Can everyone in the world live like you/me?

Well it's not just economic, there are cultural barriers. American consumerism and the desire for big gas guzzling vehicles, the desire to drive over all else, or environmentally hazardous Asian fishing practices, or whatever the local poison may be.

I think one of the big first steps that is feasible in the next 20-30 years is a big change to more efficient public transit, such as high speed rail, electric cars, and reduce the US use of coal power. Get consumers use to more efficient/clean ways of getting around an clean up the power sources for the electricity they are using while doing so. The cultural barrier needs to change there. Businesses need to cooperate in that regard and attitudes about driving need to change slightly. Better planning of new communities so that more people grow up in mixed use areas that put an emphasis on walking will also help. This is a positive trend amongst some West and East Coast urban planners. Suburban sprawl needs to go away as it encourages unsustainable living--the need for multiple cars, stocking up on mass produced and processed foods, traveling long distances for everything, sedentary lifestyles (no walking) etc.

Food presents the bigger issue to me. Mass farming of all kinds--agriculture, fisheries, dairy--is a huge source of carbon emissions and environmental problems of all sorts, not to mention increasing health problems. The culture barrier is here also but the organic craze/fad or whatever you want to call it was in my opinion an example of how you chip away at these barriers. Even though some of it is not really what it is chalked up to be. What I don't know is how we can continue to produce "natural" foods, like, for instance, wild caught fish, for an ever increasing population. I assume there are sustainable ways to farm or mass produce food, I also assume that they are more expensive. I suspect that diets may need to change. I know American diets could use a big shift. Once again, businesses can aid in this change but we need a consumer push for it, ala the Organic craze.

As for China and India though, I don't know. While I am not a huge fan of cap and trade we need to develop some sort of international means of curbing emissions. Better monitoring would be a welcome start and we are already seeing that in volunteer cap and trade programs like Chicago's exchange program, or mandatory ones proposed by the EPA and California. Modern improvements in energy usage and food production will probably have to start in Europe and the US and more developed parts of Asia like Japan and Korea.

Water I am totally in the dark about but I know we will face a water shortage in many parts of the world. Yemen, for instance, is nearly dry and its ancient wells are being used on totally wasteful Khat farming, while the country is also sporting a totally unsustainable high birth rate that spells future doom and gloom.
 
It really really really drives me crazy when I see people driving around in giant vans or SUVs or pickup trucks alone and they don't need them. Especially when they're very shiny and clean.
 
I agree except I don’t with the economics part. I think the model is wrong esp for natural resources. It may make economic sense for China to build 1 new coal plant a week to support the manufacture of junk to sell to me but who is recovering the external costs of this strategy? If global warming puts Bangladesh under water how much is that worth? Who is paying for that? I believe the CIA has calculated that climate change can be expected to lead to more displaced persons, political instability, wars. Who is paying for this? If I run a company it is my job to maximize profits and it is in my own personal interest to do this over a very short timeframe. If I don’t use my position to buy off politicians to prevent them from recovering the externalities of pollution, land destruction etc. I will be replaced with someone who will. As a commodity get scarce the price will go up and presumably lead to development of competing technology but not before I first remove all regulation and attempts to recover external cost as people scream for the price to remain stable. How long does it take to switch economies around to use new resources that may require massive infrastructure investment and development?


I think there's an issue in separating what is actually an "economic" problem from what should be more correctly labeled a "political" problem.

Economics recognizes that "markets", left to their own devices, do not inherently act efficiently or price externalities correctly. In short, markets sometimes fail. That is inherent to the system. It requires politics to correct market failure. Economics is about recognizing what markets can do and how they will do it. It takes politics to act for the purpose correcting the flaws in the way markets operate.

The failures are political failures. If we fail to price in the damage from coal, then that is a political failure. Because except for the radials, it is well understood that the markets are not going to price for that. Since we know, with certainty, that markets are not going to price that in, is it really an economic problem, or a political problem, that we do not take the steps needed to correct the market failure?

When we know that a problem is looming, and refuse to do anything about it, that's a political problem. That's a people problem. When someone says they will not pay a penny to solve a problem that comes from a market failure, that's a people problem.

I am bearish on people and politics because when we know we are at the limits of what "free" markets do, then people and government must act. And in all too many cases, they don't. And that's a people problem. It is people putting themselves and their own selfishness in front of their responsibilities that they owe.

People gain from externalities. And so want a free lunch.

TANSTAAFL still always applies. And it takes politics to counter it. Everyone wants a free lunch.

Environmental destruction is a free lunch for those who benefit from it. Because they are not paying the costs of it. Those who bear the costs later on don't get compensation.

The limiting factor on whether everyone can have a first world lifestyle really is oil and coal. Oil and coal really are such a cheap and effective source of energy that they encourage people to live in the now rather than plan for the future.
 
The failures are political failures. If we fail to price in the damage from coal, then that is a political failure. Because except for the radials, it is well understood that the markets are not going to price for that. Since we know, with certainty, that markets are not going to price that in, is it really an economic problem, or a political problem, that we do not take the steps needed to correct the market failure?
Well it is an interesting question whether you call it economic or political. Is there really a way for capitalism and democracy to function in a way that recovers these externalities? The 6 biggest oil and gas producers in the US made as best I can tell $36B last quarter while the total EPA budget for 2010 was $10B. They of course have to cover regulation on many other industries like chemical and power utilities and manufacturing etc. Not to mention that they can only enforce laws that congress enacts and as we all know they can be bought for less than a 50yr old one legged crack whore. Given the wealth generated by capitalist endeavors and the increasing size of corporations is it really possible for politics to act as a control on these entities? These are amoral entities that are designed and required to maximize profits. If they didn’t buy off the politicians to maximize those profits they’ed be fired. I’m not sure it can work. We got the EPA after the air and water became so obviously fouled that rivers were catching on fire and industries have been working ever since to neuter it. Same with banking regs. great depression required to get regs. This time around as soon as they got stabilized they started using their TARP $$ to block reforms. But they needn’t have worried as they already owned the entire Republican party and about 2/3s of the Dems. See my sig for my view on this topic. Whether this is a problem inherent in economics or politics is your choice but I’d like to know a solution.
 
Absent a disastrous level of environmental destruction staring folks in the face, or strong persuasive leadership, you need to make sustainable practices profitable. All the various green trends lately are examples of companies seeing profits in better corporate behavior. (Better is a relative term.)

Right now the Republicans have expertly tied in ideas of "freedom" and job creation with environmental de-regulation. E.g. if you let the EPA cap GHG emissions you are 1) killing jobs and 2) a big government socialist. Or if you want to continue to protect national parks from road building or oil drilling you are a tree-hugging hippy who probably hates guns and thus, freedom. If companies want to be better stewards of the environment you can ignore political wrangling for alot of your goals. I realize this angle only goes so far but I don't think you get anywhere ignoring it completely.
 
Even the Dark Ages were only dark from a Euro-centric point of view. Don't forget about the Middle East/China (whose technological advances were eventually adopted by the Europeans).
Ah, no.

"Dark Ages" were dark not because life sucked (it sucked for most people before then, and it sucked for most people after then), they were dark because we have an extremely limited understanding of what the hell was going on. The relative technology and living standards of Europeans, Middle Easterners, and Chinese had nothing to do with it - they couldn't have, as life sucked for most non-Euros too.
 
All the various green trends lately are examples of companies seeing profits in better corporate behavior. (Better is a relative term.)

Sure but it's a warm fuzzy advertizing ploy for many I think. BP, Exxon etc. all have their nice well spoken black guy in commercials telling us how they want to be good stewards and work for green energy bla bla while killing real reform with lobbiests. I’m sure some companies are doing good things but how will I know. They can drop a few 10s of millions on commercials w/o breaking a sweat who is going to tell me if they’re lying. Who has the $$ to investigate it and counter the propaganda? What is the economics to support that counter?

Right now the Republicans have expertly tied in ideas of "freedom" and job creation with environmental de-regulation. I.e. if you let the EPA cap GHG emissions you are 1) killing jobs and 2) a big government socialist. Or if you want to continue to protect national parks from road building or oil drilling you are a tree-hugging hippy who probably hates guns and thus, freedom.

And this is bought and paid for by the same companies running the warm fuzzy commercials.

If companies want to be better stewards of the environment you can ignore political wrangling for alot of your goals. I realize this angle only goes so far but I don't think you get anywhere ignoring it completely.

But why would they want this? Sure if it cuts costs or increases profits they will and that is good but it will not ever be for some moral reason.
 
Ah, no.

"Dark Ages" were dark not because life sucked (it sucked for most people before then, and it sucked for most people after then), they were dark because we have an extremely limited understanding of what the hell was going on. The relative technology and living standards of Europeans, Middle Easterners, and Chinese had nothing to do with it - they couldn't have, as life sucked for most non-Euros too.

I hope I didn't come off as saying life anywhere during the Dark Ages was good by today's standards. I was simply disagreeing to another's assertion that the Dark Ages were a time where technology failed to improve living standards.
 
Sure but it's a warm fuzzy advertizing ploy for many I think. BP, Exxon etc. all have their nice well spoken black guy in commercials telling us how they want to be good stewards and work for green energy bla bla while killing real reform with lobbiests. I’m sure some companies are doing good things but how will I know. They can drop a few 10s of millions on commercials w/o breaking a sweat who is going to tell me if they’re lying. Who has the $$ to investigate it and counter the propaganda? What is the economics to support that counter?

Well I think the fossil fuel industry is the hardest industry to change and I agree their green stuff is mostly BS. Every sector needs 1) consumer shift, 2) industry shift and 3) government regulation and I think depending on the industry, you need more of one or the other, and things happen in different orders. In the oil industry I think you need much more government regulation and policy choices aimed at changing consumer choices. But you need an initial consumer shift to make these regulations more palatable which is why I think it is so important that we make a culture shift away from reliance on the automobile.

Example: my google-fu may be off today as this was more difficult than I thought to find, but according to Wiki (I was looking for something other than Wiki) we use about of a 1/3 of our annual oil on gasoline for private cars. If we cut that in half by 20 years, that's a minor dent in overall consumption but it's probably a big enough dent to make major oil companies take notice of a trend away from using gasoline. Perhaps it is a bigger economic dent to them, I don't know, maybe I am missing something in the gasoline chain of commerce. Shifting public reliance away from the automobile can be done in a much less apparent manner than big, obvious government regulatory schemes directly attacking oil companies--the same way the oil and auto companies slowly but stealthily shifted the public towards total reliance on the automobile. More public transportation, more mixed use communities encouraging walking, more urbanization and less suburbanization. Less McMansions, less suburban sprawl through careful zoning and city planning. This is all government driven but it is local and it is change wanted by local communities, if it happens. On a national scale nothing significant can get done because as you pointed out, the system is rigged. It is possible to have a generational shift however if you do it incrementally on a smaller scale. If we have a public shift away from reliance on the car, the more direct government regulation aimed at more sustainable energy use becomes easier because there would be an invested political base in alternatives.

Then of course there are other things that would help--eating more locally produced food, for instance, and therefore lowering the emissions from transportation for food produced from far, far away. There are a ton of things consumers can do and to me it is a policy discussion of how to do it. I think generally the focus should be on both the consumer and the producer. The same way we have been slowly changed into this totally dependent and blind society we can hopefully shift into a more aware and conscious society. For food, for instance, we could make more information available to consumers on packaging. CA wanted to introduce a bill that would show the GHG emissions used for each food item sold in a store. It died in committee, and we arguably don't have the infrastructure to accurately measure it yet, but I think arming consumers with information is a helpful step and it would at least force producers to change in the same way introducing nutritional facts created an industry change. Again, like the whole Organic craze. Now big bad evil Wal Mart is one of the biggest organic suppliers in the Nation.

But why would they want this? Sure if it cuts costs or increases profits they will and that is good but it will not ever be for some moral reason.

Sure, but who says corporations will ever act based on morality. If we want corporations to act based on morals we are all doomed. There has to be a financial incentive even if it is artificially created, to an extent.
 
Sometimes I dont understand the people who are against the green shift, whats wrong with ending the dependence on fossil fuels which will run out anyways?
 
@Illram I certainly agree with your general premise with consumer change and certainly city design is a big one. Where I live is mixed use and I biked to work today. If I had safer better bike routes I would do it more but it is quite a way on very busy roads and I’ve been a bit spooked lately. This stuff slowly seeps in but we also live in California where these things are more appreciated. Also, environmental concerns are themselves a bit of an upper middle class luxury. It will be a long time before they become a major concern of the developing middle class in China or India I think. Cultural shift is slow and amorphous and is easily supplanted by economic considerations. Many of those economic interests are huge rich and focused so I am somewhat pessimistic that needed changes will take place fast enough to avert a crisis. I mean it is obvious that we in the US should have a large energy tax and use the $ for transition to more efficiency, green tech and energy R&D. It is also obvious that this has 0% chance of becoming a reality.
 
Sometimes I dont understand the people who are against the green shift, whats wrong with ending the dependence on fossil fuels which will run out anyways?
Greed. QED.

But the problem isn't that we don't have enough food. We're already producing enough to feed the whole planet comfortably. What we have is a distribution and pricing problem; we in the West grow more than we need, but much of it is wasted, and price speculation means the prices of even staple foods are rising beyond what the third world can afford to pay. An increase of a few cents in price can make a big difference to them.
Oh, I agree, we have the food. For now.

What I'm worried for is the state of agriculture in the coming years. The glaciers are melting, temperatures are rising, and as the zones of aridity shift, the current major world breadbaskets are in danger of drying out, meaning both local shortages and a cramp in exports. To top it off, once our (literally) oil-driven society collapses, world trade will grind to a halt.
 
Why limit to fossil fuels? The idea that living standards can't improve is dependent on static technology. And that hasn't been true for 300 years.
You are confused. Technology is degrading the Earth's ultimate carrying capacity, not expanding it.

Every new way we find to rape the Earth (for the rare metals needed to make Prius batteries for example) is creating a less human friendly planet.

What makes this difficult to grasp is that the effects of our actions won't be apparent for many years (though this seems to be accelerating faster than scientists can keep up with predicting it).

More technology is not the solution nor will it ever make it possible for the whole world to live grotesquely lavish lifestyles.
 
It is only possible that Planet Earth be able to sustain 7 billion middle-class people with new technologies. At some point in the future, we will see more vertical farming to feed everyone up to middle-class level.

I would hope the world will get rid of povery and there would be no poor people.
But I have to confess I definitely would not want everyone to live like me. Or else I would not feel exclusive anymore. My family is a USD decamillionaire, in society and economy there are not enough places for everyone live in the upper-tier of the pyramid



You are confused. Technology is degrading the Earth's ultimate carrying capacity, not expanding it.

Every new way we find to rape the Earth (for the rare metals needed to make Prius batteries for example) is creating a less human friendly planet.

What makes this difficult to grasp is that the effects of our actions won't be apparent for many years (though this seems to be accelerating faster than scientists can keep up with predicting it).

More technology is not the solution nor will it ever make it possible for the whole world to live grotesquely lavish lifestyles.

Large Hadron Collider could unlock some new technologies in the future, free-energy might be one of them. Geothermal and Solar panel is producing energy that were once unavailable. Without technology such as electricity and modern farming, the large middle-class segment in developed countries today would not have existed. Technology do unlock many possibilities
 
This is discussed in one of the last chapters of "Collapse." I think the last chapter. IIRC there are not enough resources (food, water, energy) to sustain even the population of China reaching American levels of consumption, much less the world.

While people in the US will sue to prevent people from engaging in some of the most simple energy saving behaviour. Such as using a clothes line and the free sun to do laundry rather then use a dryer.

Its insane that simple things can easily reduce consumption are considered an attack on the American way of life.
 
Large Hadron Collider could unlock some new technologies in the future, free-energy might be one of them. Geothermal and Solar panel is producing energy that were once unavailable.
Free, clean energy would be nice but I don't think anyone's close to that.

The building of solar panels requires a lot of fossil energy at present. I'd love to see rapid improvements in that technology, solar "panels" as thin as duct tape & simpler to produce. However, centalized energy companies would lose out big if that happened.

Without technology such as electricity and modern farming, the large middle-class segment in developed countries today would not have existed. Technology do unlock many possibilities
Yes but at what cost? We're destroying the oceans, forests, devastating topsoil. We're living large in the short term at the expense of our grandchildren.
 
Vertical agriculture, in-vitro meat, solar roads...the list of emerging technologies is countless.
 
It really really really drives me crazy when I see people driving around in giant vans or SUVs or pickup trucks alone and they don't need them. Especially when they're very shiny and clean.

Point taken, but that's not really fair. For all you know they're just darting out to the store while the kids are home. And since they don't have a dedicated short-trip vehicle that's all they have.
 
You are confused. Technology is degrading the Earth's ultimate carrying capacity, not expanding it.

Every new way we find to rape the Earth (for the rare metals needed to make Prius batteries for example) is creating a less human friendly planet.

What makes this difficult to grasp is that the effects of our actions won't be apparent for many years (though this seems to be accelerating faster than scientists can keep up with predicting it).

More technology is not the solution nor will it ever make it possible for the whole world to live grotesquely lavish lifestyles.



The Earth's "carrying capacity" 100 years ago was maybe 2billion people. Now it is at least 7billion. The difference, technology.

A billion people in the world today live as poorly as all of the world's population 400 years ago. The other 6 billion live to some degree better. At least 2 billion live much better, in many respects, now than kings lived 400 years ago.

Tech did that.
 
It is impossible for the entire world to be middle class, as the bar of being considered middle class in terms of wealth would be raised higher.
 
Back
Top Bottom