Britain is leaving the EU

[Thorgalaeg]

But pos-apocalyptic wastelands are extremely cool! And there are lots of smoking hot warrior girls who will want to socialize with you If you are a tough guy like Mel Gibson or Denzel Washington.

Trump shenanigans with North Korea is a much more probable cause of wastelization though.

 

[Agent327]

Statistically speaking the chance is higher of the US not playing nice. But basically any nuclear nation has a fair shot.

You did not just miss the point. You missed posting it in the appropriate threat. I assume that you were a little busy.

I'm afraid that assumption does not apply. But perhaps you should apply your suggestion to yourself. (By the way, you missed the point.)

 

[Broken_Erika]

But not wars that had the potential to end human civilization. I swear, if I have to live in a Fallout/Book of Eli post-apocalyptic wasteland because Europeans couldn't play nice, I'm going to be very upset.

Get yourself a car with a good V8 engine and drive around as the Mad Commodore. Maybe have an AI built into the car so you can call it "The Last Vic-20"
*In case you are wondering; I am not crazy, my mind just happens to be a more entertaining place.

 

[Kyriakos]

Nuclear war between Britain and the EU wouldn't make sense even if war itself could make sense there. Only Britain and France have nukes, and not that many of those either afaik.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Yes, how does this relate to the EU treating human refugees as a 'trade package deal' with Erdogan's Turkey? (Oh wait, did I miss your 'point' here? No, I don't think I did.)

You know very well that the "EU treating human refugees as a 'trade package deal'
with Erdogan's Turkey" has nothing to do with the thread title of Britain leaving the EU.

Of course the Remainers have no answer to the principles of democratic self
determination, so any distraction may be thrown in to avoid addressing that.

 

[Cheetah]

So some more Brexit/UK news:

Up to 100,000 UK jobs at risk as Merkel and Juncker ally warns on euro clearing

EU lawmaker Manfred Weber says sector must relocate out of City of London after Brexit

The future of an estimated 100,000 jobs has been plunged into doubt after a close political ally of the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and president of the European commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, warned that a prized sector in the City of London must relocate to EU soil after Brexit.

Manfred Weber, the leader of the centre-right European people’s party – the largest political group in the European parliament, to which both the German chancellor and the commission president belong – told reporters that euro-denominated clearing could no longer be undertaken in the City when the UK leaves the EU.

[...]

Six months ago, the head of the London Stock Exchange, Xavier Rolet, said at least 100,000 positions could be lost if the City’s clearing houses lost their ability to process euro-denominated transactions.

Talking in September, Rolet said he was confident the City would not be stripped of the business, but he went on to say that job losses would not be limited to London but shed across the UK in risk management, compliance, middle office and back-office support functions.

A recent report from the accountants Ernst & Young echoed those comments, but additionally claimed that losing the business could have “a significant domino effect on jobs and revenue”, hitting up to 232,000 workers throughout the UK.

And some happier news:

EU will release 60 million euros to help Britain repair 2015-16 flood damage

Britain will get 60 million euros (51.3 million pounds) from the European Union to repair damage caused by the floods last year, a lawmaker said on Tuesday.

Britain had asked for EU support to rebuild infrastructure damaged by heavy rains in the winter of 2015-16. European Parliament lawmakers will approve the grants on Wednesday, clearing the way for the funds to be disbursed, parliament officials said.

"When one member state has a problem, others actively collaborate and help. The UK will benefit from EU solidarity despite Brexit and the triggering of Article 50", said the lawmaker in charge of the dossier, Spanish conservative José Manuel Fernandes.

[...]

The aid to the flood-stricken regions will come from the EU Solidarity Fund, which is used to help countries hit by natural disasters. It is the second time that Britain has received financial support from the fund since it was set up in 2002.

In total, Britain has been allocated more than 220 million euros in EU solidarity aid, making the country the third largest beneficiary after Italy and Germany. The former was hit in the last decade by several earthquakes and floods; the latter by floods.

 

[Lexicus]

Good piece about Brexit in the Baffler.

https://thebaffler.com/war-of-nerves/brexit-austerity-penny

 

[Broken_Erika]

Awesome article.

 

[Cheetah]

Good piece about Brexit in the Baffler.

https://thebaffler.com/war-of-nerves/brexit-austerity-penny

Heh.

The mood in Britain since June has been one of numb shock teetering into ugly bickering. Racists are blaming immigrants, Blairites are blaming Corbyn, Tories are blaming each other, Scotland is blaming England, London is blaming Cornwall, the middle classes are blaming the poor, the poor are blaming “metropolitan elites,” Europeans are blaming all of us, and Boris Johnson has farted and left the room.

 

[Arakhor]

Of course the Remainers have no answer to the principles of democratic self determination, so any distraction may be thrown in to avoid addressing that.

You steadfastly refuse to accept responsibility for every Leaver, so why should a Dutch person of all people be forced to take responsibility for all Remainers? People who are that quick to claim victory clearly feel in need of doing so.

 

[Lexicus]

You steadfastly refuse to accept responsibility for every Leaver, so why should a Dutch person of all people be forced to take responsibility for all Remainers? People who are that quick to claim victory clearly feel in need of doing so.

Didn't you know? Every Leaver is unique and important. Remoaners, on the other hand, are an undifferentiated (and decidedly swarthy) whining mass.

 

[Cheetah]

Good piece about Brexit in the Baffler.

https://thebaffler.com/war-of-nerves/brexit-austerity-penny

So I finally read the whole thing. It's a really good read.

Though I've started to feel really bad for the Brits in the last couple of days, and this didn't help.

[...]

We aren’t a plucky little island bravely fighting a monstrous enemy. We have been conned. That is deeply, profoundly embarrassing. Now we are torpedoing our economy and throw our remaining shreds of social decency overboard as ballast to our sinking collective pride, because we can’t bring ourselves to admit that we made a mistake.

[...]

I want a country with a future, rather than a creatively edited past to cling to as we mutter ourselves to sleep. We’ll get through Brexit like we get through everything else in Britain: grudgingly, and with far more deference to the idiots who caused this mess than is due. We’ll muddle along. Some people, of course, will die, deaths of despair or neglect or violence, but most of us will stumble on, living smaller, meaner lives and trying to remember the shape of the future we used to hope for, and that breaks my heart. I’m glad: it proves it’s still working.

I went by r/unitedkingdom and r/ukpolitics today. They are, supposedly, pro-EU and anti-Brexit for the former, and anti-EU and pro-Brexit for the latter. Neither of the subs managed to have any news items up for discussion which weren't rather grim in their outlook... Except for the already mentioned EU relief to the UK, the best I could see was May not wearing a headscarf while in Saudi Arabia, and that Sadiq Khan is more popular than Corbyn, but those are more neutral than positive.

Most everything else seems to be one of the following:

- The Sun and the Telegraph declaring war on Spain.
- Tories ignoring facts they don't like about Brexit.
- The UK government's Brexit plan being disastrous and still failing to live up to even that standard.
- Berners-Lee opposed to UK and US net plans.
- The NHS being criticised over having chaplains and too many female doctors.
- Britains manufacturing continuing to "cool down".
- EU politicians reiterating that the leavers promised things they can't deliver, and that business will/must move to the EU.
- And meanwhile, half the UK is up in arms over chocolate eggs.

In a half-lauding/half-mocking way, EU-supporters have started to talk of the unstoppable Schultz-train and 'keine bremsen'. But if there's one runaway train without breaks in Europe atm, it's probably the UK...

 

[Commodore]

Nuclear war between Britain and the EU wouldn't make sense even if war itself could make sense there. Only Britain and France have nukes, and not that many of those either afaik.

You think Russia, China, and the US are going to stay out of a war that breaks out in Europe? China maybe, simply because of the distance, but the US and Russia would most certainly get involved. Not to mention the other brushfire wars that would break out all over the globe as the world's major powers are busy fighting each other.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Good piece about Brexit in the Baffler.
https://thebaffler.com/war-of-nerves/brexit-austerity-penny

But Austerity only works for Germany ? (Make Greater Germany again j/k )
The sad thing is that we are going to see more EU countries follow the same path, some of it no doubt Germany's fault for the lost decade of Austerity, most of the problems though as pointed out are self inflicted.

 

[Agent327]

Best not make predictions on the future.

You know very well that the "EU treating human refugees as a 'trade package deal'
with Erdogan's Turkey" has nothing to do with the thread title of Britain leaving the EU.

Of course the Remainers have no answer to the principles of democratic self
determination, so any distraction may be thrown in to avoid addressing that.

Hm. Except, of course, I wasn't one bringing up human rights.

And if the UK chooses to join the UK and then leave it (both under Conservative governments), I have no problem whatsoever with that. The UK might, though.

 

[Gen.Mannerheim]

Historically it's FAR from just the Euro — if monetary unions are supposed to be the Death Of National Sovereignty. Most of us only really were sovereign for the period following WWI, when all nations rushed to close their borders and try to distance themselves from everyone else.

The problem is that pre-WWI unions are not exactly an easy comparison to the Euro with its common central bank.Their histories are almost defined by the efforts that states within the Unions tried to circumvent the requirements of their respective unions, almost from the day they joined. And until the post-WWI period, the main focus on a monetary union was to establish a standard quantity to the amount of precious metals in the coinage to aid in their ease of use in international transactions, not how much money they were allowed to mint.

Also a lesson from the Latin Monetary Union: Don't let Greece join! It never works out well...

 

[Takhisis]

I finally found where you lot'd gone off to.

Actually, Article 50 does not provide for withdrawing the notification.

The man who wrote the article actually said on TV that Article 50 was never meant to be used.

Herzliche willkommen nach Europa!

You've brought back memories of Baltic Germans I used to know. All dead by now, but even in this thread it made me a smile.

So backdooring to the EU via Norway then ? Geologically that is pretty umm strange ?

Nah, the Norwegians are testing the technology with this new sea tunnel they're digging out.

Farage is political pond slime. The PM's opinion on Brexit is almost as shifty as her government's official position, but she is very definitely against IndyRef2. I think it's a foolish idea, but this is the SNP.

See the rest of TF's post/article I quote just below for the analysis on support indexes (another climb, even smaller, of just 6 percentage posts would get the SNP over the finishing line.

Regarding power structures, the fact that a province of Canada has more powers than the devolved government rankles the minds of many people even if they'd vote no.
Also, the fact that significant support for the No vote in 2014 came from the express assurance that Scotland wouldn't be able to get even near the EU because the Spaniards would veto it so Scots had better stay put has now gone down the figurative drain.

May can't give her a referendum right now because May flatly does not possess that authority: parliament does. May seems intent on carrying herself like some sort of presidential dictator, but she's either bluffing or very deeply confused.

Bluffing on the wrong deck of cards. ‘Don't let the Germans win the peace of '45’ and ‘defend Gibraltar’ are their current xenophobic buzzwords.

*Gasp* The Royal Navy using a foreign built ship?

#trident

The Gibraltar issue is just a silly storm in a tea cup, but if Spain persists then the UK could always respond by backing independence for Catalonia and backing Morocco's claim to Ceuta and Melilla.

Catalonia balanced out by Scotland and the northern African possessions more than balanced out by Northern Ireland, so they'd better not try that one.

Obviously, the Gibraltar situation is a convenient drum to beat to distract the masses in Spain, when accusations of corruption are flying around in Madrid, but there is also the desire for "reunification" in Spain. It's reasonable to assume there will be another attempt by Spain to gain sovereignty over Gibraltar over the next few years.

Yes and no. Spanish governments, especially the PP, would go on about Gibraltar even if Spain was #1 in the world.

You think Russia, China, and the US are going to stay out of a war that breaks out in Europe? China maybe, simply because of the distance, but the US and Russia would most certainly get involved. Not to mention the other brushfire wars that would break out all over the globe as the world's major powers are busy fighting each other.

China'd sit back and deepen their penetration of South America and Africa, I'd say.

 

[ori]

The man who wrote the article actually said on TV that Article 50 was never meant to be used.

I am actually certain of that - the way it is phrased is the worst possible way for the leaving party (as it loses a lot of leeway in any negotitations with the pretty much automatic cutoff and lack of a way to stop the process) and it was almost certainly phrased that way to point to it as an option implemented (which was argued for prior to its insertion) while at the same time strongly discouraging anyone from even thinking about going that route. Now as is often the case that line of political thinking failed miserably leading to more problems than having a workable withdrawal process would ever have created.

 

[Takhisis]

When I watched the interview I got the impression that the man was implying that, as they thought that nobody would ever leave the EU because it was intrinsecally a Good Thing™, they should just write something in and leave it at that, never bothering to think: what if somebody actually wanted to use it?

 

[EnglishEdward]

Actually I think that Article 50 is quite well written.

The qualified majority prevents any member state demanding last day concessions.

The two year cut off is essential to prevent negotiations dragging on indefinitely.
.And the requirement for unanimity before extending that period discourages further delay.

These two provisions also have the benefit that they discourage any member state from
dramatically misusing the withdrawal provision merely in an attempt to obtain concessions.

And there is nothing there to support exit or post exit claims for alimony.

My only concern is that a litigant may attempt to claim at the ECJ that the "in accordance with its
own constitutional requirements" only applies only to preexisting constitutional requirements.
I'd expect such a claim to fail now the UK passed its Act, but it is an opportunity for obstructionism.