Coronavirus 2: the Flattening

[red_elk]

Have they tried forsythia already?

 

[Birdjaguar]

And that's all I'm gonna say...

Lordy! You lose an argument then construct something that looks like you are correct from disconnected pieces from different times and places.

I can do that too:

we need to let people live on the streets and die

And that's all I am going to say.

 

[Lemon Merchant]

Moderator Action: I have moved the markets discussion to this thread. Please have your discussion there. This thread is about the Covid-19 virus. Thank you.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

PBS is interviewing some EMT's that are working 24 hour shifts fighting the virus in NY. That is, they work those shifts in between their 2 other jobs they have to work to make rent due to their EMT wages being so low. And they don't even have health insurance and are exposed day-in and day-out to the virus. If they get sick, they couldn't afford their own services to get help.

*$%& America

 

[Ajidica]

PBS is interviewing some EMT's that are working 24 hour shifts fighting the virus in NY. That is, they work those shifts in between their 2 other jobs they have to work to make rent due to their EMT wages being so low. And they don't even have health insurance and are exposed day-in and day-out to the virus. If they get sick, they couldn't afford their own services to get help.

*$%& America

That's terrible.

I can't even think of a sassy meme to include.

 

[Zelig]

My provincial government have released projection numbers that don't make any sense to me.

Current cases: 1373 confirmed
Population: 4.4 million
Schools, non-essential businesses, etc. have been closed for three weeks already.
Daily new cases and percentage of tests returning positive have been flat at ~100 and 2% respectively.

Projections:
Peak: mid-May
Current restrictions in place until at least end of May.
Up to 800k infections by end of summer under probable scenario.

???

 

[innonimatu]

Seeing many predictions that do not make sense. It's incompetents trying to do political management of the crisis, covering their ass.

 

[Zelig]

Fun new law in Singapore: COVID-19: Social gatherings of any size in both private and public spaces prohibited under new Bill

 

[Kaitzilla]

Have any lupus or rheumatoid arthritis patients who use hydroxychloroquine regularly contracted Covid-19?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydroxychloroquine

Hydroxychloroquine was approved for medical use in the United States in 1955.[2]
It is on the World Health Organization's List of Essential Medicines, the safest and most effective medicines needed in a health system.[6]
In 2017, it was the 128th-most-prescribed medication in the United States, with more than five million prescriptions.[7]

If some of the regular users of this drug are infected, that would throw some cold water on Trump's miracle drug.
If none of them are infected, maybe it does have some promise as a treatment.

 

[Zardnaar]

3rd day in a row of declining numbers.

50 new cases.
1 death (total).

 

[Estebonrober]

My provincial government have released projection numbers that don't make any sense to me.

Current cases: 1373 confirmed
Population: 4.4 million
Schools, non-essential businesses, etc. have been closed for three weeks already.
Daily new cases and percentage of tests returning positive have been flat at ~100 and 2% respectively.

Projections:
Peak: mid-May
Current restrictions in place until at least end of May.
Up to 800k infections by end of summer under probable scenario.

???

so given current testing abilities in most places your actual caseload is likely as much as 100k currently. Given spread rates that are beginning to finally become more clear form China( they don't shutdown the world's manufacturing base for fun times) without lock down you'd have 80% infected by the end of the summer with at least 1% dead, 3.2 mil~ w/ 32k dead in your province alone?

I mean this is all supposition, but its not likely that far off considering whats becoming clear. I would really like to see China's real numbers in December into January. Whatever scared them so bad then finally scared a bunch of yahoo ignorant cowboys in DC when it became clear we were looking at spread of similar scale.

 

[Zelig]

so given current testing abilities in most places your actual caseload is likely as much as 100k currently. Given spread rates that are beginning to finally become more clear form China( they don't shutdown the world's manufacturing base for fun times) without lock down you'd have 80% infected by the end of the summer with at least 1% dead, 3.2 mil~ w/ 32k dead in your province alone?

I mean this is all supposition, but its not likely that far off considering whats becoming clear. I would really like to see China's real numbers in December into January. Whatever scared them so bad then finally scared a bunch of yahoo ignorant cowboys in DC when it became clear we were looking at spread of similar scale.

That doesn't help reconcile the provided numbers. 100k cases currently does nothing to explain how it's possible for all of the following to be true:

a) Peak in May.
b) Current restrictions in place from three weeks ago until at least end of May.
c) Up to 800k (18% of population) infected by September.

 

[red_elk]

That doesn't help reconcile the provided numbers. 100k cases currently does nothing to explain how it's possible for all of the following to be true:

a) Peak in May.
b) Current restrictions in place from three weeks ago until at least end of May.
c) Up to 800k (18% of population) infected by September.

800k includes those who recovered or died.

 

[Zelig]

800k includes those who recovered or died.

Yes, that was implied.

To reiterate, I'm asking how you can plot a curve of cases vs time where the area under sums to 800k in September such that it peaks in May and the slope responds appropriately to social restrictions and herd immunity given that as of this date the area under the curve is somewhere between 1300 and 13000.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Yes, that was implied.

To reiterate, I'm asking how you can plot a curve of cases vs time where the area under sums to 800k in September such that it peaks in May and the slope responds appropriately to social restrictions and herd immunity given that as of this date the area under the curve is somewhere between 1300 and 13000.

Because, as @Estebonrober points out, the current area under the curve is likely to be grossly less than what would be under an actual curve for cases. Considering people who are not, and never will be symptomatic there can already be thousands of people being infected every day that will only show up someday (before September) as "well, you had it at some point" when they get tested in conjunction with some routine medical care. The peak of the "actually just getting infected" curve can happen in May and still leave ample opportunity for "widespread testing reveals that the actual number of cases has been..." to show massive growth later.

Consider that in the US about 2000 people per day are dying. That means that about two weeks ago something like a hundred thousand people were catching it every day. But right now in the US there are only 400,000 reported cases total. Clearly, that number is wildly off from the actual number of cases walking around...who in theory are someday going to be identified as "hey you had it."

 

[red_elk]

Yes, that was implied.

To reiterate, I'm asking how you can plot a curve of cases vs time where the area under sums to 800k in September such that it peaks in May and the slope responds appropriately to social restrictions and herd immunity given that as of this date the area under the curve is somewhere between 1300 and 13000.

Well, it's hard to say without seeing the graph. I assume 800k is the worst case scenario, where you have many thousands of yet asymptomatic and untested cases and restrictions fail to stop exponential spread until its peak in May.

 

[Zardnaar]

Red Elk you guys all good?

 

[Hakim]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...ms-delay-supply-toilet-paper-ingredient-pulp/

Clearly, TP hoarders have insight and wisdom we mortals lack.

 

[Arwon]

Just the 2 new cases today, one yesterday, none yet identified by random community testing, all linked to known cases or traced to beyond the ACT.

 

[Zardnaar]

Just the 2 new cases today, one yesterday, none yet identified by random community testing, all linked to known cases or traced to beyond the ACT.

You guys dodged a bullet.