At Least 120 Dead in Paris Attacks

[Takhisis]

A good read, I think.

We must destroy Isis but not play into their hands – the wrong response would create countless new recruits
Hollande says our response to Isis must be “merciless” - and I agree - but it must also be strategic so we don’t fall into their trap

Sunny Hundal

The worst response to a tragic and horrific attack like that on Paris last night would be one that strengthens Isis. When President Francois Hollande said we are at war with Isis today, he was right. But it is a war we can only win if we don’t get provoked into the response they want from us. The response they expect.

Parisians are sadly becoming all too used to this kind of violence. It was only in January this year when the attack on Charlie Hebdo left most of its staff dead or maimed. And now this, an attack so ferocious and brutal that Paris may take years to recover. Seven years ago, to this very month, gunmen also ran amok in Mumbai and unleashed terror that was to last four days and claim 164 lives. This is global war, and and it could be very well be a generational war.

As I watched the horror unfold on TV last night, I was asked: “why are they doing this?” - which seems like a naive question but is actually an excellent place to start from. If Isis were indeed behind this (they have now claimed responsibility) - why would they do this?

Isis are doing this to provoke us. They want us to attack them on their soil: in Iraq and Syria. They want to see western troops back in those lands because the chaos and backlash that would create would play directly into their hands. It would create countless new recruits for them.

Isis are also doing this to create division and exploit tension in our modern multi-racial societies. They want western Muslims to feel unwanted in their homes in Europe, and to instead join them in Syria. They want western Muslims to feel that they can only truly be at home at the Isis Caliphate.

And Isis want to see western countries become closed, authoritarian societies where we live in fear of them and their capabilities. They hate what we stand for and they want to provoke us into changing that.

The temptation to react to Isis in the way they want will be strong in the aftermath of Paris. Francois Hollande says our response to Isis must be “merciless” - and I agree - but it must also be strategic so we don’t fall into their trap.

We must stand for our values: liberalism, secularism, openness, free speech and equality: those are the values we swear by and those are the values we must now strain every sinew to live by.

When Chancellor Angela Merkel said Germany would offer shelter to Syrian refugees earlier this year, Isis released a dozen videos in panic, encouraging Syrians to come back. But the damage was done. Syrians saw that Europe was more willing to offer them refuge and dignity than many Muslim states. That they were not heading to the Isis Caliphate was a slap in the face.

The attacks in Beirut and Paris is their response. They want us to brush away humanity and compassion with suspicion and division. By following that script we do exactly what Isis want us to do. The destruction of the Isis Caliphate must happen, but it must come from a Muslim-led force. After all, ordinary Muslims have been its biggest victims.

That isn’t to say we must do nothing. We have to challenge Islamism and its sympathisers in the west, and we have to stand for our values. There’s also no doubt we must win the war against Isis. But we cannot win it if we’re provoked into the response they want. We cannot win with a response that strengthens them rather than weakens them.​

 

[SS-18 ICBM]

Is it as big as originally planned, however?

You're right that it's comparatively well-coordinated when put alongside the previous terror attacks in France, but is that a result of intelligence failure? Would it not be also valid to consider that, maybe, this attack had the original intention of being significantly larger than it ended up being?

It's big enough and nobody seems to have caught a whiff of it. Hard to call it anything else other than a failure on the part of the authorities.

Furthermore, with attacks like this, coordination is not that big of a task. The largest hurdle in this attack seems to be the bomb-making. Everything else was rather straight forward and would not have required a ton of brainstorming.

And along those same lines... these people could have simply discussed their plans in a dark room with no electronics. No amount of phone or web tapping will ever be able to tell you what people not using either of those mediums are thinking or saying.

I highly doubt they conjured their weapons and supplies. Logistics and planning are not things that come easily to a group of people with an agenda.

 

[Akka]

It's big enough and nobody seems to have caught a whiff of it.

We have no idea about that. Actually, Hollande was incredibly quick to say "we know who they are". Might be PR stunt, might be attempt at reassuring, or might be that he really did.
After all, for all we know, this attack was planned for several monthes later and was only launched today because they felt some heat. Or it was planned to be much bigger but a part of the cell was already dismantled.
We have no idea.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we have a dozen of guys with small arms and small grenades in a city with tens of millions people. It's harder than finding a needle in a haystack.

 

[Synobun]

It's big enough and nobody seems to have caught a whiff of it. Hard to call it anything else other than a failure on the part of the authorities.

Not everything has to be someone's failure. Expecting omnipotent protection while expecting reasonable privacy seems like a situation guaranteed to come up with less than ideal results.

Even if they caught a whiff of it, what is the police supposed to do, exactly? Lock down the city every time they get a "whiff"? For how long do they lock it down? What constitutes as a whiff? If it turns out they didn't use phones or the internet for this, how would the authorities have been expected to discover the plot before it took place? Ensuring that every group over three individuals includes at least one undercover cop?

I highly doubt they conjured their weapons and supplies. Logistics and planning are not things that come easily to a group of people with an agenda.

I'd say it comes easier than an individual or unaffiliated group of malcontents. Acquiring firearms isn't an overly difficult task especially when the group supporting your actions have preestablished networks in most western nations. Money, trust, and discretion are the biggest hurdles to obtaining illegal wares. The Islamic State has all three.

I am surprised that more attacks of this kind aren't being conducted in the west. They've demonstrated a more than adequate professionalism in this "occupation" on their home turf and have certainly sent out enough threats to the west about sending an equivalent amount of terror to their homes.

Also, what planning? This isn't some nefarious super-villain plot. It's hitting random civilian targets. You could probably have planned their itinerary in the span of a single afternoon.

 

[Gary Childress]

Not everything has to be someone's failure. Expecting omnipotent protection while expecting reasonable privacy seems like a situation guaranteed to come up with less than ideal results.

Even if they caught a whiff of it, what is the police supposed to do, exactly? Lock down the city every time they get a "whiff"? For how long do they lock it down? What constitutes as a whiff? If it turns out they didn't use phones or the internet for this, how would the authorities have been expected to discover the plot before it took place? Ensuring that every group over three individuals includes at least one undercover cop?



I'd say it comes easier than an individual or unaffiliated group of malcontents. Acquiring firearms isn't an overly difficult task especially when the group supporting your actions have preestablished networks in most western nations. Money, trust, and discretion are the biggest hurdles to obtaining illegal wares. The Islamic State has all three.

I am surprised that more attacks of this kind aren't being conducted in the west. They've demonstrated a more than adequate professionalism in this "occupation" on their home turf and have certainly sent out enough threats to the west about sending an equivalent amount of terror to their homes.

Also, what planning? This isn't some nefarious super-villain plot. It's hitting random civilian targets. You could probably have planned their itinerary in the span of a single afternoon.

I think the post above really sums everything up very well, especially the part about realistic expectations regarding protection vs. privacy and rights.

 

[brennan]

The more freedom we have, the easier we are to attack. We're still very easy to attack in the West, even after several years of efforts to undermine civil liberties in the name of security. This is something to be proud of.

We are 14 years in to the global war on terror. Chalk up another success. I look forward to various people 'getting tough on terror' and 'taking the gloves off'; in fact I feel safer already...

 

[chijohnaok]

The oil goes out via pipelines. Those are managed by someone, so it should be easy and not a mere gesture to cut off that source of finance for these terrorist organisations.

Pipelines, not necessarily.

Here is are several articles that decscribe the oil trade there:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/19/-sp-islamic-state-oil-empire-iraq-isis

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mikegiglio/this-is-how-isis-smuggles-oil#.lcd5Y79rob

It sounds like product transport is primarily via motor vehicle, either by oil tanker trucks, or in oil barrels transported in trucks, vans, etc.

According to the article, oil is smuggled into Iraqi Kurdistan or into Turkey.
Refined oil products are smuggled back.

 

[Daw]

It sounds like product transport is primarily via motor vehicle, either by oil tanker trucks, or in oil barrels transported in trucks, vans, etc.

Oil isn't particularly expensive these days, smuggled oil must be somewhat cheaper to cover the risk... So either there are whole busy highways of that truck smuggle or it's just about some pocket money compared to the expenses they have to cover.

 

[Takhisis]

So the very Kurds are being sold out by their own kind who smuggle the oil for Isis.

 

[Borachio]

This of course is a tragic, and deplorable, incident.

But I was struck yesterday by Hollande stating that this was an act of war by IS.

Well, this is far too obvious to be worth saying - and I don't know why he did. French forces have been long engaged in a war against IS, and IS themselves claim that their Paris attack was a response to attacks by the French on them in Syria and Iraq.

Saying that it was an act of war would be like Hitler claiming the RAF bombing Hamburg was an act of war, imo.

I suppose he was just indulging in political rhetoric, though.

Anyway, never mind. Carry on.

 

[CavLancer]

It always hits home when bombs go off at home. The Japanese called the Doolittle raid a criminal act or some such. So Hollande said it was an act of war, and he's right. Its all acts of war.

The whole mess in Paris has me thinking of the attacks in New York. I'm stuck on the firemen climbing the steps as the workers went down, that really gets me still. There will be stories coming out of this tragic day in France of the lives of those who endured it just like there was after 9/11.

Soon after 9/11 the BBC orchestra did this, and really captured the sense of tragedy. Pulling the fire truck out of the rubble still chokes me up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRMz8fKkG2g

 

[SS-18 ICBM]

We have no idea about that. Actually, Hollande was incredibly quick to say "we know who they are". Might be PR stunt, might be attempt at reassuring, or might be that he really did.
After all, for all we know, this attack was planned for several monthes later and was only launched today because they felt some heat. Or it was planned to be much bigger but a part of the cell was already dismantled.
We have no idea.

I'm hoping it's not that. Heads are definitely going to roll if someone actually knew about the attacks and didn't do anything about it.

Even if they caught a whiff of it, what is the police supposed to do, exactly?

Whatever it is that police do that leads to those news stories about foiled terrorist plots. They can be caught, you know. It's not impossible. I'll have to do some reading on anti-terrorism procedures. Because plots have been foiled here in Canada, and last time I checked, I'm not living in a police state.

The more freedom we have, the easier we are to attack. We're still very easy to attack in the West, even after several years of efforts to undermine civil liberties in the name of security. This is something to be proud of.

Gives a new meaning to that quote about watering the tree of liberty. A small price paid for being free and open societies.

 

[brennan]

They actually do very little. Intelligence services have nowhere near enough manpower to deal with everything and everyone on their 'radar'.

 

[AdrienIer]

The same question was asked in January after the Charlie Hebdo attack. The police answered that if they had to keep precise track of everyone that is a potential risk they'd need to have ten times more men and millions more in funding. So that's not going to happen.

 

[chijohnaok]

There is an article dated October 7, 2015 titled:
Can France's New 'Stop Jihadism' Counterterrorism Program Prevent Westerners From Joining ISIS?

That article had some interesting points in it.

“Our son lived in a very privileged atmosphere. He liked music, he liked sports, he did sketch comedy,” said Veronique, a blonde white woman, speaking from her apartment in Paris. “And then one morning he leaves for Germany, and then from Germany he never came back.”

Veronique, identified only by her first name in a video released Wednesday by the French minister of the interior, is one of many parents of an estimated 1,500 French youths who have left the country since 2011 to join the Islamic State group, also known as ISIS or ISIL. Her story, part of a new ad campaign to prevent terrorism called "Stop Jihadism," is aimed at discouraging radicalization of French youth, something that authorities customarily approach through policing. But France still has more people joining ISIS than any other Western European nation, and experts caution that the country’s latest tactics alone will not stop radicalization.

[My bold emphasis above]

The incident [Charlie Hebdo], perpetrated in January by two Paris-bred self-proclaimed Islamic militants, put the issue of homegrown terrorism center-stage. Since then, authorities have instituted such measures as heightened border controls, more police patrols on the street and more than 2,600 additional people working in counterterrorism units.

France has certainly increased its counter-terrorism efforts, yet ISIS was still able to pull off the coordinated attacks that we witnessed on Friday. Additionally, just in the last few weeks, ISIS brought down a Russian jetliner (224 dead) and only 24 hours before the Paris attack an ISIS suicide bomber struck in Beirut resulting in the death of 43 people and at least another 239 injured. The US President on Thursday said "What is true, from the start our goal has been first to contain and we have contained them. They have not gained ground in Iraq and in Syria. They'll come in. They'll leave. But you don't see this systemic march by ISIL across the terrain. What we have not yet been able to do is to completely decapitate their command and control structures. We've made some progress in trying to reduce the flow of foreign fighters." And while it may be true that recently the territorial spread of ISIS in Syria and Iraq has been checked, ISIS has certainly upped its game and demonstrated its ability to attack countries beyond the territory of ISIS.

For those that argue that the problem in stemming the recruitment of people to ISIS cause is that poor and marginalized Muslims have a lack of options, there is this (from the linked article):

While some have criticized the lack of focus on Muslim communities in the French approach, preliminary statistical evidence shows that many of the French radicals do not fit the stereotype of a marginalized Muslim youth drawn to radical Islam. Nearly one out of every four people who attempt to join ISIS from France converted to Islam from other religions, Tenenbaum said, adding that they often come from upper-middle-class white families.

That's not to say poverty and marginalization don't lead to some Muslims becoming radicalized, but poverty and marginalization are not the only factors.

A NY Times article from September reported the following:

a new confidential U.S. intelligence assessment indicates that as many as 30,000 foreigners from more than 100 countries have flocked to Syria and Iraq to join the ranks of ISIS in the past year, double the number of recruits from the year before.

So ask yourself "have France's (and those of other countries) increased counter-terrorism efforts and efforts to prevent recruitment to join ISIS worked?"

 

[Farm Boy]

We got it with Christianity. We can get it with Islam too.

I think you got what I said, which is mostly functional and mostly good. I think when people think they got what you're saying/trumped? They sometimes decide to kill people, since they feel oppressed. Perception counts. That's like almost the entire point of terrorism, yes?

 

[brennan]

The UK government's anti radicalisation initiative (PREVENT) is an abject failure. I believe the fundamental flaw is the underpinning belief that there is no rational basis for budding jihadists to feel their religion is effectively at war with hypocritical murderers (Western governments). It is thought that merely telling young potential recruits that "these people are insane bad guys m'kay?" can override what they know about the callous disregard our governments show for foreign casualties and the global drone war. Plus continued support for e.g. Saudi Arabia; plus Afghanistan, Iraq etc. To the contrary I think jihadists hold an easily comprehendable worldview, one that OBL explained to the world a very long time ago.

 

[chijohnaok]

Paris attacks: Identifications and arrests start piling up

From that article:

Three of the seven suicide bombers killed in the Paris attacks were French citizens, as was at least one of the seven other people arrested in neighboring Belgium suspected of links to the attacks.

A Belgian official said two of the seven suicide bombers were French men living in Brussels, and among those arrested was another French citizen living in the Belgian capital. The new information highlighted growing fears of possible homegrown terrorism in France, a country that has exported more jihadis than any other in Europe.

A U.S. law enforcement source told CBS News senior investigative producer Pat Milton there were eight attackers, seven of whom are dead, with one still at-large. The source said the possible identifies of three of the deceased terrorist suspects are: Ahmad al-Mohammad, born 1990, and from Enid Syria; Ismail Mostefai, whose father Mohammad Mostesari is a French citizen; and Yousef Salahel, born 1988 in Egypt.

French officials have identified the alleged attacker at large as Salah Abdeslam, a 26-year-old Belgian resident with French citizenship. He apparently rented the car with Belgium tags that has become a focus of the investigation.

Serbian police said Sunday the owner of a passport found near a suicide bomber in Paris entered the country on Oct. 7 from Macedonia - part of a wave of asylum-seekers crossing the Balkans toward Western Europe.

CBS News has confirmed the name on the passport is Ahmad Al-Mohammad. A U.S. intelligence source who confirmed the name warned however that the passport might be fake. The passport did not contain the correct numbers for a legitimate Syrian passport. Also, the picture did not match the name.

Police said in a statement Sunday that the man, identified officially only as A.A., formally requested asylum in Serbia. The statement says it's the same passport holder registered as entering Greece on Oct. 3.

The Syrian passport was found next to the body of a man who attacked France's national stadium on Friday night.

Officials in Greece say the passport's owner entered through Leros, one of the eastern Aegean islands that tens of thousands of people fleeing war and poverty have been using as a gateway into the European Union.

n addition, the governor of Bavaria said the arrest of a man in Germany last week may be linked to the Paris attacks. A spokesman for Bavarian state police spokesman confirmed that firearms, explosives and hand grenades were found when undercover police stopped a man near the German-Austrian border on Nov. 5.

More at the above linked article.

 

[Phrossack]

As long as the Islamic State is allowed to exist, it will massacre civilians everywhere in the Middle East and the West. The only way to defeat it is to invade and occupy it, but nobody is practically capable of the latter. It's up to Iraq and Syria to retake their territory from them. The Syrian solution will also needlessly end up murdering the surviving moderates, because that's what the Assads do and have always done, and Iraq? Their military is practically at Sierra Leone-levels of extreme incompetence and unwillingness to fight.

 

[Gucumatz]

The UK government's anti radicalisation initiative (PREVENT) is an abject failure. I believe the fundamental flaw is the underpinning belief that there is no rational basis for budding jihadists to feel their religion is effectively at war with hypocritical murderers (Western governments). It is thought that merely telling young potential recruits that "these people are insane bad guys m'kay?" can override what they know about the callous disregard our governments show for foreign casualties and the global drone war. Plus continued support for e.g. Saudi Arabia; plus Afghanistan, Iraq etc. To the contrary I think jihadists hold an easily comprehendable worldview, one that OBL explained to the world a very long time ago.

Its long been shown that the drone wars haven't actually had a significant influence on radicalization, not even in Pakistan, Afghanistan, or Yemen. The feeling of "oppression" and the concept of a "clash between civilizations" have always been the primary factors in radicalization
-----------

It looks like in Paris every now and then are false reports of new attacks, the city is still on a knife edge. Continued prayers go out