Coronavirus 2: the Flattening

[red_elk]

Red Elk you guys all good?

Yeah, they test a lot, peak is expected in 10-14 days from now. Many detected cases are young people, so case fatality rate is lower comparing to Europe.
Hospital is almost ready, no problems with food and other essentials.

 

[Arwon]

 

[red_elk]

By mortality dynamics per million, two worst countries are Spain and Belgium. Italy, France and Netherlands are also bad.
USA is a bit better, almost exactly follows Switzerland and Sweden path. There can be 30-35 thousand deaths in US after next 9 days, if it continues to follow Switzerland.

Better dynamics in Australia, Norway, Greece, almost all Eastern Europe and former USSR. Except Moldova and Estonia.
South Korea doing great.
No reliable numbers for Japan and Russia yet (less than one death per million).

 

[Zardnaar]

Feel bad for Moldova, poorest or second poorest country in Europe. Older population.

 

[The_J]

Some European countries want to lighten the restrictions.
Funnily none of them have a steadily declining infection rate, so no clue why they're getting onto this right now.

 

[Samson]

Some European countries want to lighten the restrictions.
Funnily none of them have a steadily declining infection rate, so no clue why they're getting onto this right now.

Yeah, I agree. We have the news on the lightening of restrictions in Wuhan, but this is after an almost complete stop of new infections, and the restrictions still seem tighter than we have in most of europe. I do not like the compulsory tracking app on the phones, but I do not understand why temperatures are not being taken everywhere such as supermarkets and polling stations.

 

[red_elk]

Wubei

Huhan

 

[EnglishEdward]

Some European countries want to lighten the restrictions.
Funnily none of them have a steadily declining infection rate, so no clue why they're getting onto this right now.

Not just Europe, but I too find this strange.

There are to my mind likely to be three quite differing reasons:

(a) The minority view, best to ignore this plague, accept a ~ 2% die off and keep the economy going

(b) Wishful thinking

(c) Those who think that it is better to keep hinting that the restrictions may be lifted before too long
as people may then accept the restrictions for the time being, whereas if they are told that successfully
flattening the peak lengthens it and may require 6, 12, 18 months lock down, the people will ignore it.

 

[Hakim]

Some numbers from the daily press conference on Corona.

• Deceased: 687, 98 more than yesterday. Numbers are lagging so today's total is probably slightly higher.
• R0 is estimated to be little bit higher than 1 (yesterday a Norwegian reporter asked about this and the answer was 1.07)
• Charts comparing other Nordic countries (I've not been able to find this) were shown. It was mentioned that Norway's R0 was 0.7.
• Number of cases in southern Sweden is increasing faster.
• There's still spare intensive care capacity in the Stockholm region.

--
Number of deaths in Nordic countries:
Sweden: 687, 6,7 per 100000
Denmark: 203, 3,5 per 100000
Norway: 89, 1,7 per 100000
Finland: 34, 0,6 per 100000
Iceland: 0?

 

[red_elk]

Iceland is 18/mil

 

[Estebonrober]

Yes, that was implied.

To reiterate, I'm asking how you can plot a curve of cases vs time where the area under sums to 800k in September such that it peaks in May and the slope responds appropriately to social restrictions and herd immunity given that as of this date the area under the curve is somewhere between 1300 and 13000.

Here are several simulations showing how that exponential curve can still take off with a stay at home order even. Its just slower. Its also good because I love this guy's math videos especially on Fourier transforms.

 

[Estebonrober]

Some European countries want to lighten the restrictions.
Funnily none of them have a steadily declining infection rate, so no clue why they're getting onto this right now.

I dont even go out that much and this is annooooyyyyyiiiinnnggg. So I'm not surprised people want to get back out there, in the states I chalk it up to wishful thinking and being really stupid.

 

[Zelig]

Because, as @Estebonrober points out, the current area under the curve is likely to be grossly less than what would be under an actual curve for cases. Considering people who are not, and never will be symptomatic there can already be thousands of people being infected every day that will only show up someday (before September) as "well, you had it at some point" when they get tested in conjunction with some routine medical care. The peak of the "actually just getting infected" curve can happen in May and still leave ample opportunity for "widespread testing reveals that the actual number of cases has been..." to show massive growth later.

Consider that in the US about 2000 people per day are dying. That means that about two weeks ago something like a hundred thousand people were catching it every day. But right now in the US there are only 400,000 reported cases total. Clearly, that number is wildly off from the actual number of cases walking around...who in theory are someday going to be identified as "hey you had it."

That theory doesn't jive with the positive rate of tests not increasing and new cases being essentially flat.

Well, it's hard to say without seeing the graph. I assume 800k is the worst case scenario, where you have many thousands of yet asymptomatic and untested cases and restrictions fail to stop exponential spread until its peak in May.

No, please actually read my post. As I've said, 800k is explicitly the "probable case", not the worst case, and there's no reason to believe restrictions in mid-March would somehow result in a peak in mid-May. (Unless the restrictions are mostly ineffective and result in significant herd immunity by Mid-May, which breaks other assumptions.)

Here are several simulations showing how that exponential curve can still take off with a stay at home order even. Its just slower. Its also good because I love this guy's math videos especially on Fourier transforms.

I can't watch video, do you have a written source for the same thing?

 

[Estebonrober]

That theory doesn't jive with the positive rate of tests not increasing and new cases being essentially flat.



No, please actually read my post. As I've said, 800k is explicitly the "probable case", not the worst case, and there's no reason to believe restrictions in mid-March would somehow result in a peak in mid-May. (Unless the restrictions are mostly ineffective and result in significant herd immunity by Mid-May, which breaks other assumptions.)



I can't watch video, do you have a written source for the same thing?

Unfortunately no

Essentially your restrictions aren't nearly as effective as you think they are. . .

 

[Hrothbern]

Here are several simulations showing how that exponential curve can still take off with a stay at home order even. Its just slower. Its also good because I love this guy's math videos especially on Fourier transforms.

It's nice to explain a lot of the effects of some factors.
really
but

What is does however NOT do is to apply the factor household size combined with the standard policy in western countries to NOT separate a household when one is infected. It just assumes that every person is an individual living apart.
This has profound effects on the dynamics

The other factor not adressed by the model is the bandwidth of social contacts per individual up to how devastating superspreaders are at the onset of a epidemy.
(for example a superspreader has a contact circle 5 times as big as average. => 5 times as high likelyhood to get infected AND 5 times as high likeyhood to infect others when infected)
But also: once ALL superspreaders are immune (or dead) the average R of the remaining people goes down strongly !!!
This means not a herd immunity but it does give a similar effect: it reduces R

Etc, etc.

Would be nice if some more mature models are shared with us.. the public.
And not only Covid for Dummies models... first chapter only.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

This guy on reddit wrote out how he thinks Trump is profiteering off the virus:

The Trump administration and the GOP would have us get sick and die while they profit off of tax dollars.

Want to know how it works?

1.) Eliminate oversight of the spending of nearly a trillion dollars of tax dollars: https://thehill.com/regulation/cour...lus-opens-new-front-in-trumps-oversight-fight

2.) Aquire the authority to command which businesses get which contracts:

3.) Have trusted people stand up companies through which the money can be funneled (3 week old company, founded through a loan approved via the Coronavirus Stimulus bill, is now the center of medical supply distribution): https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/27/republican-fundraiser-company-coronavirus-152184 “I don’t want to overstate, but we probably represent the largest global supply chain for Covid-19 supplies right now,” he said. “We are getting ready to fill 100 million-unit mask orders.”

4.) Have the federal government sell, at a reduced price, it’s strategic stockpile to the new companies, run by your buddies: https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/1245841458323771393

5.) Have the states bid on the supplies, driving up the price:

6.) Have the federal government spend taxpayer dollars to ship supplies purchased from China to these brand new private companies: https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...witter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_term=nprnews

7.) Eliminate the competition. Attack any company that doesn’t play ball. https://mothership.sg/2020/04/trump-3m-10-million-masks/

https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/fwu2m0/hospitals_say_feds_are_seizing_masks_and_other/


Also, doctors and nurses are having their pay cut in the middle of this crisis, because late stage capitalism is worse than the virus:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/emergency-doctors-hospitals-losing-pay-covid/index.html

...and the hospital lobby fought to have federal funds NOT pay for uninsured covid patients.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/poli...eatment-covid-trump-administration/index.html

edit: sorry that the forum software converted some links in the quote to mini-videos.

 

[Estebonrober]

This guy on reddit wrote out how he thinks Trump is profiteering off the virus:


https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/fwu2m0/hospitals_say_feds_are_seizing_masks_and_other/


Also, doctors and nurses are having their pay cut in the middle of this crisis, because late stage capitalism is worse than the virus:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/emergency-doctors-hospitals-losing-pay-covid/index.html

...and the hospital lobby fought to have federal funds NOT pay for uninsured covid patients.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/poli...eatment-covid-trump-administration/index.html

edit: sorry that the forum software converted some links in the quote to mini-videos.

This whole mess is a massively immoral mess of late capitalism. Its disgusting on soooo many levels.

 

[red_elk]

No, please actually read my post. As I've said, 800k is explicitly the "probable case", not the worst case, and there's no reason to believe restrictions in mid-March would somehow result in a peak in mid-May. (Unless the restrictions are mostly ineffective and result in significant herd immunity by Mid-May, which breaks other assumptions.)

Very strict and effective measures would kill the outbreak faster, probably in a month or so. Ineffective restrictions would also result in faster (but also disastrous) peak.
I believe realistic ones will be somewhere in between, flattening the curve and further delaying the peak. 2 months time seems reasonable.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

This whole mess is a massively immoral mess of late capitalism. Its disgusting on soooo many levels.

The most damning part about all of this is not that Trump is doing it but that he will get away with it and maybe even win reelection. This is what America wants and it gets what it deserves. jokermeme.jpg

 

[Hrothbern]

Yeah, I agree. We have the news on the lightening of restrictions in Wuhan, but this is after an almost complete stop of new infections, and the restrictions still seem tighter than we have in most of europe. I do not like the compulsory tracking app on the phones, but I do not understand why temperatures are not being taken everywhere such as supermarkets and polling stations.

Perhaps we go the direction of continuously online app tracking of location and fever.
For this pandemia a bit late, but there will be a next.. there will again be a delay between outbreak and vaccin, there will again be a scarcity for the appropiate testkits and therefore the need for a first detection indicator,

Fever tracking as proxi by measuring heart rate differences by a simple fitbit.
(in rest your heart rate goes up approx 10% per 1 C higher temperature)

And it does not need that much mobile device to measure oxygen saturation as well (done with color measuring through for example a fingertop)
Oxygen saturation measurement effective in measuring affected lungs and general health risk.
And just as with fitbits, mobile oxygen saturation devices, developed also for sport fanatics, are small and cheap.

And an app on your mobile to gather that info over time + question list to have a professional indicator for actions.

Whathever our fears for privacy.... once such solutions are available for everyone and work.... I doubt we (The People and governments) are going to prefer full economical meltdowns as alternative.