrth Korea with the rest of the world. One world government with one language, no religion and no political differences.

 

[red_elk]

Azerbaijan claims that Su-25 (ground attack plane, btw, not fighter) was shot down by their Mig-29, not Turkish F-16.
In any case, direct attacks against Armenia are very concerning. Russia should stop trying to sit on two chairs and show clearer support of Armenia, at least diplomatic, and send modern air defense and electronic warfare equipment.

 

[Kyriakos]

If Greece wasn't a protectorate, now would have been the ideal time to declare 12 miles of control at the sea, and arrange EEZ border with Cyprus.

If you sneer at Australia for forming part of an army that lost a battle to Turkey, I have to wonder what you think of a country like Greece

I am thinking what your british commander at that lost battle said, about heroes and stuff
Also, that it is a protectorate.

Azerbaijan claims that Su-25 (ground attack plane, btw, not fighter) was shot down by their Mig-29, not Turkish F-16.
In any case, direct attacks against Armenia are very concerning. Russia should stop trying to sit on two chairs and show clearer support of Armenia, at least diplomatic, and send modern air defense and electronic warfare equipment.

What I find curious is how Erdogan thinks he can afford alienating Russia too. Apparently a lot of backstabbing has been going on (Turkey losing bases in Libya and getting convoys bombed in Syria), but it's not a good idea to openly go against the larger power in the balance.