Because We Have a Problem: 2016 Forcasting List

[downtown]

Because we're sick nerds and we're already looking at 2016, why not make a thread of potential candidates?

Republicans:

Paul Ryan-Even with a Romney loss, Ryan is popular enough with the business wing in the Republican party that he can have a national role again if he wants it. He's young, and will be in budget policy discussions for good or for ill in over the next few years.
Bobby Jindal-Gov of Louisiana Sure he screwed up that speech that one time, but he's young and ambitious enough, and most people think he's going to make a run at it eventually. Jindal is really smart (rhodes scholar), has education and health care bonafides, is {very} conservative, and oh yeah, isn't an old rich white guy. There are some negatives (weirdo religious stuff, Louisiana is a sheethole still), but I think he'd be a force
Ricky Rubio-By this time, assuming he doesn't shoot himself in the foot, he'll be ready
John Thune-Senator, South Dakota Because a white guy with a strong jaw needs to win every year. Has the conservative credentials for the red-meat crowd.
Chris Christie-Gov NJ-You know this guy already.
Bob McDonnel- Gov, VA-Because we need a white southerner. He's also conservative enough for the Tea crowd, but is decently popular in a purpley state.
Scott Walker-Gov WI
Nikki Haley-Gov SC

DEMOCRATS
Joe Biden Technically a possibility
Martin O’Malley-Gov of Maryland The press keeps saying this may be a thing, but I find the guy boring as hell, and doesn't bring a lot to the table
Andrew Cuomo-Gov of NY-The favorite, based on his sky high ratings in NY, his hand in getting gay marriage passed, and even his willingness to get tough with unions.
Cory Booker-Major of Newark, NJ, Superhero Kind of a longshot, but he's a lot like Obama. His personal story is dynamite, he's got some fairly hefty policy bonafides, and he's ambitious. He's also the best at twitter among any politician.
Elizabeth Warren -Progressive blogs love her, but she has to win her seat in MA first, and I wouldn't bet on that. Not likely to have a lot of midwestern appeal either. Bleh.
Brian Schweitzer-Gov of Montana-A guy the more blue collar Democrats could really get around. Tough and plain-spoken, has bipartisan appeal, record of accomplishment. Not as sexy for the progressive wing though.

Who did I miss?

 

[JollyRoger]

You missed the Castro boys.

 

[downtown]

You missed the Castro boys.

Do you think either of them could be considered presidential in 2016 without winning a bigger race first? Even Barry was an Illinois senator, and I'm not sure if the demographics in Texas will change enough for them to win something statewide first.

 

[JollyRoger]

San Antonio has about double the population of Alaska and has a higher population than Montana.

 

[Joecoolyo]

Is Cory Booker that guy who saves people from house fires and helps shovel snow off people's driveways?

 

[_random_]

Russ Feingold? Decent appeal to the Midwest and quite a bit to progressives.

 

[Antilogic]

Here are my not-sures, but are at least good bets for consideration:

REPUBLICAN:
Tim Pawlenty - He got out early in 2012, but has at least tried before and didn't seem to have too many negatives with independents.
Mitt Romney - IF he wins in 2012. I doubt he'd run again if he loses to Obama now. But it's at least worth mentioning.

DEMOCRATIC:
Hillary Clinton - Still has plenty of enthusiastic supporters, don't know if she has explicitly ruled out running in 2016 or if she would reconsider.


COMMENTS:
Not too many on the Dem list. Would Mark Warner run?

 

[bhsup]

Why did you leave out JEB Bush for 2016? Well, I mean it's gonna be Romney anyway since he wins in 2012, but excluding that...

ON the Democratic side, what about former Kansas Gov and current cabinet secretary Kathleen Sebelieus? (I think I botched that name.)

 

[Cutlass]

Are you that certain Hillary won't run?

 

[Antilogic]

Why did you leave out JEB Bush for 2016? Well, I mean it's gonna be Romney anyway since he wins in 2012, but excluding that...

I knew there were three I wanted to write down... Pawlenty, Romney, and I forgot the third. Oops.

(No, seriously, I thought there was another Florida guy who might run, but Marco Rubio was the only one I could think of, and Charlie Crist isn't a Republican anymore.)

That's right, would good old Rick Perry make another attempt?

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Here are my not-sures, but are at least good bets for consideration:

REPUBLICAN:
Tim Pawlenty - He got out early in 2012, but has at least tried before and didn't seem to have too many negatives with independents.
Mitt Romney - IF he wins in 2012. I doubt he'd run again if he loses to Obama now. But it's at least worth mentioning.

DEMOCRATIC:
Hillary Clinton - Still has plenty of enthusiastic supporters, don't know if she has explicitly ruled out running in 2016 or if she would reconsider.


COMMENTS:
Not too many on the Dem list. Would Mark Warner run?

On Hillary: I heard she isn't coming back as Secretary of State for a second term to 'focus on other things'. I read that as: 'taking a break to get ready to run for president'.

Why did you leave out JEB Bush for 2016? Well, I mean it's gonna be Romney anyway since he wins in 2012, but excluding that...

ON the Democratic side, what about former Kansas Gov and current cabinet secretary Kathleen Sebelieus? (I think I botched that name.)

The Bush brand is too damaged for JEB to have a go IMO.

 

[Truronian]

Clinton vs. Rubio

You heard it here first folks!

 

[bhsup]

Really, it's not that damaged with people who might consider voting Republican anyway. And JEB really like his brother that much anyway. In fact, do you recall the little spat when he as Florida governor basically told the feds to go do things with themselves, that there would be no more drilling off Florida?

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Really, it's not that damaged with people who might consider voting Republican anyway. And JEB really like his brother that much anyway. In fact, do you recall the little spat when he as Florida governor basically told the feds to go do things with themselves, that there would be no more drilling off Florida?

The main problem is that there are not enough people who are going to 'vote Republican anyway' for him to make a decent general-election candidate. And I really question the assertion that Republicans would all vote for him no-problemo anyways.

 

[Cutlass]

Any of the candidates that did semi-well in the Republican primaries in 2012 will look like laughing stocks in 2016 if they try again. Which is the opposite of recent Republican history because the runner up in the Republican races has been the favored candidate for the next Republican race since the 70s. None of the 7 other dwarves (besides Romney) have a shot at the Republican nomination in the future. Though Huntsman or Pawlenty might look better in 2020 if the Republicans blow it in both 2012 and 2016.

If Romney loses the 2016 Republican nominee is going to be further right than any of the Republican primary candidates were at all, not just further right than Romney.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Any of the candidates that did semi-well in the Republican primaries in 2012 will look like laughing stocks in 2016 if they try again. Which is the opposite of recent Republican history because the runner up in the Republican races has been the favored candidate for the next Republican race since the 70s. None of the 7 other dwarves (besides Romney) have a shot at the Republican nomination in the future. Though Huntsman or Pawlenty might look better in 2020 if the Republicans blow it in both 2012 and 2016.

If Romney loses the 2016 Republican nominee is going to be further right than any of the Republican primary candidates were at all, not just further right than Romney.

Huntsman would make a great president IMO. But he's far to moderate to get through the primary.

I also fear the next batch of candidates will be further to the right if Romney loses (and especially if he wins as that would vindicate them). But who knows, maybe future events will break the Republicans fixation on the extreme right?

 

[Antilogic]

I'd ignore the candidates like Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich. They were in it too long and piled on too many unfavorables, especially Gingrich. Santorum is the only one who might try the "Romney failed because he wasn't conservative enough!" line and get some traction, but I don't think he will have the support base in 2016 to go anywhere.

I forget Huntsman too, he's a severe conservative who for some inane reason is viewed as a moderate because he worked as an ambassador in the Obama administration. Republicans would be wise to run him again.

 

[downtown]

My understanding was that Hillary is retiring for good to focus on being a Grandmother. She'll be over 70 in 2016 I think.

 

[bhsup]

If her legacy means anything to her, it's the perfect time to bow out. She's more or less universally respected except for people too hard-core to ever say anythng good about someone on the other side of the aisle.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

My understanding was that Hillary is retiring for good to focus on being a Grandmother. She'll be over 70 in 2016 I think.

Didn't stop the Gimper. Of course, I don't think he cared much about his children/grandchildren from what I've heard.