Can a Marxist revolutionary get elected president and sort out the economy?

Can a Marxist turn around the Sri Lankan economy?


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Says the man posting the last post on a page.
 
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Back to oblivion you go.
 
Getting back to the topic at hand and not well-versed in Marxist theory, are there necessarily a set of policies associated with this candidate, his party, and the particulars to Sri Lanka? The Cold War being over, the old doctrine of “nationalize everything, get aid from Moscow” doesn’t seem to apply—even formerly Marxist-Leninist governments in Angola, Mozambique, Vietnam, and Laos have had to abandon this (to whatever extent they adopted it.)

I don’t think Sri Lanka is the kind of a place where the left-wing populist Chavismo or Daniel Ortega type can take over, run everything into the ground, and just complain about America. Our involvement in the region hasn’t been that heavy, so the lingering anti-Americanism doesn’t fly.

Personally, I wouldn’t be worried about it.
 
Dissanayake ran as the candidate for the National People's Power (NPP) alliance, which includes his Janatha Vimukhti Peremuna (JVP) party that traditionally championed Marxist economic policies centred on protectionism and state intervention.

Dissanayake could seek changes to the bondholder deal. He has also promised to seek amendments to taxation goals under the IMF programme but has committed to repaying debt.

Dissanayake said he will have discussions with the IMF to adjust their programme and reduce taxes and free up public revenue for tax relief and investment. He has pledged to remove VAT on some health, education and food items. But the measures could affect fiscal deficit targets set under the IMF deal.

Dissanayake has promised to revamp state companies to make them more profitable, create 20,000 new teaching jobs, and create more opportunities in key sectors such as tourism. He has also pledged to expand existing welfare schemes.

Which parts of any of these initiatives are Marxist in nature though? The only one I see is the welfare one maybe. A strong welfare/safety net is not necessarily a Marxist idea though. I mean, many completely non-Marxist societies enjoy strong welfare support for its citizens and there's plenty of Marxist examples from history where the opposite is true. Shouldn't there be some references to class struggle and how this will be addressed in this guy's platform? Or is this party/candidate not really drawing from the Marxist playbook for solutions here, while sticking to the Marxist branding for whatever reason?
 
I want to question exactly how Marxist this guy is… meanwhile, my mother was panicking and said she’d never want to go back to Sri Lanka while anyone who has ever called themselves communist was in charge. When I brought up the point that there wasn’t actually anything to panic about yet, she told me she had lived through the cultural revolution in China and that I didn’t know what it was like…

I have not heard much so far about his policies other than renegotiate with the IMF, get a Parliament that will agree with us, and… make politics friendly?
 
Sri Lanka approves controversial foreign debt deal

Sri Lanka's new government has approved a controversial restructure of US$14.7 billion in foreign commercial credit tentatively agreed by its predecessor, the finance ministry said Saturday (Oct 5).

Former leader Ranil Wickremesinghe announced a deal with international sovereign bondholders and the China Development Bank just two days before he lost the presidential elections last month.

The new leftist President Anura Kumara Dissanayake had called for better terms, but after two days of talks with an IMF delegation in Colombo, his government said it would honour his predecessor's deal.

"Sri Lankan authorities confirm their endorsement of ... the agreement in principle terms as announced on September 19," the finance ministry said in a statement.

The debt restructuring is a key International Monetary Fund demand to rebuild the island's economy, which suffered its worst crisis in 2022 when it shrank by 7.8 per cent.

In June, the government concluded a deal with its bilateral lenders to restructure its official credit amounting to US$6 billion.

Under the deal announced on Sep 19, private creditors holding more than half of international sovereign bonds and foreign commercial loans to the South Asian nation agreed to a 27 per cent haircut on their loans.

They also agreed to a further 11 per cent reduction on the interest owed to them.

International sovereign bonds account for US$12.5 billion and the balance of US$2.2 billion is owed to the China Development Bank.

Sri Lanka's external debt stood at US$46 billion at the time of its foreign debt default in 2022, when it ran out of foreign exchange to finance even the most essential imports such as food and fuel.

The bond restructuring endorsed by the new government must still go to parliament for ratification.

Dissanayake dissolved the assembly days after he was sworn in and called a snap election for Nov 14, a year ahead of schedule. The legislature is set to have its first session on Nov 21.
 
I want to question exactly how Marxist this guy is… meanwhile, my mother was panicking and said she’d never want to go back to Sri Lanka while anyone who has ever called themselves communist was in charge. When I brought up the point that there wasn’t actually anything to panic about yet, she told me she had lived through the cultural revolution in China and that I didn’t know what it was like…

I have not heard much so far about his policies other than renegotiate with the IMF, get a Parliament that will agree with us, and… make politics friendly?

Cultural revolution was fairly insane even by Commie standards.

Mum China-Taiwan-NZ?
 
We came to NZ just after the Christchurch earthquakes in 2011.
 
Oh, she’s never been to Taiwan, she would like to though.
 
Sri Lanka parliamentary elections 2024

Sri Lankans will cast ballots in a snap parliamentary election on Thursday, months after electing a Marxist-leaning president in the Indian island nation’s first election since the 2022 economic meltdown and political crisis.

Dissanayake’s National People’s Power (NPP) alliance has just three seats in the outgoing parliament, but opinion polls give the bloc an edge over parties that have ruled the island nation since its independence in 1948.

Here’s a look at the significance of the elections and how they could affect Dissanayake’s political vision for the country of 22 million.

What time does the election start in Sri Lanka?

Polls open between 7am (01:30 GMT) and 4pm (10:30 GMT) local time.

How do parliamentary elections in Sri Lanka work?

  • An independent body called the Election Commission of Sri Lanka (ECSL) oversees the election.
  • There are 225 seats in the unicameral parliament, and all of them are up for grabs this election. All members are elected for a five-year term. But 29 out of 225 seats are decided indirectly through a national list.
  • Each party or independent group contesting the election submits a list of candidates for the national list. The number of national list candidates for each party is chosen based on the number of votes they win.
  • Retired commissioner-general of elections, MM Mohamed, explained the process to the local publication, EconomyNext, in 2020. According to the publication, the formula applied for the number of national list candidates for a party is: the number of votes won by the party divided by the number of total votes cast, multiplied by 29.
  • A party needs to secure 113 seats to secure a win in the parliament.
  • There are 17 million registered voters out of Sri Lanka’s 22 million population, according to the ECSL.
  • Voting will be conducted at 13,421 polling stations across the country, according to the ECSL.
  • Votes are cast with paper ballots, and voters are required to show valid identification, such as a National Identity Card (NIC), passport, driving licence, senior citizens identity card, government pensioners’ identity card or identity card issued to clergy.
  • Police, army and other public servants who cannot cast their votes in person on election day vote through postal ballots in advance.

What’s at stake?

Dissanayake, who has been critical of the “old political guard”, has pledged to abolish the country’s executive presidency, a system under which power is largely centralised under the president. The executive presidency, which first came into existence under President JR Jayawardene in 1978, has been widely criticised in the country for years, but no political party, once in power, has scrapped it until now. The system has in recent years been blamed by critics for the country’s economic and political crises.

Dissanayake has promised to fight corruption and end austerity measures imposed by his predecessor, Ranil Wickremesinghe, as part of the bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

“At stake is the ability of newly-elected President Dissanayake to pursue the ambitious agenda that won him election in September,” Alan Keenan, a senior consultant on Sri Lanka for the Belgium-based think tank International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera.

Dissanayake’s NPP alliance would need a parliamentary majority to pass laws and requires a two-thirds majority to bring constitutional amendments.

Which party is expected to win the parliament?

Political analysts predict that Dissanayake’s NPP would win a majority, having gained popularity since the presidential election.

“The NPP is almost certain to do well – the only question is how well. Most observers – and the limited polls available – suggest they will win a majority,” Keenan, from the International Crisis Group, said.

What do opinion polls say?

In a press release on Monday, pollster Institute for Health Policy (IHP) said that their poll had suffered an increased amount of response bias because respondents were over-reporting their support for the NPP.

The IHP still released estimates based on polling data but warned that there is likely a large margin of error associated with it.

According to the estimates, the support at the end of October or early November for the NPP was 53 percent of all adults. This is followed by the SJB with 26 percent of support, National Democratic Front (NDF) with 9 percent, SLPP with 7 percent and the ITAK with 2 percent.

Before IHP reported this bias, the last survey data from August showed NPP and SJB neck-and-neck, with the SJB at 29 percent and NPP at 28 percent. This was followed by the SLPP with 19 percent of the support.

When will results be released?

The final numbers are likely to be known a day or two after the polling. Results were announced within two days of polling in 2020.

A total of 2,034 vote-counting centres have been set up for this parliamentary election.

Why is this election critical for Dissanayake?

While Dissanayake can pass executive orders, he needs the support of the parliament to pass laws.

Gunawardena said that the question is whether there will be forces in the new parliament that can hold the NPP accountable for its promises to the people.

Keenan from the International Crisis Group says NPP is “less certain, and less likely, to win the two-thirds majority needed to change the constitution – one of Dissanayake’s campaign pledges”.

In previous elections, the votes of ethnic minorities, including the Tamil, Moor, Muslim and Burgher communities, have been critical. Dissanayake would need political support from these groups.

In the past, Dissanayake backed the Rajapaksa government’s war against the Tamil Tigers. The decades of armed rebellion by the Tamil rebels was crushed in 2009 under President Mahinda Rajapaksa, Rajapaksa’s brother.
 
Sri Lanka’s leftist ruling coalition headed for landslide election win

Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s leftist coalition is on track for a landslide victory in snap elections, delivering the Marxist-leaning leader a powerful mandate to ease punishing austerity measures in the crisis-stricken nation.

With well over half of the ballots counted on Friday morning, Dissanayake’s National People’s Power (NPP) was far ahead of the opposition alliance Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) with 63 percent of the vote, according to early results from the country’s Election Commission.

The NPP had taken 97 seats in the 225-member parliament, compared with 26 seats for the SBJ, and was leading in all but one of 22 electoral districts, according to the results.

Voter turnout in Thursday’s vote was about 65 percent, according to the election commission, less than in September’s presidential election when nearly 80 percent of eligible voters cast a ballot.

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The party of Sri Lanka’s new Marxist-leaning President Anura Kumara Dissanayake won a two-thirds majority in parliament, according to official election results Friday, providing a strong mandate for his program for economic revival.

Dissanayake’s National People’s Power Party won 159 of the 225 seats, according to the Elections Commission.

The Samagi Jana Balawegaya, or United People’s Power Party, led by opposition leader Sajith Premadasa had 40 seats and was in second place.
 
The CIA are going to accidentally wander into Sri Lanka, huh.
 
Sri Lanka leader reappoints Amarasuriya as PM, retains finance and defence

Sri Lanka’s Marxist-leaning President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has reappointed educationist Harini Amarasuriya as the country’s prime minister after sweeping the snap parliamentary elections last week.

Dissanayake on Monday picked a 21-member cabinet, retaining the key defence and finance portfolios as he plans sweeping reforms, including a campaign promise of a new constitution, and to fight corruption in a nation recovering from its worst economic crisis.

Amarasuriya, 54, will also hold the ministries of education, higher education as well as vocational training. She was first appointed as the prime minister in September to serve in the interim government after Dissanayake won the presidential election, making her the first woman to head the national government in 24 years.

Veteran legislator Vijitha Herath has been appointed the foreign minister. Ananda Wijepala is the new public security and parliamentary affairs minister, while Bimal Rathnayake has been tapped as transport, highways, ports and civil aviation minister.

With a two-thirds majority, Dissanayake, 55, can now amend the constitution. The NPP had promised a referendum on a new constitution.

“We must ensure that this absolute power does not corrupt us absolutely,” Dissanayake told at the swearing-in ceremony.

“This huge power that has been given to us must be exercised with responsibility, to fulfil the aspirations of the people who had been oppressed economically and politically for too long.”

The new government holds its first parliamentary sitting on Thursday. It is expected to prepare a budget for 2025 in line with the ongoing IMF bailout secured by the previous government. An IMF delegation is on a weeklong trip to the island nation to hold talks with the new government as well as conduct a third review of Sri Lanka’s economic reform programme of $2.9bn.
 
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